考虑产品体验性和渠道整合的实物型产品O2O演化仿真研究
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摘要
本文以O2O为背景,研究产品声誉在消费者社会网络传播,继而驱动购买和运营这一问题。为此,利用相依网络描述消费者线上-线下网络,利用线性阈值模型刻画网络中消费者相互影响过程,在此基础上,构建消费者购买行为决策模型和卖家物流运营模型。继而,通过演化仿真对比研究了产品体验性及渠道整合(线上订单由线下门店配送)对O2O市场结果带来的影响。研究发现:(1)体验性弱的产品,O2O管理重点在于构建高效物流功能;而体验性强的产品,应侧重于降低消费者购买门槛;(2)渠道整合并不能显著增加需求总量,但却改变了需求结构,并有助于降低物流总成本;(3)渠道整合应侧重于消费者时效要求强、运输和缺货成本大的产品。
The O2O market,in which the product reputation spreads through consumers' social networks,and then drives sales and operations,is studied in this paper. For this issue,the interdependent network is used to describe the consumers' online-offline networks,in which the interaction among consumers is modeled by the linear threshold model.Furthermore,the consumers' buying decision model and seller's logistics operation model are constructed respectively.Then,by evolutionary simulation,the impacts of product experience and channel integration( online order is satisfied by offline stores) on the results of O2O market are compared and analyzed. Numerical analysis reveals the following conclusions:( 1) O2O should focus on constructing efficient logistics function for the products with lower experience. On the contrary,the buying barrier of customers should be lowed for the products with higher experience.( 2) The integration of two channels cannot help to increase total demand distinctly than before,but alters the structure of demand and reduces total logistics cost obviously.( 3) Channel integration should focus on the products with higher consumers' requirements on time utility,obvious transportation and shortage costs.
The O2O market,in which the product reputation spreads through consumers' social networks,and then drives sales and operations,is studied in this paper. For this issue,the interdependent network is used to describe the consumers' online-offline networks,in which the interaction among consumers is modeled by the linear threshold model.Furthermore,the consumers' buying decision model and seller's logistics operation model are constructed respectively.Then,by evolutionary simulation,the impacts of product experience and channel integration( online order is satisfied by offline stores) on the results of O2O market are compared and analyzed. Numerical analysis reveals the following conclusions:( 1) O2O should focus on constructing efficient logistics function for the products with lower experience. On the contrary,the buying barrier of customers should be lowed for the products with higher experience.( 2) The integration of two channels cannot help to increase total demand distinctly than before,but alters the structure of demand and reduces total logistics cost obviously.( 3) Channel integration should focus on the products with higher consumers' requirements on time utility,obvious transportation and shortage costs.
引文
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[3]王长军,邓欣蕾,蔡昱瑶.竞合视角下的O2O商业模式分类及其运营研究[A].第十九届世界管理论坛暨东方管理论坛论文集[C].北京:管理世界杂志社,2015.135-140.
[4]艾瑞咨询.2016年中国O2O行业发展报告[EB/OL].http://www.iresearch.com.cn/report/2612.html,2016-07-05.
[5]Brynjolfsson E,Hu Y,Rahman M S.Battle of the retail channels:how product selection and geography drive cross-channel competition[J].Management Science,2009,55(11):1755-1765.
[6]Gao F,Su X M.Online and offline information for omnichannel retailing[J].Manufacturing&Service Operations Management,2017,19(1):84-98.
[7]Brynjolfsson E,Simester D.Goodbye pareto principle,hello long tail:the effect of search costs on the concentration of product sales[J].Management Science,2011,57(8):1373-1386.
[8]Oestreicher-Singer G,Sundararajan A.The visible hand?Demand effects of recommendation networks in electronic markets[J].Management Science,2011,57(11):1963-1981.
[9]Lu H,Chen Y.Strategic motive for introducing internet channels in a supply chain[J].Production&Operations Management,2014,23(1):36-47.
[10]Liu Y.Customers’choice between online or offline channel about search products,experience products and credence products[J].International Business Research,2016,9(11):38-56.
[11]Narayanan S,Nandagopal R.From multi-channel to omni-channel:determinants of channel choice[J].Asian Journal of Research in Social Sciences and Humanities,2016,6(9):1016-1035.
[12]Overby E,Jap S.Electronic and physical market channels:a multiyear investigation in a market for products of uncertain quality[J].Management Science,2009,55(6):940-957.
[13]Gallino S,Moreno A.Integration of online and offline channels in retail:the impact of sharing reliable inventory availability information[J].Management Science,2014,60(6):1434-1451.
[14]Zhao F,Wu D,Liang L,et al..Lateral inventory transshipment problem in online-to-offline supply chain[J].International Journal of Production Research,2016,54(7):1951-1963.
[15]Kim Y,Krishnan R.On product-level uncertainty and online purchase behavior:an empirical analysis[J].Management Science,2015,61(10):2449-2467.
[16]He Z,Cheng T C E,Dong J,et al..Evolutionary location and pricing strategies for service merchants in competitive O2O markets[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2016,254(2):595-609.
[17]Kempe D,Kleinberg J.Maximizing the spread of influence through a social network[A].In Getoor L,Senator T,eds.Proceeding of the Ninth ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining[C].ACM Press,Washington,2003.137-146.
[18]Buldyrev S V,Parshani R,Paul G,et al..Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks[J].Nature,2010,464(7291):1025-1028.
[19]Watts D J,Strogatz S H.Collective dynamics of“smallworld”networks[J].Nature,1998,393(6684):440-442.
[20]刘志明,刘鲁.微博网络舆情中的意见领袖识别及分析[J].系统工程,2011,29(6):8-16.
[21]Barabási A,Albert R.Emergence of scaling in random networks[J].Science,1999,286(5439):509-512.
[22]Li F F.Pinning control design for the stabilization of boolean network[J].IEEE Transaction on Neural Networks and Learning Systems,2017,27(7):1585-1590.
[23]陈威如,余卓轩.平台战略[M].北京:中信出版社,2013.87-112.