冬季红枣果园内外温度差异及与气象站气温关系建模分析
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摘要
基于红枣果园冬季实测温度,对比分析果园内、外温度变化差异及其与气象站气温关系,采用线性回归方法根据气象站气温资料建立果园实际温度预测模型。结果表明,冬季红枣果园内、外平均气温差异不显著,但日变化趋势基本一致;最低气温变化存在显著差异(P<0.05),果园内平均最低气温比果园外偏高1.2℃,极端低温偏高1.7℃。冬季气象站平均气温显著高于果园内外气温变化(P<0.01),分别偏高1.2、1.3℃。气象站最低气温的差异变化幅度大于平均气温的差异,日最低气温比果园内、外偏高1.5℃、2.7℃,冬季极端低温偏高1.4℃、2.7℃。果园小气候的形成显著影响极端低温的差异变化,冬季气温比气象站温度偏低,利用气象站气温变化预测果园内外实际气温差异比较可行,关系模型检验绝对误差在0.3~0.8℃之间,可为红枣果园开展冬季冻害监测预警服务提供借鉴参考。
Based on the observation data of temperature in Jujube orchards in winter,the temperature differences between inside and outside orchards were analyzed. The forecast model was established on weather station temperature and actual orchard temperature by Linear Regression Analysis methods. The result showed that there was no significant difference in mean temperature between inside and outside orchard in winter. The changing trend of daily temperature showed accordant in inside and outside orchard. The minimum temperature of inside was different from outside orchard( P < 0. 05). The mean minimum temperature of inside was higher 1. 2℃ than that of outside orchard,and the extreme minimum temperature was higher 1. 7℃ than that of outside orchard. The mean temperature of weather station was significantly higher than that of orchard in winter( P < 0. 01),which was higher 1. 2℃ than inside and 1. 3℃ than outside of orchard. The same as the daily minimum temperature,it was higher 1. 5℃ and 2. 7℃ than inside and outside of orchard,and the extreme minimum temperature was higher 1.4℃ and 2. 7℃ than inside and outside of orchard,respectively. The difference of minimum temperature was affected by the microclimate of orchard,and the temperature of orchard was lower than weather station in winter. It is feasible by using the temperature data of weather station to establish the forecast model of actual temperature in orchard,and the absolute deviation of test was from 0. 3℃ to 0. 8℃,which can provide a reference to carry out the monitoring and early warning service for freezing injury on Jujube orchard in winter.
Based on the observation data of temperature in Jujube orchards in winter,the temperature differences between inside and outside orchards were analyzed. The forecast model was established on weather station temperature and actual orchard temperature by Linear Regression Analysis methods. The result showed that there was no significant difference in mean temperature between inside and outside orchard in winter. The changing trend of daily temperature showed accordant in inside and outside orchard. The minimum temperature of inside was different from outside orchard( P < 0. 05). The mean minimum temperature of inside was higher 1. 2℃ than that of outside orchard,and the extreme minimum temperature was higher 1. 7℃ than that of outside orchard. The mean temperature of weather station was significantly higher than that of orchard in winter( P < 0. 01),which was higher 1. 2℃ than inside and 1. 3℃ than outside of orchard. The same as the daily minimum temperature,it was higher 1. 5℃ and 2. 7℃ than inside and outside of orchard,and the extreme minimum temperature was higher 1.4℃ and 2. 7℃ than inside and outside of orchard,respectively. The difference of minimum temperature was affected by the microclimate of orchard,and the temperature of orchard was lower than weather station in winter. It is feasible by using the temperature data of weather station to establish the forecast model of actual temperature in orchard,and the absolute deviation of test was from 0. 3℃ to 0. 8℃,which can provide a reference to carry out the monitoring and early warning service for freezing injury on Jujube orchard in winter.
引文
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[15]柴芊,栗珂,刘璐.陕西果业基地苹果花期冻害指数及预报方法[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(4):621-626.
[16]李文亮,张丽娟,张冬有.黑龙江省低温冷害风险评估与区划研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(10):149-155.
[17]Jarzabek M,Pukacki P M,Nuc K.Cold-regulated proteins with potent antifreeze and cryoprotective activities in spruce(Picea spp.)[J].Cryobiology,2009,58:268-274.
[18]候琼,王海梅,云文丽.河套灌区玉米低温冷害监测评估指标的研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(2):179-184.
[19]李俊杰,刘志友,吴忠华.塔里木垦区二年生红枣冻害原因分析及预防措施[J].新疆林业,2012(1):28-29.
[20]张山清,普宗朝,李景林,等.气候变化对新疆红枣种植区划的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2014,22(6):713-721.
[2]袁佰顺,许彦平,姚晓红,等.基于春季晚霜冻害的天水苹果气候风险区划[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(2):185-189.
[3]高懋芳,邱建军,刘三超,覃志豪,王立刚.我国低温冷冻害的发生规律分析[J].中国生态农业学报,2008,16(5):1167-1172.
[4]唐子立,杨勇,胡卫国,等.利用光谱反射特征预测柑橘叶片冻害[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(11):146-151.
[5]夏丽花,张立多,林河富,等.福建省冬季果树冻害低温预报预警[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(2):221-225.
[6]Meng Qing-rui,Liang Yin-quan,Wang Wem-feng,et al.Study on super-cooling point and freezing point in floral organs of Apricot[J].Agricultural Science in China,2007,6(11):1330-1335.
[7]曾麟祥.福建百年、五十年一遇两次极端低温对树木冻害的研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2002,10(2):10-14.
[8]郑祚芳,郑艳,李青春.近30年来城市化进程对北京区域气温的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2007,15(4):26-29.
[9]孔东升,金博文,金铭,等.黑河流域中农田防护林小气候效应[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(1):32-36.
[10]于强,李世强,刘永杰,等.库尔勒香梨冻害监测与调查[J].西北园艺,2011(8):45-47.
[11]樊丁宇,闫鹏,韩立群,等.基于果园实测气温的库尔勒香梨越冬冻害成因分析[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(7):100-103.
[12]蔡文华,陈惠,李文,等.2004/2005年冬季连江县低温考察和橄榄树冻害指标初探[J].中国农业气象,2006,27(3):200-203.
[13]代立芹,于长文,康西言,等.河北省冬小麦春季霜冻害发生规律及风险分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(5):134-139.
[14]范辽生,朱兰娟,柴伟国,等.杭州冬季塑料大棚内气温变化特征及日最低气温预报模型[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(3):268-275.
[15]柴芊,栗珂,刘璐.陕西果业基地苹果花期冻害指数及预报方法[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(4):621-626.
[16]李文亮,张丽娟,张冬有.黑龙江省低温冷害风险评估与区划研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(10):149-155.
[17]Jarzabek M,Pukacki P M,Nuc K.Cold-regulated proteins with potent antifreeze and cryoprotective activities in spruce(Picea spp.)[J].Cryobiology,2009,58:268-274.
[18]候琼,王海梅,云文丽.河套灌区玉米低温冷害监测评估指标的研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(2):179-184.
[19]李俊杰,刘志友,吴忠华.塔里木垦区二年生红枣冻害原因分析及预防措施[J].新疆林业,2012(1):28-29.
[20]张山清,普宗朝,李景林,等.气候变化对新疆红枣种植区划的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2014,22(6):713-721.