金融化与实体经济:金融本质再考察
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摘要
本文首先考察了自1870年以来两轮经济金融化的特征事实;然后基于相关理论,以16个国家发生的系统性银行危机为样本,从增长与分配两个维度实证分析了危机前各国实体经济与金融系统的普遍特征;最后从金融的内生性与风险性角度阐述金融的本质。主要结论有:第一,19世纪70年代到1929年大萧条前的第一轮金融化特征为经济货币化与商业银行资产扩张,20世纪70年代至今的第二轮金融化特征为金融结构向市场主导型变迁,银行资产结构也向市场化方向调整;第二,适度金融化有利于经济增长,改善收入分配,而过度金融化普遍导致资本积累放缓、生产率下降、贫富差距扩大等现象,这些现象又会进一步强化实体经济与金融失衡;第三,金融部门对实体经济具有内生性影响,促使实体部门风险结构复杂化,需要相应的政策抑制过度金融化倾向。
This paper first examines the characteristics of the two rounds of economic financialization since 1870, and based on relevant theories, taking the systematic banking crisis in 16 countries as a sample, empirically analyzing the pre-crisis from the two dimensions of growth and distribution and the universal characteristics of the real economy and financial systems of these countries. This paper also expounds the essence of finance from the perspective of financial endogenous and risk. The main conclusions are as follows: First, the first round of financialization before the Great Depression from the 1870 s to 1929 was characterized by economic monetization and commercial bank asset expansion. The second round of financialization in the 1970 s to the present has changed the financial structure to market-oriented, and the bank's asset structure has also been adjusted to the market. Second, moderate financialization is conducive to economic growth and improved income distribution. These phenomena will further strengthen the real economy and financial imbalances. Third, the financial sector has an endogenous impact on the real economy. To complicate the risk structure of the entity sector, corresponding policies are needed to suppress the tendency of excessive financialization.
This paper first examines the characteristics of the two rounds of economic financialization since 1870, and based on relevant theories, taking the systematic banking crisis in 16 countries as a sample, empirically analyzing the pre-crisis from the two dimensions of growth and distribution and the universal characteristics of the real economy and financial systems of these countries. This paper also expounds the essence of finance from the perspective of financial endogenous and risk. The main conclusions are as follows: First, the first round of financialization before the Great Depression from the 1870 s to 1929 was characterized by economic monetization and commercial bank asset expansion. The second round of financialization in the 1970 s to the present has changed the financial structure to market-oriented, and the bank's asset structure has also been adjusted to the market. Second, moderate financialization is conducive to economic growth and improved income distribution. These phenomena will further strengthen the real economy and financial imbalances. Third, the financial sector has an endogenous impact on the real economy. To complicate the risk structure of the entity sector, corresponding policies are needed to suppress the tendency of excessive financialization.
引文
(1)International Monetary Fund, Global Financial Stability Report October 2017: Is Growth at Risk?Washington D. C., 2017: 32-48.
(2)数据来源:国际清算银行(BIS)非金融部门信用统计数据。
(3)李晶:《虚拟经济与实体经济背离对现代金融危机的影响研究》,《经济问题》2015年第1期。
(4)张晓朴、朱太辉:《金融体系与实体经济关系的反思》,《国际金融研究》2014年第3期。
(5)王文:《金融服务实体经济为何难》,《中国金融》2014年第12期。
(6)Epstein G.,“Financialization, Rentier Interests, and Central Bank Policy”,Macroeconomic Policy Central Banking & International Finance, 2002: 3.
(7)Epstein G A.,Financialization and the World Economy,Edward Elgar, 2006,pp.3-16.
(8)1965年至1985年间,韩国从10.2%提高到39.6%,新加坡从54.2%提高到78.8%。数据来源:麦金农:《经济自由化的顺序:向市场经济过渡中的金融控制》,中国金融出版社,1993年,第17页。
(9)Allen F, Bartiloro L, Kowalewski O.,“Does Economic Structure Determine Financial Structure?”Working Papers, 2016: 17.
(10)以德意志银行为例,其交易资产占总资产的比例从2000年的30.9%增加到2006年的45.9%,西欧国家以外的业务敞口占总敞口的比例从2000年的25.8%提高到2007年的44.7%。资料来源:Hardie I, Howarth D., “Die Krise but not La Crise? The Financial Crisis and the Transformation of German and French Banking Systems”,Journal of Common Market Studies, 2010, 47(5):1017-1039.
(11)Borio C E V, Disyatat P., “Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Link or No Link?”BIS Working Papers, 2011, 68(3):1-18.
(12)张成思、张步昙:《再论金融与实体经济:经济金融化视角》,《经济学动态》2015年第6期。
(13)Reinhart C M, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,Princeton University Press, 2009,pp.21-33.
(14)Reinhart C M, Rogoff K S., “From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis”, American Economic Review, 2011, 101 (5): 1676-1706.
(15)Greenwood J, Jovanovic B., “Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income”,Journal of Political Economy, 1988, 98(5):1076-1107.
(16)Levine R., “Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence”,Social Science Electronic Publishing, 2004, 1, part a(5):37-40.
(17)Reinhart C M, Rogoff K S., “Growth in a Time of Debt”,American Economic Review, 2010, 100(2):573-578.
(18)Cecchetti S G, Mohanty M S, Zampolli F., “The Real Effects of Debt”,BIS Working Papers, 2011, 68(3):145-196.
(19)Berkes E, Panizza U, Arcand J L., “Too Much Finance?”IMF Working Papers, 2012: 23.
(20)亚洲金融危机前,新兴市场国家宏观经济运行整体平稳,财政状况良好,并未出现危机的明显诱因。学者们提出新的金融危机模型加以解释。其中,道德风险被认为是引发危机的重要原因。虽然大多新兴市场国家宏观经济运行良好,但这些国家政府的隐性担保导致金融机构过度举借外债,同样增加了金融系统的脆弱性。
(21)陈雨露、马勇:《泡沫、实体经济与金融危机:一个周期分析框架》,《金融监管研究》2012年第1期。
(22)Cecchetti S G, Kharroubi E., “Why Does Financial Sector Growth Crowd Out Real Economic Growth?”Social Science Electronic Publishing, 2015: 3-4.
(23)Cecchetti S G, Kharroubi E., “Reassessing the Impact of Finance on Growth”,BIS Working Papers, 2012: 14.
(24)张成思、张步昙:《中国实业投资率下降之谜:经济金融化视角》,《经济研究》2016年第12期。
(25)Stockhammer E., “Financialisation and the Slowdown of Accumulation”,Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2004, 28(5): 719-741.
(26)Khatiwada S., “Did the Financial Sector Profit at the Expense of the Rest of the Economy? Evidence from the United States”,International Institute for Labour Studies Discussion Paper, 2010: 12-13.
(27)Orhangazi., “Financialisation and Capital Accumulation in the Non-financial Corporate Sector”,MPRA Paper, 2008, 32(6):863-886.
(28)Tori D, Onaran,“The Effects of Financialization on Investment: Evidence from Firm-level Data for the UK”,Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2015: 1-24.
(29)Greenwood J, Jovanovic B., “Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income”,Journal of Political Economy, 1988, 98(5):1076-1107.
(30)Tan H B, Law S H., “Nonlinear Dynamics of the Finance-inequality Nexus in Developing Countries”,Journal of Economic Inequality, 2012, 10(4):551-563.
(31)Jauch S, Watzka S., “Financial Development and Income Inequality: a Panel Data Approach”,Empirical Economics, 2016, 51(1):291-314.
(32)④ Hein E., “Finance-dominated Capitalism and Re-distribution of Income: a Kaleckian Perspective”,Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2015, 39: 907-934.
(33)Philippon T, Reshef A., “Wages and Human Capital in the U.S. Finance Industry: 1909—2006”,Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2012, 127(4):1551-1609.
(34)殷剑峰、王增武:《分配差距扩大、信用扩张和金融危机——关于美国次贷危机的理论思考》,《经济研究》2018年第2期。
(35)Morelli S, Atkinson A.,“ Inequality and Crises Revisited”,Economia Politica, 2015, 32(1): 31-51.
(36)Atkinson A B, Morelli S., “Economic Crises and Inequality”,Social Science Electronic Publishing, 2011: 13.
(37)Rajan R G., Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy,Princeton University Press, 2011: 31.
(38)Perez C., “The Double Bubble at the Turn of the Century: Technological Roots and Structural Implications”,Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2013, 33(4):779-805.
(39)Vercelli A., “Financialization in a Long-run Perspective: An Evolutionary Approach”,International Journal of Political Economy, 2013, 42(4): 19-46.
(40)阿代尔·特纳:《债务和魔鬼》,中信出版社, 2016年,第53-63页。
(2)数据来源:国际清算银行(BIS)非金融部门信用统计数据。
(3)李晶:《虚拟经济与实体经济背离对现代金融危机的影响研究》,《经济问题》2015年第1期。
(4)张晓朴、朱太辉:《金融体系与实体经济关系的反思》,《国际金融研究》2014年第3期。
(5)王文:《金融服务实体经济为何难》,《中国金融》2014年第12期。
(6)Epstein G.,“Financialization, Rentier Interests, and Central Bank Policy”,Macroeconomic Policy Central Banking & International Finance, 2002: 3.
(7)Epstein G A.,Financialization and the World Economy,Edward Elgar, 2006,pp.3-16.
(8)1965年至1985年间,韩国从10.2%提高到39.6%,新加坡从54.2%提高到78.8%。数据来源:麦金农:《经济自由化的顺序:向市场经济过渡中的金融控制》,中国金融出版社,1993年,第17页。
(9)Allen F, Bartiloro L, Kowalewski O.,“Does Economic Structure Determine Financial Structure?”Working Papers, 2016: 17.
(10)以德意志银行为例,其交易资产占总资产的比例从2000年的30.9%增加到2006年的45.9%,西欧国家以外的业务敞口占总敞口的比例从2000年的25.8%提高到2007年的44.7%。资料来源:Hardie I, Howarth D., “Die Krise but not La Crise? The Financial Crisis and the Transformation of German and French Banking Systems”,Journal of Common Market Studies, 2010, 47(5):1017-1039.
(11)Borio C E V, Disyatat P., “Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Link or No Link?”BIS Working Papers, 2011, 68(3):1-18.
(12)张成思、张步昙:《再论金融与实体经济:经济金融化视角》,《经济学动态》2015年第6期。
(13)Reinhart C M, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,Princeton University Press, 2009,pp.21-33.
(14)Reinhart C M, Rogoff K S., “From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis”, American Economic Review, 2011, 101 (5): 1676-1706.
(15)Greenwood J, Jovanovic B., “Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income”,Journal of Political Economy, 1988, 98(5):1076-1107.
(16)Levine R., “Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence”,Social Science Electronic Publishing, 2004, 1, part a(5):37-40.
(17)Reinhart C M, Rogoff K S., “Growth in a Time of Debt”,American Economic Review, 2010, 100(2):573-578.
(18)Cecchetti S G, Mohanty M S, Zampolli F., “The Real Effects of Debt”,BIS Working Papers, 2011, 68(3):145-196.
(19)Berkes E, Panizza U, Arcand J L., “Too Much Finance?”IMF Working Papers, 2012: 23.
(20)亚洲金融危机前,新兴市场国家宏观经济运行整体平稳,财政状况良好,并未出现危机的明显诱因。学者们提出新的金融危机模型加以解释。其中,道德风险被认为是引发危机的重要原因。虽然大多新兴市场国家宏观经济运行良好,但这些国家政府的隐性担保导致金融机构过度举借外债,同样增加了金融系统的脆弱性。
(21)陈雨露、马勇:《泡沫、实体经济与金融危机:一个周期分析框架》,《金融监管研究》2012年第1期。
(22)Cecchetti S G, Kharroubi E., “Why Does Financial Sector Growth Crowd Out Real Economic Growth?”Social Science Electronic Publishing, 2015: 3-4.
(23)Cecchetti S G, Kharroubi E., “Reassessing the Impact of Finance on Growth”,BIS Working Papers, 2012: 14.
(24)张成思、张步昙:《中国实业投资率下降之谜:经济金融化视角》,《经济研究》2016年第12期。
(25)Stockhammer E., “Financialisation and the Slowdown of Accumulation”,Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2004, 28(5): 719-741.
(26)Khatiwada S., “Did the Financial Sector Profit at the Expense of the Rest of the Economy? Evidence from the United States”,International Institute for Labour Studies Discussion Paper, 2010: 12-13.
(27)Orhangazi., “Financialisation and Capital Accumulation in the Non-financial Corporate Sector”,MPRA Paper, 2008, 32(6):863-886.
(28)Tori D, Onaran,“The Effects of Financialization on Investment: Evidence from Firm-level Data for the UK”,Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2015: 1-24.
(29)Greenwood J, Jovanovic B., “Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income”,Journal of Political Economy, 1988, 98(5):1076-1107.
(30)Tan H B, Law S H., “Nonlinear Dynamics of the Finance-inequality Nexus in Developing Countries”,Journal of Economic Inequality, 2012, 10(4):551-563.
(31)Jauch S, Watzka S., “Financial Development and Income Inequality: a Panel Data Approach”,Empirical Economics, 2016, 51(1):291-314.
(32)④ Hein E., “Finance-dominated Capitalism and Re-distribution of Income: a Kaleckian Perspective”,Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2015, 39: 907-934.
(33)Philippon T, Reshef A., “Wages and Human Capital in the U.S. Finance Industry: 1909—2006”,Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2012, 127(4):1551-1609.
(34)殷剑峰、王增武:《分配差距扩大、信用扩张和金融危机——关于美国次贷危机的理论思考》,《经济研究》2018年第2期。
(35)Morelli S, Atkinson A.,“ Inequality and Crises Revisited”,Economia Politica, 2015, 32(1): 31-51.
(36)Atkinson A B, Morelli S., “Economic Crises and Inequality”,Social Science Electronic Publishing, 2011: 13.
(37)Rajan R G., Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy,Princeton University Press, 2011: 31.
(38)Perez C., “The Double Bubble at the Turn of the Century: Technological Roots and Structural Implications”,Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2013, 33(4):779-805.
(39)Vercelli A., “Financialization in a Long-run Perspective: An Evolutionary Approach”,International Journal of Political Economy, 2013, 42(4): 19-46.
(40)阿代尔·特纳:《债务和魔鬼》,中信出版社, 2016年,第53-63页。