湘江流域水质特征及水污染经济损失估算
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摘要
基于2008～2016年湘江流域内40个监测站点10项参数的月观测资料,运用水质指数法分析流域水质时空分异特征,并采用主成分分析和多元线性回归分析识别影响流域水环境演变的主要因素.在此基础上将水质、水量与水资源价值结合起来,利用改进的污染损失率法和模糊数学法,构建污染价值损失模型,定量估算流域水污染经济损失.结果表明,湘江流域水质总体以优为主,2008～2011年水质变差,2011年后水质逐渐改善,2015～2016年改善状况较为明显.在季节尺度上,枯水期水质最差,丰水期和平水期接近.流域主要污染物是Hg、Pb、TP、NH_4~+-N和COD_(Mn).经济发展是影响流域水质变化的主要驱动因素.污染价值损失结果表明,长沙和郴州损失量最大,湘潭、株洲和衡阳次之,娄底损失最小.在年际尺度上,2013年污染损失最高(297.04亿元),2008年最低(66.53亿元),总体上2008～2016年污染损失在波动中增加.
Based on monthly observations of 10 parameters at 40 monitoring sites in the basin during 2008～2016, the spatio-temporal variation characteristics were analyzed by employing water quality index method, and the main factors of water environment evolution were also identified using principal component analysis and multivariate linear regression analysis. Further, a pollution value loss model with consideration of water quality, quantity and its resource value was proposed using the improved pollution loss rate method and fuzzy mathematics method to quantitatively estimate the economic loss from water pollution in the basin. The water quality was generally excellent in Xiangjiang River Basin. Within the research period, the water quality deteriorated first from 2008 to 2011, then, gradually improved after 2011, especially in 2015 and 2016. Seasonally, the water quality was the worst in low-flow periods, and similar between moderate-flow periods and high-flow periods. The main pollutants in the basin were Hg、Pb、TP、NH_4~+-N and COD_(Mn). Economic development was one of the main determining factors to the variation of water quality in the basin.The results of pollution value loss analysis indicated that Changsha and Chenzhou had the largest loss, followed by Xiangtan,Zhuzhou and Hengyang, and Loudi had the smallest loss. Annually, the pollution loss was the highest in 2013(29.704 billion yuan)and the lowest in 2008(6.653 billion yuan). In general, the pollution loss showed an increasing trend from 2008 to 2016 with annual fluctuations. Our results could provide scientific support and reference for the research of water pollution prevention and ecological compensation.
Based on monthly observations of 10 parameters at 40 monitoring sites in the basin during 2008～2016, the spatio-temporal variation characteristics were analyzed by employing water quality index method, and the main factors of water environment evolution were also identified using principal component analysis and multivariate linear regression analysis. Further, a pollution value loss model with consideration of water quality, quantity and its resource value was proposed using the improved pollution loss rate method and fuzzy mathematics method to quantitatively estimate the economic loss from water pollution in the basin. The water quality was generally excellent in Xiangjiang River Basin. Within the research period, the water quality deteriorated first from 2008 to 2011, then, gradually improved after 2011, especially in 2015 and 2016. Seasonally, the water quality was the worst in low-flow periods, and similar between moderate-flow periods and high-flow periods. The main pollutants in the basin were Hg、Pb、TP、NH_4~+-N and COD_(Mn). Economic development was one of the main determining factors to the variation of water quality in the basin.The results of pollution value loss analysis indicated that Changsha and Chenzhou had the largest loss, followed by Xiangtan,Zhuzhou and Hengyang, and Loudi had the smallest loss. Annually, the pollution loss was the highest in 2013(29.704 billion yuan)and the lowest in 2008(6.653 billion yuan). In general, the pollution loss showed an increasing trend from 2008 to 2016 with annual fluctuations. Our results could provide scientific support and reference for the research of water pollution prevention and ecological compensation.
引文
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[18]谭喨,刘春学,杨树平,等.滇池水污染经济损失估算[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(12):1449-1452.Tan L,Liu C X,Yang S P,et al.Assessment on the economic loss caused by water pollution of the Dianchi Lake[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2012,21(12):1449-1452.
[2]戴君,刘硕,韩金凤,等.污染负荷多情景变化下河流水质响应关系研究[J].中国环境科学,2018,38(2):776-783.Dai J,Liu S,Han J F,et al.Study on river water quality response relationship under multi scenario change of pollution load[J].China Environmental Science,2018,38(2):776-783.
[3]张伟,刘宇,姜玲,等.基于多区域CGE模型的水污染间接经济损失评估--以长江三角洲流域为例[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(9):2849-2856.Zhang W,Liu Y,Jiang L,et al.Evaluating the economic loss induced by water pollution based on multi-regional CGE Model:a case study of Yangtze River Delta Basin[J].China Environmental Science,2016,36(9):2849-2856.
[4]Horton R K.An index number system for rating water quality[J].Journal Water Pollution Control Federation,1965,37(3):300-306.
[5]Hou W,Sun S,Wang M,et al.Assessing water quality of five typical reservoirs in lower reaches of Yellow River,China:using a water quality index method[J].Ecological Indicators,2016,61(2):309-316.
[6]Wu Z,Zhang D,Cai Y,et al.Water quality assessment based on the water quality index method in Lake Poyang:the largest freshwater lake in China[J].Science Reports,2017,7(1):17999.
[7]Sener S,Sener E,Davraz A.Evaluation of water quality using water quality index(WQI)method and GIS in Aksu River(SW-Turkey)[J].Science of the Total Environment,2017,584-585:131-144.
[8]Selvam S,Manimaran G,Sivasubramanian P,et al.GIS-based evaluation of water quality index of groundwater resources around Tuticorin coastal city,south India[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2014,71(6):2847-2867.
[9]管新建,刘文康.污染价值损失模型在清潩河流域的应用研究[J].水电能源科学,2018,(1):48-52.Guan X J,Liu W K.Application of pollution value loss model in Qingyi River Basin[J].Water Resources and Power,2018,(1):48-52.
[10]秦长海.水资源定价理论与方法研究[D].北京:中国水利水电科学研究院,2013.Qin C H.Water resource pricing and its practice[D].Beijing:China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,2013.
[11]唐敬知,杨仁斌,谈健.湘江流域水质环境演变特征研究[J].环境科学与管理,2014,39(5):62-66.Tang J Z,Yang R B,Tan J.Study on water environment evolution characters of Xiangjiang River[J].Environmental Science and Management,2014,39(5):62-66.
[12]王旭,朱维耀,肖伟华,等.湘江流域水环境问题及其综合应对策略[J].环境保护科学,2012,38(5):5-9.Wang X,Zhu W Y,Xiao W H,et al.Water environment problems of Xiangjiang River Basin and comprehensive corresponding strategies[J].Environmental Protection Science,2012,38(5):5-9.
[13]Sutadian A D,Muttil N,Yilmaz A G,et al.Development of a water quality index for rivers in West Java Province,Indonesia[J].Ecological Indicators,2018,85:966-982.
[14]GB3838-2002地表水环境质量标准[S].GB3838-2002 Environmental quality standards for surface water[S].
[15]郭锐利,郑钦玉,刘娟,等.基于熵值法和GM(1,1)模型的重庆城市生态系统健康评价[J].中国环境科学,2012,32(6):1148-1152.Guo R L,Zheng Q Y,Liu J,et al.Ecosystem health assessment of Chongqing City based on entropy and GM(1,1)model[J].China Environmental Science,2012,32(6):1148-1152.
[16]詹姆斯L D,李R R.水资源规划经济学[M].北京:水利电力出版,1984,255-257.James L D,Lee R R.Economics of water resources planning[M].Beijing:Water Resources and Electric Power Press,1984:255-257.
[17]简富缋,宋晓谕,虞文宝.水资源资产价格模糊数学综合评价指标体系构建--以黑河中游张掖市为例[J].冰川冻土,2016,38(2):567-572.Jian F H,Song X Y,Yu W B.Construction of the evaluation system of water asset price with fuzzy comprehensive assessment indexes:taking Zhangye Prefecture in Heihe River basin as an example[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2016,38(2):567-572.
[18]谭喨,刘春学,杨树平,等.滇池水污染经济损失估算[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(12):1449-1452.Tan L,Liu C X,Yang S P,et al.Assessment on the economic loss caused by water pollution of the Dianchi Lake[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2012,21(12):1449-1452.