基于ANP和模糊积分的高速公路网运营风险评估方法
|
摘要
为了全面有效地评估高速公路网运营风险状况,采用基于交通流的风险测度指标和模糊积分的相关理论对其进行研究.基于交通流在高速公路网构件上的动态特性,构建了包括非均匀测度子集、连通性测度子集和抗毁性测度子集在内的路网运营风险测度集合.鉴于运营风险测度之间的相互作用关系,提出了基于网络分析法(ANP)和Choquet积分的路网运营风险评估算法.实证表明:该方法能够较为真实地反映路网实际运营过程中存在的风险,为路网风险管控和全局安全性分析提供决策支持.
In order to evaluate operational risk of expressway networks effectively,an evaluation method based on operational risk measures on account of traffic flow and fuzzy integral was set up.In view of dynamic characteristics of traffic flow on expressway network components,this paper built the operational risk measures of expressway networks including the heterogeneity measures,connectivity measures and survivability measures.Considering the interaction relationship between operational risk measures,the assessment approach based on ANP network and Choquet integration was established.The actual application shows that the assessment approach can represent risks in the actual operating process and provide support for the decision-making of risk management control and global security analysis.
In order to evaluate operational risk of expressway networks effectively,an evaluation method based on operational risk measures on account of traffic flow and fuzzy integral was set up.In view of dynamic characteristics of traffic flow on expressway network components,this paper built the operational risk measures of expressway networks including the heterogeneity measures,connectivity measures and survivability measures.Considering the interaction relationship between operational risk measures,the assessment approach based on ANP network and Choquet integration was established.The actual application shows that the assessment approach can represent risks in the actual operating process and provide support for the decision-making of risk management control and global security analysis.
引文
[1]公安部交通管理局.中华人民共和国道路交通事故统计年报(2015年度)[R].无锡:公安部交通管理科学研究所,2016:44-45.
[2]牛世峰,郑永雄,冯萨丹,等.基于事故树的公路路段交通安全评价方法[J].重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版),2013,32(1):87-90.
[3]李金花,刘莉,张宁,等.基于仿真的城市道路交叉口交通安全评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(12):41-46.
[4]辛督强.基于熵权-TOPSIS的陕西省各市区道路交通安全评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(10):116-120.
[5]黄晓丽,刘耀龙,段锦,等.基于灰色关联及模糊综合评价法的道路交通安全风险评价[J].数学的实践与认识,2017,47(7):208-215.
[6]薛大维,纪峻岭,白竹.基于主成分分析法的高速公路交通安全评价[J].黑龙江工程学院学报,2014,28(2):46-49.
[7]周广振,简晓春,朱明明.基于改进层次分析法的高速公路交通安全评价[J].公路交通技术,2015,34(3):120-123.
[8]NISHIKAWA T,MOTTER A E,LAI Y,et al.Heterogeneity in oscillator networks:Are smaller worlds easier to synchronize?[J].Physical Review Letters,2003,91(1):14101.
[9]DHIR S,Aniruddha N A,MITAL A.Alliance network heterogeneity,absorptive capacity and innovation performance:A framework for mediation and moderation effects[J].International Journal of Strategic Business Alliances,2017,3(2/3):168.
[10]MCKAY S K,SCHRAMSKI J R,CONYNGHAM J N,et al.Assessing upstream fish passage connectivity with network analysis[J].Ecological Applications,2013,23(6):1396-1409.
[11]DASGUPTA S,MAO G,ANDERSON B.A new measure of wireless network connectivity[J].IEEE Transactions on Mobile Computing,2015,14(9):1765-1779.
[12]ZAREI M,RAHMANI A M,SAMIMI H.Connectivity analysis for dynamic movement of vehicular ad hoc networks[J].Wireless Networks,2017,23:1-16.
[13]SHEN YI-LIN,Nguyen N P,XUAN YING,et al.On the discovery of critical links and nodes for assessing network vulnerability[J].IEEE/ACM Transactions on Networking,2013,21(3):963-973.
[14]ALAN T M.An overview of network vulnerability modeling approaches[J].Geo Journal,2013,78(2):209-221.
[15]JENELIUS E,MATTSSON L G.Road network vulnerability analysis:Conceptualization,implementation and application[J].Computers,Environment and Urban Systems,2015,49:136-147.
[16]DWIVEDI A,YU X H.A maximum-flow-based complex network approach for power system vulnerability analysis[J].IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics,2013,9(1):81-88.
[17]WU J J,SUN H J,GAO Z Y.Dynamic urban traffic flow behavior on scale-free networks[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2008,387(2/3):653-660.
[18]TIAN Z,JIA L M,DONG H H,et al.Analysis of urban road traffic network based on complex network[J].Procedia Engineering,2016,137:537-546.
[19]FREIRIA S,RIBEIRO B,TAVARES A O.Understanding road network dynamics:Link-based topological patterns[J].Journal of Transport Geography,2015,46:55-66.
[20]张晨琛,贾利民.高速公路网运营风险分析方法研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(9):135-139.
[21]YAGER R R.On the entropy of fuzzy measures[J].IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems,2000,8(4):453-461.
[2]牛世峰,郑永雄,冯萨丹,等.基于事故树的公路路段交通安全评价方法[J].重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版),2013,32(1):87-90.
[3]李金花,刘莉,张宁,等.基于仿真的城市道路交叉口交通安全评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(12):41-46.
[4]辛督强.基于熵权-TOPSIS的陕西省各市区道路交通安全评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(10):116-120.
[5]黄晓丽,刘耀龙,段锦,等.基于灰色关联及模糊综合评价法的道路交通安全风险评价[J].数学的实践与认识,2017,47(7):208-215.
[6]薛大维,纪峻岭,白竹.基于主成分分析法的高速公路交通安全评价[J].黑龙江工程学院学报,2014,28(2):46-49.
[7]周广振,简晓春,朱明明.基于改进层次分析法的高速公路交通安全评价[J].公路交通技术,2015,34(3):120-123.
[8]NISHIKAWA T,MOTTER A E,LAI Y,et al.Heterogeneity in oscillator networks:Are smaller worlds easier to synchronize?[J].Physical Review Letters,2003,91(1):14101.
[9]DHIR S,Aniruddha N A,MITAL A.Alliance network heterogeneity,absorptive capacity and innovation performance:A framework for mediation and moderation effects[J].International Journal of Strategic Business Alliances,2017,3(2/3):168.
[10]MCKAY S K,SCHRAMSKI J R,CONYNGHAM J N,et al.Assessing upstream fish passage connectivity with network analysis[J].Ecological Applications,2013,23(6):1396-1409.
[11]DASGUPTA S,MAO G,ANDERSON B.A new measure of wireless network connectivity[J].IEEE Transactions on Mobile Computing,2015,14(9):1765-1779.
[12]ZAREI M,RAHMANI A M,SAMIMI H.Connectivity analysis for dynamic movement of vehicular ad hoc networks[J].Wireless Networks,2017,23:1-16.
[13]SHEN YI-LIN,Nguyen N P,XUAN YING,et al.On the discovery of critical links and nodes for assessing network vulnerability[J].IEEE/ACM Transactions on Networking,2013,21(3):963-973.
[14]ALAN T M.An overview of network vulnerability modeling approaches[J].Geo Journal,2013,78(2):209-221.
[15]JENELIUS E,MATTSSON L G.Road network vulnerability analysis:Conceptualization,implementation and application[J].Computers,Environment and Urban Systems,2015,49:136-147.
[16]DWIVEDI A,YU X H.A maximum-flow-based complex network approach for power system vulnerability analysis[J].IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics,2013,9(1):81-88.
[17]WU J J,SUN H J,GAO Z Y.Dynamic urban traffic flow behavior on scale-free networks[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2008,387(2/3):653-660.
[18]TIAN Z,JIA L M,DONG H H,et al.Analysis of urban road traffic network based on complex network[J].Procedia Engineering,2016,137:537-546.
[19]FREIRIA S,RIBEIRO B,TAVARES A O.Understanding road network dynamics:Link-based topological patterns[J].Journal of Transport Geography,2015,46:55-66.
[20]张晨琛,贾利民.高速公路网运营风险分析方法研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(9):135-139.
[21]YAGER R R.On the entropy of fuzzy measures[J].IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems,2000,8(4):453-461.