基于系统动力学的校园碳收支测算模型及应用
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摘要
以系统动力学Vensim PLE软件为技术平台,结合Li COR-6400与Li COR-8100观测数据,以浙江农林大学东湖校区为研究对象,建立校园碳收支测算模型,对校园中人类活动系统碳排放与自然生态系统碳收支分别进行了测算,并提出低碳建设参考路径。模型测算结果表明:校园全年整体表现为碳源,年碳排放量为4 147.48 t·a-1,平均单位面积碳排放量为3.24 t·m-2·a-1;人类活动碳排放量5 555.45 t·a-1,人均碳排放强度为24.0 kg·人-1·月-1,其中,生活办公用电排碳量最大。自然生态系统年固碳量1 407.96 t·a-1,季节变化呈现双峰特征,春秋两季较高,冬季最低。单位绿化面积碳吸收量为187.0 g·m-2·月-1。同时,低碳校园情景模拟中通过绿地碳汇、人均用能与交通用能等因素的共同控制,可比原始状态再实现29%的碳排放削减,说明校园低碳建设仍有一定发展空间。
To model the carbon budget trend at Zhejiang A & F University over 2012 and to measure the carbon budget on a campus-level scale,a system dynamics model was developed using Vensim。 The parametric data of the model was based on the observed data from Li-COR 6400 and Li-COR 8100.Results showed that the carbon emission for 2012 was 4 147.48 t·a-1and per square meter discharge of 3.24 t·m-2·a-1on average,meaning the campus was a carbon source to the atmosphere.Carbon emissions from human activities was5 555.45 t·month-1,and per person discharge of 0.024 t·month-1on average.Emissions from electricity consumption were the largest among all kinds of human activities.The carbon sink for plants reached 1 407.96 t·a-1which meant per square meter of green space fixed an average of 187 g·month-1of C.The seasonal change of C sequestration showed bimodal characteristics,appearing higher in spring and autumn,but lowest in winter.Compared to original conditions,by simultaneously controlling the carbon sink for green space(increased to224 g·m-2),the per capita energy consumption(decreased to 428.55 g·d-1),and the transport energy consumption(decreased to 163 kg·d-1);the low-carbon scenario achieved a 29% reduction in carbon emissions.
To model the carbon budget trend at Zhejiang A & F University over 2012 and to measure the carbon budget on a campus-level scale,a system dynamics model was developed using Vensim。 The parametric data of the model was based on the observed data from Li-COR 6400 and Li-COR 8100.Results showed that the carbon emission for 2012 was 4 147.48 t·a-1and per square meter discharge of 3.24 t·m-2·a-1on average,meaning the campus was a carbon source to the atmosphere.Carbon emissions from human activities was5 555.45 t·month-1,and per person discharge of 0.024 t·month-1on average.Emissions from electricity consumption were the largest among all kinds of human activities.The carbon sink for plants reached 1 407.96 t·a-1which meant per square meter of green space fixed an average of 187 g·month-1of C.The seasonal change of C sequestration showed bimodal characteristics,appearing higher in spring and autumn,but lowest in winter.Compared to original conditions,by simultaneously controlling the carbon sink for green space(increased to224 g·m-2),the per capita energy consumption(decreased to 428.55 g·d-1),and the transport energy consumption(decreased to 163 kg·d-1);the low-carbon scenario achieved a 29% reduction in carbon emissions.
引文
[1]何华.华南居住区绿地碳汇作用研究及其在全生命周期碳收支评价中的应用[D]:重庆:重庆大学,2010.HE Hua.Research on Green Space Carbon Sink of Residential Area in South China and its Application in Carbon Budget of Residential Area for Whole Life Circle[D].Chongqing:Chongqing University,2010.
[2]马巾英,尹锴,吝涛.城市复合生态系统碳氧平衡分析[J].环境科学学报,2011,31(8):1808-1816.MA Jinying,YI Kai,LIN Tao.Analysis of the carbon and oxygen balance of acomplex urban ecosystem:a case study in the coastal city of Xiamen[J].Acta Sci Circumst,2011,31(8):1808-1816.
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[4]周志.基于系统动力学的广东省低碳经济发展路径选择[D].广州:华南理工大学,2011.ZHOU Zhi.The Choosing of Low-carbon Economy Development Path of Guangdong Province Based by System Dynamics Theory[D].Guangzhou:South China University of Technology,2011.
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[8]王其藩.系统动力学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1994.
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[10]李雪玉,姚林如,杨锐琦,等.城市碳循环清单及相关对策研究:以南昌市为例[J].全国商情·理论研究,2012(20):12-14.LI Xueyu,YAO Linru,YANG Ruiqi,et al.Research on urban carbon cycle list and relevant countermeasures[J].Business Inf Theor Res,2012(20):12-14.
[11]何华,龙天渝,鄢涛,等.居住区使用阶段碳收支研究[J].煤气与热力,2010,30(4):40-44.HE Hua,LONG Tianyu,YAN Tao,et al.Research on carbon budget during usestage of residential areas[J].Gas&Heat,2010,30(4):40-43.
[12]蒋运生,柴胜丰,唐辉,等.光照强度对广西地不容光合特性和生长的影响[J].广西植物,2009,29(6):792-796.JIANG Yunsheng,CHAI Shengfeng,TANG Hui,et al.Effect of different light intensities on photosynthetic characteristics and growth of Steohania kwangsiensis[J].Guihaia,2009,29(6):792-796.
[13]张光飞,翟书华,苏文华,等.光照和温度对鸟巢蕨光合速率的影响研究[J].昆明学院学报,2008,30(4):62-63.ZHANG Guangfei,ZHAI Shuhua,SU Wenhua,et al.Effects of light intensity and air temperature on the photosynthesis of Neottopters nidus[J].J Kunming Univ,2008,30(4):62-63.
[14]陈柯,王小德.常春油麻藤、中华常春藤和扶芳藤的光合特性比较分析[J].安徽农业大学学报,2008,35(2):196-199.CHEN Ke,WANG Xiaode.Comparative analysis on photosynthetic characteristics and shade tolerance between Mucuna sempervirens,Hedera nepalensis var.sinensi and Euonymus fortunei[J].J Anhui Agric Univ,2008,35(2):196-199.
[15]王红兵,王励勉,秦俊,等.上海地区九种木兰科植物光合特性的研究[J].北方园艺,2008(8):54.WANG Hongbing,WANG Limian,QIN Jun,et al.Research on photosynthesis characteristic of nine species of Magnoliaceae plants in Shanghai[J].Northern Hortic,2008(8):54.
[16]穆大刚,付翔,许华林.5种红树植物光合产量模型研究[J].安徽农业科学,2008,36(35):1535-1535.MU Dagang,FU Xiang,XU Hualin.Study on phtotsynthetic yield model for five Mangrove species[J].J Anhui Agric Sci,2008,36(35):1535-1535.
[17]陈磊,潘青华,金洪.温湿度对紫叶黄栌光合特性变化的影响[J].中国农学通报,2008,24(6):124-128.CHEN Lei,PAN Qinghua,JIN Hong.Research on influence of relative humidity and air temperature on photosynthetic characteristics of Cotinus coggygria prupureus[J].Chin Agric Sci Bull,2008,24(6):124-128.
[18]郭新想.居住区绿化植物固碳能力评价方法研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2010.GUO Xinxiang.Study on Green Plants CO2-fixing Capacity Evaluation Methods in Residential Area[D].Chongqing:Chongqing University,2010.
[19]陈志银.红麻光合、呼吸强度与气象因子关系的研究[J].中国农业气象,1990,11(4):29-32.CHEN Zhiyin.Research on the relationship between photosynthesis,respiration intensity of Kenaf and meteorological factors[J].Chin J Agrometeorol,1990,11(4):29-32.
[20]王淼,刘亚琴,郝占庆,等.长白山阔叶红松林生态系统的呼吸速率[J].2006,17(10):1789-1795.WANG Miao,LIU Yaqin,HAO Zhanqing,et al.Respiration rate of broad leaved Korean pine fo rest ecosystem in Changbai Mountains[J].Chin J Appl Ecol,2006,17(10):1789-1795.
[21]崔骁勇,陈佐忠,陈四清.草地土壤呼吸研究进展[J].生态学报,2001,21(2):315-325.CUI Xiaoyong,CHEN Zuozhong,CHEN Siqing.Progress in research on soil respiration of grasslands[J].Acta Ecol Sin,2001,21(2):315-325.
[22]杜丽君.红壤几种典型利用方式CO2的排放规律及其影响因素[D].武汉:华中农业大学,2006.DU Lijun.CO2Emission Rule and its Influencing Factors of Red Soil in Different Use Types[D].Wuhan:Huazhong Agricultural University,2006.
[23]刘绍辉,方精云,清田信.北京山地温带森林的土壤呼吸[J].植物生态学报,1998,22(2):119-126.LIU Shaohui,FANG Jingyun,QING Tianxin.Soil respritation of mountainous temperate forests in Beijing,China[J].Acta Phytoecol Sin,1998,22(2):119-126.
[24]张宪权.东北地区落叶松人工林土壤呼吸的时空异质性研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2005.ZHANG Xianquan.Larch Plantation’s Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneity of Soil Respiration in Northeast China[D].Shanghai:East China Normal University,2005.
[25]KUCERA C L,KIRKHAM D R.Soil respiration studies in tallgrass prairie in Missouri[J].Ecology,1971,52(5):912-915.
[26]宋永昌,由文辉,王祥荣.城市生态学[M].上海:华东师范大学出版社,2000.
[27]李志鹏.基于系统动力学的城市交通能源消耗与碳排放预测[D].天津:天津大学,2012.LI Zhipeng.The Forecast of the Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission of Urban Traffic Based on System Dynamics-An Empirical Analysis on Tianjin[D].Tianjin:Tianjin University,2012.
[28]DHAKAL S.Urban energy use and carbon emissions from cities in China and policy implications[J].Energ Polic,2009,37(11):4208-4219.
[29]毛军需.太阳辐射度与光照度换算浅析[J].河南农业科学,1995(1):11-12.MAO Junxu.The analysis of the conversion between solar radiation and light inensity[J].J Henan Agric Sci,1995(1):11-12.
[30]陈云飞,江洪,周国模,等.人工高效经营雷竹林CO2通量估算及季节变化特征[J].生态学报,2012,33(11):3434-3444.CHEN Yunfei,JIANG Hong,ZHOU Guomo,et al.Estimation of CO2fluxes and its seasonal variations from the effective management lei bamboo(Phyllostachys violascens)[J].Acta Ecol Sin,2012,33(11):3434-3444.
[2]马巾英,尹锴,吝涛.城市复合生态系统碳氧平衡分析[J].环境科学学报,2011,31(8):1808-1816.MA Jinying,YI Kai,LIN Tao.Analysis of the carbon and oxygen balance of acomplex urban ecosystem:a case study in the coastal city of Xiamen[J].Acta Sci Circumst,2011,31(8):1808-1816.
[3]FENG Yueyi,CHEN Shaoqing,ZHANG Lixiao.System dynamics modeling for urban energy consumption and CO2emis-sions:a case study of Beijing,China[J].Ecol Model,2012,252(1):44-52.
[4]周志.基于系统动力学的广东省低碳经济发展路径选择[D].广州:华南理工大学,2011.ZHOU Zhi.The Choosing of Low-carbon Economy Development Path of Guangdong Province Based by System Dynamics Theory[D].Guangzhou:South China University of Technology,2011.
[5]ZHAO Min,KONG Zhenghong,ESCOBEDO F J,et al.Impacts of urban forests on offsetting carbon emissions from industrial energy use in Hangzhou,China[J].J Environ Manage,2010,91(4):807-813.
[6]李霞,孙睿,李远,等.北京海淀公园绿地二氧化碳通量[J].生态学报,2010,30(24):6715-6725.LI Xia,SUN Rui,LI Yuan,et al.Carbon dioxide fluxes on green space in Haidian Park,Beijing[J].Acta Ecol Sin,2010,30(24):6715-6725.
[7]吴飞,吴泽民,吴文友.马鞍山市城市森林碳储量及分布格局研究[J].安徽农业大学学报,2012,39(4):519-526.WU Fei,WU Zemin,WU Wenyou.Appraisal of carbon storage in urban forest patches and its distribution pattern in Maanshan city[J].J Anhui Agric Univ,2012,39(4):519-526.
[8]王其藩.系统动力学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1994.
[9]赵荣钦,黄贤金.城市系统碳循环:特征,机理与理论框架[J].生态学报,2013,33(2):358-366.ZHAO Rongqin,HUANG Xianjin.Carboncycle of urbansystem:characteristics,mechanism and theoretical framework[J].Acta Ecol Sin,2013,33(2):358-366.
[10]李雪玉,姚林如,杨锐琦,等.城市碳循环清单及相关对策研究:以南昌市为例[J].全国商情·理论研究,2012(20):12-14.LI Xueyu,YAO Linru,YANG Ruiqi,et al.Research on urban carbon cycle list and relevant countermeasures[J].Business Inf Theor Res,2012(20):12-14.
[11]何华,龙天渝,鄢涛,等.居住区使用阶段碳收支研究[J].煤气与热力,2010,30(4):40-44.HE Hua,LONG Tianyu,YAN Tao,et al.Research on carbon budget during usestage of residential areas[J].Gas&Heat,2010,30(4):40-43.
[12]蒋运生,柴胜丰,唐辉,等.光照强度对广西地不容光合特性和生长的影响[J].广西植物,2009,29(6):792-796.JIANG Yunsheng,CHAI Shengfeng,TANG Hui,et al.Effect of different light intensities on photosynthetic characteristics and growth of Steohania kwangsiensis[J].Guihaia,2009,29(6):792-796.
[13]张光飞,翟书华,苏文华,等.光照和温度对鸟巢蕨光合速率的影响研究[J].昆明学院学报,2008,30(4):62-63.ZHANG Guangfei,ZHAI Shuhua,SU Wenhua,et al.Effects of light intensity and air temperature on the photosynthesis of Neottopters nidus[J].J Kunming Univ,2008,30(4):62-63.
[14]陈柯,王小德.常春油麻藤、中华常春藤和扶芳藤的光合特性比较分析[J].安徽农业大学学报,2008,35(2):196-199.CHEN Ke,WANG Xiaode.Comparative analysis on photosynthetic characteristics and shade tolerance between Mucuna sempervirens,Hedera nepalensis var.sinensi and Euonymus fortunei[J].J Anhui Agric Univ,2008,35(2):196-199.
[15]王红兵,王励勉,秦俊,等.上海地区九种木兰科植物光合特性的研究[J].北方园艺,2008(8):54.WANG Hongbing,WANG Limian,QIN Jun,et al.Research on photosynthesis characteristic of nine species of Magnoliaceae plants in Shanghai[J].Northern Hortic,2008(8):54.
[16]穆大刚,付翔,许华林.5种红树植物光合产量模型研究[J].安徽农业科学,2008,36(35):1535-1535.MU Dagang,FU Xiang,XU Hualin.Study on phtotsynthetic yield model for five Mangrove species[J].J Anhui Agric Sci,2008,36(35):1535-1535.
[17]陈磊,潘青华,金洪.温湿度对紫叶黄栌光合特性变化的影响[J].中国农学通报,2008,24(6):124-128.CHEN Lei,PAN Qinghua,JIN Hong.Research on influence of relative humidity and air temperature on photosynthetic characteristics of Cotinus coggygria prupureus[J].Chin Agric Sci Bull,2008,24(6):124-128.
[18]郭新想.居住区绿化植物固碳能力评价方法研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2010.GUO Xinxiang.Study on Green Plants CO2-fixing Capacity Evaluation Methods in Residential Area[D].Chongqing:Chongqing University,2010.
[19]陈志银.红麻光合、呼吸强度与气象因子关系的研究[J].中国农业气象,1990,11(4):29-32.CHEN Zhiyin.Research on the relationship between photosynthesis,respiration intensity of Kenaf and meteorological factors[J].Chin J Agrometeorol,1990,11(4):29-32.
[20]王淼,刘亚琴,郝占庆,等.长白山阔叶红松林生态系统的呼吸速率[J].2006,17(10):1789-1795.WANG Miao,LIU Yaqin,HAO Zhanqing,et al.Respiration rate of broad leaved Korean pine fo rest ecosystem in Changbai Mountains[J].Chin J Appl Ecol,2006,17(10):1789-1795.
[21]崔骁勇,陈佐忠,陈四清.草地土壤呼吸研究进展[J].生态学报,2001,21(2):315-325.CUI Xiaoyong,CHEN Zuozhong,CHEN Siqing.Progress in research on soil respiration of grasslands[J].Acta Ecol Sin,2001,21(2):315-325.
[22]杜丽君.红壤几种典型利用方式CO2的排放规律及其影响因素[D].武汉:华中农业大学,2006.DU Lijun.CO2Emission Rule and its Influencing Factors of Red Soil in Different Use Types[D].Wuhan:Huazhong Agricultural University,2006.
[23]刘绍辉,方精云,清田信.北京山地温带森林的土壤呼吸[J].植物生态学报,1998,22(2):119-126.LIU Shaohui,FANG Jingyun,QING Tianxin.Soil respritation of mountainous temperate forests in Beijing,China[J].Acta Phytoecol Sin,1998,22(2):119-126.
[24]张宪权.东北地区落叶松人工林土壤呼吸的时空异质性研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2005.ZHANG Xianquan.Larch Plantation’s Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneity of Soil Respiration in Northeast China[D].Shanghai:East China Normal University,2005.
[25]KUCERA C L,KIRKHAM D R.Soil respiration studies in tallgrass prairie in Missouri[J].Ecology,1971,52(5):912-915.
[26]宋永昌,由文辉,王祥荣.城市生态学[M].上海:华东师范大学出版社,2000.
[27]李志鹏.基于系统动力学的城市交通能源消耗与碳排放预测[D].天津:天津大学,2012.LI Zhipeng.The Forecast of the Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission of Urban Traffic Based on System Dynamics-An Empirical Analysis on Tianjin[D].Tianjin:Tianjin University,2012.
[28]DHAKAL S.Urban energy use and carbon emissions from cities in China and policy implications[J].Energ Polic,2009,37(11):4208-4219.
[29]毛军需.太阳辐射度与光照度换算浅析[J].河南农业科学,1995(1):11-12.MAO Junxu.The analysis of the conversion between solar radiation and light inensity[J].J Henan Agric Sci,1995(1):11-12.
[30]陈云飞,江洪,周国模,等.人工高效经营雷竹林CO2通量估算及季节变化特征[J].生态学报,2012,33(11):3434-3444.CHEN Yunfei,JIANG Hong,ZHOU Guomo,et al.Estimation of CO2fluxes and its seasonal variations from the effective management lei bamboo(Phyllostachys violascens)[J].Acta Ecol Sin,2012,33(11):3434-3444.