我国资源型地区经济可持续增长问题研究——基于技术进步视角的再分析
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摘要
文章通过Malmquist指数分解法将技术进步分解为技术效率与技术变化,并从技术效率与技术变化出发,考察其对我国资源型省份经济可持续增长的影响。首先运用面板VAR模型(PVAR)对我国26个省份1996—2017年的面板数据进行深入剖析,以分析资源依赖、技术进步与地区经济发展的内在交互关系。随后,具体将我国资源型地区划分为中部、西部和东部,利用动态面板模型,研究不同资源型区域经济可持续增长问题。结果表明,我国整体层面存在"资源诅咒"现象,制约了地区经济发展,而技术进步可以显著刺激经济增长,缓解"资源诅咒"现象发生。此外,通过对中部、西部和东部进行分区域研究,发现除技术变化外,技术效率的提升可以有效缓解中西部地区"资源诅咒"现象,而技术变化则是破解东部地区"资源诅咒"的关键。进一步对影响技术水平的各变量进行分析后,认为金融发展与人力资本的投入可以显著提高中西部地区的技术水平,而对外开放度和外资利用率对东部技术水平的提升具有显著促进作用。
This paper decomposes technological progress into technical efficiency and technological change through Malmquist exponential decomposition method, and studies its impact on the sustainable economic growth of resourcebased provinces in China from the perspective of technological efficiency and technological change. This paper first uses the panel VAR model(PVAR) to deeply analyze the panel data of 26 provinces in China from 1996 to 2017 to analyze the internal interaction between resource dependence, technological progress and regional economic development. Subsequently,this paper specifically divides China's resource-based regions into the central, western and eastern regions, and uses the dynamic panel model to study the sustainable economic growth of different resource-based regions. The results show that there is a phenomenon of "resource curse" on the whole level of China, which restricts regional economic development, and technological progress can significantly stimulate economic growth and alleviate the phenomenon of "resource curse". In addition, through sub-regional research on the central, western and eastern regions, it is found that in addition to technological changes, the improvement of technical efficiency can effectively alleviate the "resource curse" phenomenon in the central and western regions, while the technological change is to crack the "resource curse" in the east region. Furthermore, after analyzing the variables affecting the technical level, this paper believes that financial development and human capital investment can significantly improve the technical level of the central and western regions, while the degree of openness and foreign capital utilization have significantly promoted the technological level of the east.
This paper decomposes technological progress into technical efficiency and technological change through Malmquist exponential decomposition method, and studies its impact on the sustainable economic growth of resourcebased provinces in China from the perspective of technological efficiency and technological change. This paper first uses the panel VAR model(PVAR) to deeply analyze the panel data of 26 provinces in China from 1996 to 2017 to analyze the internal interaction between resource dependence, technological progress and regional economic development. Subsequently,this paper specifically divides China's resource-based regions into the central, western and eastern regions, and uses the dynamic panel model to study the sustainable economic growth of different resource-based regions. The results show that there is a phenomenon of "resource curse" on the whole level of China, which restricts regional economic development, and technological progress can significantly stimulate economic growth and alleviate the phenomenon of "resource curse". In addition, through sub-regional research on the central, western and eastern regions, it is found that in addition to technological changes, the improvement of technical efficiency can effectively alleviate the "resource curse" phenomenon in the central and western regions, while the technological change is to crack the "resource curse" in the east region. Furthermore, after analyzing the variables affecting the technical level, this paper believes that financial development and human capital investment can significantly improve the technical level of the central and western regions, while the degree of openness and foreign capital utilization have significantly promoted the technological level of the east.
引文
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[25]邓晓兰,陈宝东,鄢哲明.资源经济对地方财政收入影响的传导机制、障碍与对策--基于30个煤炭城市的面板数据实证分析[J].经济经纬,2014(1):136-141.
[26]Badeeb R A,Lean H H,Smyth R.Oil curse and finance-growth nexus in Malaysia:The role of investment[J].Energy Economics2016,57:154-165.
[27]Holtz-Eakin D,Newey W,Rosen H S.Estimating vector autoregressions with panel data[J].Econometrica,1988,56(6):1371-1395.
[28]陈柳,刘志彪.本土创新能力、FDI技术外溢与经济增长[J].南开经济研究,2006(3):90-101.
[29]纪玉山,吴勇民.科技创新促进经济增长的微观机理与政策选择[J].经济社会体制比较,2007(5):40-46.
[30]Bhattacharyya S,Hodler R.Do natural resource revenues hinder financial development?The role of political institutions[J].World Development,2014,57:101-113.
[31]郭根龙,杨静.金融发展能缓解资源诅咒吗?--基于中国资源型区域的实证分析[J].经济问题,2017(9):47-52.
[2]Auty R,Warhurst A.Sustainable development in mineral exporting economies[J].Resources Policy,1993,19(1):14-29.
[3]Sachs J D,Warner A M.Fundamental sources of long-run growth[J].American Economic Review,1997,87(2):184-188.
[4]杨莉莉,邵帅,曹建华.资源产业依赖对中国省域经济增长的影响及其传导机制研究--基于空间面板模型的实证考察[J].财经研究,2014(3):4-16.
[5]Kim D H,Lin S C.Natural resources and economic development:New panel evidence[J].Environmental and Resource Economics,2017,66(2):363-391.
[6]Frankel J A.The natural resource curse:A survey of diagnoses and some prescriptions[R].Massachusetts:National Bureau of Economic Research,2012.
[7]邵帅,杨莉莉.自然资源开发内生技术进步与区域经济增长[J].经济研究,2011(2):112-123.
[8]Bjorvatn K,Farzanegan M R,Schneider F.Resource curse and power balance:Evidence from Oil-Rich Countries[J].World Development,2012,40(7):1308-1316.
[9]胡援成,肖德勇.经济发展门槛与自然资源诅咒--基于我国省际层面的面板数据实证研究[J].管理世界,2007(4):15-23.
[10]Romer P M.Increasing returns and long-run growth[J].Journal of Political Economy,1986,94(5):1002-1037.
[11]Lucas Jr R E.On the mechanics of economic development[J]Journal of Monetary Economics,1988,22(1):3-42.
[12]Yang X K,Borland J.A microeconomic mechanism for economic growth[J].Journal of Political Economy,1991,99(3):460-482.
[13]张林.金融发展、科技创新与实体经济增长--基于空间计量的实证研究[J].金融经济学研究,2016(1):14-25.
[14]彭镇华,廖进球,习明明.资本配置效率、经济增长与空间溢出效应[J].证券市场导报,2018(2):22-30.
[15]李政,杨思莹.科技创新、产业升级与经济增长:互动机理与实证检验[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2017(3):41-52.
[16]Gylfason T,Zoega G.Natural resources and economic growth:The role of investment[J].World Economy,2006,29(8):1091-1115.
[17]Liu X H,Buck T.Innovation performance and channels for international technology spillovers:Evidence from Chinese hightech industries[J].Research Policy,2007,36(3):355-366.
[18]杨越,成力为.成本视角下全要素能源生产率评价与解构[J].系统工程理论与实践,2017(9):2306-2319.
[19]Nishimizu M,Page Jr J M.Total factor productivity growth technological progress and technical efficiency change:Dimensions of productivity change in Yugoslavia,1965-1978[J]The Economic Journal,1982,92(368):920-936.
[20]陈勇,李小平.中国工业行业的技术进步与工业经济转型--对工业行业技术进步的DEA法衡量及转型特征分析[J].管理世界,2007(6):56-63.
[21]F?re R,Grosskopf S,Knox Lovell C A.Production Frontiers[M]Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1994.
[22]Ray S C,Desli E.Productivity growth,technical progress,and efficiency change in industrialized countries:Comment[J].The American Economic Review,1997,87(5):1033-1039.
[23]Chung Y H,F?re R,Grosskopf S.Productivity and undesirable outputs:A directional distance function approach[J].Journal of Environmental Management,1997,51(3):229-240.
[24]徐康宁,韩剑.中国区域经济的“资源诅咒”效应:地区差距的另一种解释[J].经济学家,2005(6):97-103.
[25]邓晓兰,陈宝东,鄢哲明.资源经济对地方财政收入影响的传导机制、障碍与对策--基于30个煤炭城市的面板数据实证分析[J].经济经纬,2014(1):136-141.
[26]Badeeb R A,Lean H H,Smyth R.Oil curse and finance-growth nexus in Malaysia:The role of investment[J].Energy Economics2016,57:154-165.
[27]Holtz-Eakin D,Newey W,Rosen H S.Estimating vector autoregressions with panel data[J].Econometrica,1988,56(6):1371-1395.
[28]陈柳,刘志彪.本土创新能力、FDI技术外溢与经济增长[J].南开经济研究,2006(3):90-101.
[29]纪玉山,吴勇民.科技创新促进经济增长的微观机理与政策选择[J].经济社会体制比较,2007(5):40-46.
[30]Bhattacharyya S,Hodler R.Do natural resource revenues hinder financial development?The role of political institutions[J].World Development,2014,57:101-113.
[31]郭根龙,杨静.金融发展能缓解资源诅咒吗?--基于中国资源型区域的实证分析[J].经济问题,2017(9):47-52.