台湾观光相关类股投资人对开放陆客团体行事件之反应
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摘要
利用事件研究法考察2008年5月22日台湾"交通部"拟定之"两岸周末包机及大陆观光客来台方案"对台湾地区航空、观光及贸易百货上市、柜公司股票报酬率的冲击。实证结果表明:事件日前10日、前9日、前4日和前1日平均累积异常报酬率皆通过至少1%水平的显著性检验,表示在事件日前股市投资人对开放陆客团体行之预期已然形成;事件日后1日至后4日及后11日至后14日亦均通过至少5%水平的显著性检验,表示股市投资人对开放陆客团体行有相当强烈的正面响应。
This paper uses event-study approach to investigate the reaction of equity investors in the airline, tourism, and merchandise stock markets to the Project of Cross-Straits Weekend Charter Flight and Mainland Chinese Tourists′ Visit to Taiwan proposed on May 22, 2008 by the Ministry of Transportation. Evidence indicates that: the average cumulative abnormal return rate was statistically significant at least at the 1% level in days -10, -9, -4, and -1, which implies that the project of Mainland Chinese travelers′ group tour had been publicly expected before the event day. The average cumulative abnormal return rate was statistically significant at least at the 5% level in days from +1 to +4 and from +11 to +14, which implies that the Taiwanese equity investors reacted strongly and positively to the Project of Cross-Straits Weekend Charter Flight and Mainland Chinese Tourists′ Visit to Taiwan.
This paper uses event-study approach to investigate the reaction of equity investors in the airline, tourism, and merchandise stock markets to the Project of Cross-Straits Weekend Charter Flight and Mainland Chinese Tourists′ Visit to Taiwan proposed on May 22, 2008 by the Ministry of Transportation. Evidence indicates that: the average cumulative abnormal return rate was statistically significant at least at the 1% level in days -10, -9, -4, and -1, which implies that the project of Mainland Chinese travelers′ group tour had been publicly expected before the event day. The average cumulative abnormal return rate was statistically significant at least at the 5% level in days from +1 to +4 and from +11 to +14, which implies that the Taiwanese equity investors reacted strongly and positively to the Project of Cross-Straits Weekend Charter Flight and Mainland Chinese Tourists′ Visit to Taiwan.
引文
陈美华,许铭珊.2011.大陆安利团来台旅游事件对观光类股股市报酬率之影响[J].运动休闲餐旅研究(1):1-13.
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吴仁诚.2009.休闲产业因应两岸开放三通的经营策略:以剑湖山世界为例[D].台北:虎尾科技大学.
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郑清旗.2007.开放大陆观光客来台对台湾经济影响之评估[D].台北:中山大学.
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CHEN C D,CHEN C C,TANG W W,et al.2009.The positive and negative impacts of the SARS outbreak:a case of the Taiwan industries[J].The Journal of Developing Areas,43(1):281-293.
GANGOPADHYAY P,HALEY J D,ZHANG L.2010.An examination of share price behavior surrounding the2005hurricanes Katrina andRita[J].Journal of Insurance Issues,33(2):132-151.
KAROLYI G A,MARTELL R.2010.Terrorism and the stock market[J].International Review of Applied Financial Issues and Economics,2(2):285-314.
WANG Y,CORBETT R B.2008.Market efficiency:evidence from market reactions of insurance industry stocks to the September11,2001event[J].Journal of Insurance Issues,31(2):152-167.
李明峰.2010.全面开放大陆旅客来台对台湾观光旅馆之冲击[D].台北:暨南大学.
罗国瑞.2011.全面开放陆客来台自由行旅游可行性之研究[D].台北:淡江大学.
吴仁诚.2009.休闲产业因应两岸开放三通的经营策略:以剑湖山世界为例[D].台北:虎尾科技大学.
许汉宽.2012.ECFA协议签署对股票价格的宣告效果:以台湾航运与观光产业为例[D].台北:虎尾科技大学.
郑清旗.2007.开放大陆观光客来台对台湾经济影响之评估[D].台北:中山大学.
BROUNEN D,DERWALL J.2010.The impact of terrorist attacks on international stock markets[J].European Financial Management,16(4):585-598.
CHEN C D,CHEN C C,TANG W W,et al.2009.The positive and negative impacts of the SARS outbreak:a case of the Taiwan industries[J].The Journal of Developing Areas,43(1):281-293.
GANGOPADHYAY P,HALEY J D,ZHANG L.2010.An examination of share price behavior surrounding the2005hurricanes Katrina andRita[J].Journal of Insurance Issues,33(2):132-151.
KAROLYI G A,MARTELL R.2010.Terrorism and the stock market[J].International Review of Applied Financial Issues and Economics,2(2):285-314.
WANG Y,CORBETT R B.2008.Market efficiency:evidence from market reactions of insurance industry stocks to the September11,2001event[J].Journal of Insurance Issues,31(2):152-167.