东北地区5个物种潜在栖息地变化与优化保护规划
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摘要
气候变化广泛影响着物种多样性及其分布变迁。优化模型模拟结果,获取气候变化影响下的优先保护区域将为制定应对气候变化的物种保护政策或行动提供理论依据,提升保护绩效。选取东北地区五种代表性动物,包括黑熊(Ursus thibetanus)、驼鹿(Alces alces)、水獭(Lutra lutra)、紫貂(Martes zibellina)及黑嘴松鸡(Tetrao parvirostris);结合最大熵模型(Maxent)模拟在不同RCP情景下未来3个年代(2030s,2050s,2070s)的物种潜在栖息地。根据九个常用气候模式的评价结果,获取东北地区合适的气候模式,了解气候变化对物种潜在栖息地的影响,同时开展物种保护规划,识别保护空缺,为应对气候变化、保持生物多样性提供支持。结果显示,在气候变化背景下物种潜在栖息地面积整体呈现下降趋势,但不同气候模式之间存在差异;评价结果推荐CCSM4、Nor ESM1-M、Had GEM2-AO及GFDL-CM3气候模式,推荐在东北地区使用以上气候模式进行物种未来潜在分布的研究。5个物种潜在栖息地平均面积变化率分别为-62.16%,-73.93%,-78.46%(2030s,2050s,2070s)。综合5个重点保护物种的保护优先区,大兴安岭的呼中、汗马与额尔古纳国家级自然保护区,延边地区的天佛指山、老爷岭东北虎、珲春东北虎与汪清原麝国家级自然保护区,长白山国家级自然保护区是气候变化下物种保护的热点区域。
Global climate change has already altered species distribution and diversity. It is significant to study the priority protection area of species to develop dynamic strategies for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. In the current study,we estimated the potential distribution of five species( Asian black bear( Ursus thibetanus),moose( Alces alces),otter( Lutra lutra),sable( Martes zibellina),and black-billed capercaillie( Tetrao parvirostris)) in Northeast China over time using Maxent. We used nine general circulation models( GCMs),and four representative concentration pathways( RCPs) to derive future climate projections over three time periods( 2030,2050,2070),and then modeled species distributions using these predicted environmental measurements for each time period. Zonation was combined with the results from Maxent to identify priority areas,which were further used to optimize the current nature reserve systems.According to the evaluation results of nine GCMs,appropriate climate models in Northeast China were obtained. Based on the GAP analysis for these conservation priority areas,proposals for priority conservation plans were made. The results showed that climate change in the study area would cause a considerable decline in the total distribution areas of the five species. However,different projections by GCMs may cause uncertainty of the predicted distributions. By comparing the species potential distributions,these four GCMs( CCSM4,Nor ESM1-M,Had GEM2-AO,and GFDL-CM3) performed well in Northeast China. The mean percentage of species potential range loss increased,as 62. 16% range loss by 2030;-73.93% by 2050; and-78. 46% by 2070. Conservation priority areas were mainly distributed in a few national nature reserves in the Changbai,Lesser Khingan,Greater Hinggan,and Wanda mountains.
Global climate change has already altered species distribution and diversity. It is significant to study the priority protection area of species to develop dynamic strategies for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. In the current study,we estimated the potential distribution of five species( Asian black bear( Ursus thibetanus),moose( Alces alces),otter( Lutra lutra),sable( Martes zibellina),and black-billed capercaillie( Tetrao parvirostris)) in Northeast China over time using Maxent. We used nine general circulation models( GCMs),and four representative concentration pathways( RCPs) to derive future climate projections over three time periods( 2030,2050,2070),and then modeled species distributions using these predicted environmental measurements for each time period. Zonation was combined with the results from Maxent to identify priority areas,which were further used to optimize the current nature reserve systems.According to the evaluation results of nine GCMs,appropriate climate models in Northeast China were obtained. Based on the GAP analysis for these conservation priority areas,proposals for priority conservation plans were made. The results showed that climate change in the study area would cause a considerable decline in the total distribution areas of the five species. However,different projections by GCMs may cause uncertainty of the predicted distributions. By comparing the species potential distributions,these four GCMs( CCSM4,Nor ESM1-M,Had GEM2-AO,and GFDL-CM3) performed well in Northeast China. The mean percentage of species potential range loss increased,as 62. 16% range loss by 2030;-73.93% by 2050; and-78. 46% by 2070. Conservation priority areas were mainly distributed in a few national nature reserves in the Changbai,Lesser Khingan,Greater Hinggan,and Wanda mountains.
引文
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[20]张微,姜哲,巩虎忠,栾晓峰.气候变化对东北濒危动物驼鹿潜在生境的影响.生态学报,2016,36(7):1815-1823.
[21]Zhang R,Yang L,Laguardia A,Jiang Z,Huang M J,Lv J,Ren Y H,Zhang W,Luan X F.Historical distribution of the otter(Lutra lutra)in north-east China according to historical records(1950-2014).Aquatic Conservation:Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems,2016,26(3):602-606.
[22]Zhang R,Yang L,Ai L,Yang Q Y,Chen M H,Li J X,Yang L,Luan X F.Geographic characteristics of sable(Martes zibellina)distribution over time in Northeast China.Ecology and Evolution,2017,7(11):4016-4023.
[23]Ren Y H,Yang L,Zhang R,Lv J,Huang M J,Luan X F.Decline and range contraction of black-billed capercaillie(Tetrao urogalloides)in northeast China from 1950 to 2010 based on local historical documents.Pakistan Journal of Zoology,2016,48(6):1825-1830.
[24]Yang L,Zhang C,Chen M H,Li J X,Yang L,Huo Z M,Ahmad S,Luan X F.Long-term ecological data for conservation:Range change in the black‐billed capercaillie(Tetrao urogalloides)in northeast China(1970s-2070s).Ecology and Evolution,2018,8(8):3862-3870.
[25]张树清,蔡洪岩,李延明,姜臣学.辽宁省黑熊资源现状及保护.野生动物学报,2008,29(4):214-216.
[26]赵文双,张敏,赵文元,李景梅.辽宁省黑熊资源调查研究.辽宁林业科技,2005,(3):17-19.
[27]朴正吉,朴龙国,王卓聪,罗玉梅,王超,睢亚橙.长白山自然保护区黑熊和棕熊种群数量动态分析.动物学杂志,2012,47(3):66-72.
[28]战如亮,王文,陈洋,冯妍.黑龙江省通河县乌拉浑林场黑熊的生境选择.野生动物学报,2010,31(2):69-73.
[29]Brown J L.SDMtoolbox:a python-based GIS toolkit for landscape genetic,biogeographic and species distribution model analyses.Methods in Ecology and Evolution,2014,5(7):694-700.
[30]Wisz M S,Hijmans R,Li J,Peterson A T,Graham C,Guisan A.Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models.Diversity&Distributions,2008,14(5):763-773.
[31]Manel S,Williams H C,Ormerod S J.Evaluating presence-absence models in ecology:the need to account for prevalence.Journal of applied Ecology,2001,38(5):921-931.
[32]Moilanen A,Pouzols F M,Meller L,Veach V,Arponen A,Leppnen J,Kujala H.Zonation:Spatial Conservation Planning Methods and Software.Version 4 User Manual.Finland:C-BIG Conservation Biology Informatics Group,Department of Biosciences University of Helsinki,2014.
[33]Margules C R,Sarkar S.Systematic Conservation Planning.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007:243-253.
[34]栾晓峰,孙工棋,曲艺,黄维妮,李迪强,刘世荣,吴波.基于C-Plan规划软件的生物多样性就地保护优先区规划---以中国东北地区为例.生态学报,2012,32(3):715-722.
[2]Noss R F,Coorpenter A Y.Saving Nature's Legacy:Protecting and Restoring Biodiversity.Washington:Island Press,1994.
[3]Beaugrand G,Edwards M,Raybaud V,Goberville E,Kirby R R.Future vulnerability of marine biodiversity compared with contemporary and past changes.Nature Climate Change,2015,5(7):695-701.
[4]Willis K J,Gillson L,Knapp S.Biodiversity hotspots through time:an introduction.Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B,2007,362(1478):169-174.
[5]Li J,Liu F,Xue Y D,Zhang Y,Li D Q.Assessing vulnerability of giant pandas to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.Ecology and Evolution,2017,7(11):4003-4015.
[6]Elith J,Leathwick J R.Species distribution models:ecological explanation and prediction across space and time.Annual Review of Ecology,Evolution,and Systematics,2009,40(1):677-697.
[7]Markovic D,Carrizo S,Freyhof J,Cid N,Lengyel S,Scholz M,Kasperdius H,Darwall W.Europe's freshwater biodiversity under climate change:distribution shifts and conservation needs.Diversity and Distributions,2014,20(9):1097-1107.
[8]IPCC.What is a GCM?(2013-08-16).http://www.ipcc-data.org/guidelines/pages/gcm_guide.html.
[9]IPCC.Climate Change 2014:Synthesis Report.Contribution of Working Groups I,II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Geneva:IPCC,2015:151-151.
[10]Margules C R,Pressey R L.Systematic conservation planning.Nature,2000,405(6783):243-253.
[11]Vimal R,Rodrigues A S,Mathevet R,Thompson J D.The sensitivity of gap analysis to conservation targets.Biodiversity and Conservation,2011,20(3):531-543.
[12]郭云,梁晨,李晓文.基于水鸟保护的长江流域湿地优先保护格局模拟.生态学报,2018,38(6):1984-1993.
[13]周桂双.C-Plan软件在自然保护区规划中的应用.哈尔滨师范大学自然科学学报,2017,33(4):124-126.
[14]Moilanen A.Landscape Zonation,benefit functions and target-based planning:unifying reserve selection strategies.Biological Conservation,2007,134(4):571-579.
[15]Lehtomaki J,Moilanen A.Methods and workflow for spatial conservation prioritization using Zonation.Environmental Modelling&Software,2013,47(2):128-137.
[16]Wan J Z,Wang C J,Han S J,Yu J H.Planning the priority protected areas of endangered orchid species in northeastern China.Biodiversity and Conservation,2014,23(6):1395-1409.
[17]肖静,崔莉,李俊清.基于ZONATION的岷山山系多物种保护规划.生态学报,2016,36(2):420-429.
[18]李祯,郑承留,孙文昌.东北地区自然地理.北京:高等教育出版社,1998.
[19]蒋志刚,江建平,王跃招,张鹗,张雁云,李立立,谢锋,蔡波,曹亮,郑光美,董路,张正旺,丁平,罗振华,丁长青,马志军,汤宋华,曹文宣,李春旺,胡慧建,马勇,吴毅,王应祥,周开亚,刘少英,陈跃英,李家堂,冯祚建,王燕,王斌,李成,宋雪琳,蔡蕾,臧春鑫,曾岩,孟智斌,方红霞,平晓鸽.中国脊椎动物红色名录.生物多样性,2016,24(5):500-551.
[20]张微,姜哲,巩虎忠,栾晓峰.气候变化对东北濒危动物驼鹿潜在生境的影响.生态学报,2016,36(7):1815-1823.
[21]Zhang R,Yang L,Laguardia A,Jiang Z,Huang M J,Lv J,Ren Y H,Zhang W,Luan X F.Historical distribution of the otter(Lutra lutra)in north-east China according to historical records(1950-2014).Aquatic Conservation:Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems,2016,26(3):602-606.
[22]Zhang R,Yang L,Ai L,Yang Q Y,Chen M H,Li J X,Yang L,Luan X F.Geographic characteristics of sable(Martes zibellina)distribution over time in Northeast China.Ecology and Evolution,2017,7(11):4016-4023.
[23]Ren Y H,Yang L,Zhang R,Lv J,Huang M J,Luan X F.Decline and range contraction of black-billed capercaillie(Tetrao urogalloides)in northeast China from 1950 to 2010 based on local historical documents.Pakistan Journal of Zoology,2016,48(6):1825-1830.
[24]Yang L,Zhang C,Chen M H,Li J X,Yang L,Huo Z M,Ahmad S,Luan X F.Long-term ecological data for conservation:Range change in the black‐billed capercaillie(Tetrao urogalloides)in northeast China(1970s-2070s).Ecology and Evolution,2018,8(8):3862-3870.
[25]张树清,蔡洪岩,李延明,姜臣学.辽宁省黑熊资源现状及保护.野生动物学报,2008,29(4):214-216.
[26]赵文双,张敏,赵文元,李景梅.辽宁省黑熊资源调查研究.辽宁林业科技,2005,(3):17-19.
[27]朴正吉,朴龙国,王卓聪,罗玉梅,王超,睢亚橙.长白山自然保护区黑熊和棕熊种群数量动态分析.动物学杂志,2012,47(3):66-72.
[28]战如亮,王文,陈洋,冯妍.黑龙江省通河县乌拉浑林场黑熊的生境选择.野生动物学报,2010,31(2):69-73.
[29]Brown J L.SDMtoolbox:a python-based GIS toolkit for landscape genetic,biogeographic and species distribution model analyses.Methods in Ecology and Evolution,2014,5(7):694-700.
[30]Wisz M S,Hijmans R,Li J,Peterson A T,Graham C,Guisan A.Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models.Diversity&Distributions,2008,14(5):763-773.
[31]Manel S,Williams H C,Ormerod S J.Evaluating presence-absence models in ecology:the need to account for prevalence.Journal of applied Ecology,2001,38(5):921-931.
[32]Moilanen A,Pouzols F M,Meller L,Veach V,Arponen A,Leppnen J,Kujala H.Zonation:Spatial Conservation Planning Methods and Software.Version 4 User Manual.Finland:C-BIG Conservation Biology Informatics Group,Department of Biosciences University of Helsinki,2014.
[33]Margules C R,Sarkar S.Systematic Conservation Planning.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007:243-253.
[34]栾晓峰,孙工棋,曲艺,黄维妮,李迪强,刘世荣,吴波.基于C-Plan规划软件的生物多样性就地保护优先区规划---以中国东北地区为例.生态学报,2012,32(3):715-722.