当前缅北冲突与中缅边界管控研究
|
摘要
大国地缘政治博弈的重心逐渐转移到亚太地区,缅甸因其特殊的地缘区位而成为大国地缘政治战略的交汇区。中国的"一带一路"倡议与中缅"人字形"经济走廊等在缅甸不断推进,同时域外大国势力介入缅北地区,缅甸国内局势更加复杂,致使缅北冲突不断激化升级。2015年2月之前,缅甸政府军主动进攻缅北各民族武装组织,现阶段,缅北冲突发生了重大逆转,"缅北联军"开始主动突袭政府军。通过实地调研法、文献分析法等方法分析缅北冲突原因以及中国扮演的角色,进一步提出缅北冲突对中缅双边关系、跨境贸易、边境安全以及边界管控带来新的挑战,并发现缅北冲突暂时不会对中缅边境地区带来较大的安全影响,但随着冲突的加剧,毒品、走私、跨境犯罪、恐怖袭击等问题将是影响中缅边境安全的潜在影响因素。最后提出具有针对性的边界管控措施,为国家和边境地方政府做好边界管控提供借鉴。
The focus of the geopolitical game of big countries has gradually shifted to the Asia-Pacific region. Myanmar has become the intersection of the geopolitical strategies of big countries because of its special geographical location. Chinese "Belt and Road Initiative" and the China-Myanmar "herringbone" economic corridor continue to advance in Myanmar, while the extraterritorial powers intervene in the situation in northern Myanmar. The domestic situation in Myanmar is more complicated and difficult to control, which in turn has intensified the escalation of the conflict in north Myanmar. The Myanmar government army that took the initiative to attack the various armed groups in northern Myanmar before February 2015 have turned into the current "Alliance of local ethnic armed groups in northern Myanmar " to take the initiative to raid the government. The article aims to analyze the conflicts between North Myanmar and China and the reasons for Chinese neutrality through field research methods, questionnaire interviews, literature analysis methods,etc, and further proposes that the North-Myanmar conflict will bring bilateral relations, cross-border trade, border security and border control. The new challenge finally proposes targeted border control measures to provide reference for border management in the national and border local governments. The article concludes that the conflict in northern Myanmar will not have a greater security impact on the border between China and Myanmar. As the conflict intensifies, issues such as drugs, smuggling, cross-border crimes, and terrorist attacks will be potential factors affecting the security of the China-Myanmar border. How to do well in border control, prevent major security incidents in border areas, and safeguard the security and territorial integrity of China's southwestern border are the research focus of the article.
The focus of the geopolitical game of big countries has gradually shifted to the Asia-Pacific region. Myanmar has become the intersection of the geopolitical strategies of big countries because of its special geographical location. Chinese "Belt and Road Initiative" and the China-Myanmar "herringbone" economic corridor continue to advance in Myanmar, while the extraterritorial powers intervene in the situation in northern Myanmar. The domestic situation in Myanmar is more complicated and difficult to control, which in turn has intensified the escalation of the conflict in north Myanmar. The Myanmar government army that took the initiative to attack the various armed groups in northern Myanmar before February 2015 have turned into the current "Alliance of local ethnic armed groups in northern Myanmar " to take the initiative to raid the government. The article aims to analyze the conflicts between North Myanmar and China and the reasons for Chinese neutrality through field research methods, questionnaire interviews, literature analysis methods,etc, and further proposes that the North-Myanmar conflict will bring bilateral relations, cross-border trade, border security and border control. The new challenge finally proposes targeted border control measures to provide reference for border management in the national and border local governments. The article concludes that the conflict in northern Myanmar will not have a greater security impact on the border between China and Myanmar. As the conflict intensifies, issues such as drugs, smuggling, cross-border crimes, and terrorist attacks will be potential factors affecting the security of the China-Myanmar border. How to do well in border control, prevent major security incidents in border areas, and safeguard the security and territorial integrity of China's southwestern border are the research focus of the article.
引文
[1]戴永红,刘金卫.缅甸民地武新联盟的形成、发展与未来走向.国际论坛,2016,18(04):64-71+81.
[2]宫玉涛.近年来缅甸国内的民族冲突对我国西南边疆地区的影响.西南民族大学学报(人文社科版),2016,37(02):37-43.
[3]张晓伟,胡志丁,何有麟,何琴.缅北冲突对“一带一路”在缅推进的影响机理.世界地理研究,2018,27(02):26-35.
[4]胡志丁,骆华松.基于博弈论的边界效应调控研究.世界地理研究,2009,18(03):154-160+102.
[5]杜兰.“一带一路”建设背景下中国与缅甸的经贸合作.东南亚纵横,2017(01):29-35.
[6]熊理然,骆华松,付磊,等.缅北果敢冲突的时空演进及其对中国边境安全的直接影响———基于事件数据及实地调查的解读.热带地理,2015,35(04):577-584.
[7] R.H.Taylor.“British Policy towards Myanmar and the Creation of the‘Burma Problem”in N. Ganesan and Kyaw Yin Hlaing eds.Myanmar:State,Society and Ethnicity.Singapore:Institute of Southeast Asian Studies,2007,p.75.
[8]祝湘辉.英国殖民初期缅甸山区行政制度研究.东南亚南亚研究,2010(02):76-80+94.
[9]贺圣达.缅甸史.北京:人民出版社,1992:449-450.
[10] Lian H. Sakhong,“The Dynamics of Sixty Years of Ethnic Armed Conflict in Burma”, Analysis Paper,2012(1):2.
[11] Mary P. Callahan,Making Enemies:War and State Building in Burma,Singapore University Press,2004:21.
[12]李晨阳.缅甸国情报告(2011~2012).北京:社会科学文献出版社,2013:85-87.
[13]苏晓晖.缅甸“民地武”问题对中缅关系的影响.当代世界,2013(04):49-51.
[14]祝湘辉.缅甸国情报告(2016).北京:社会科学文献出版社,2017:44-47.
[15]王晓军.孟中印缅经济走廊倡议中的缅甸因素研究.上海:华东师范大学,2017.
[16]李晨阳,宋少军.缅甸对“一带一路”的认知和反应.南洋问题研究,2016(04):20-30.
[17]王晓梅.从中缅油气管道看中国能源安全战略选择.国际经济合作,2013(10):38-43.
[18]赵洪.中国—缅甸经济走廊及其影响.东南亚南亚研究,2012(04):35-39+91.
[19]杨在月,胡志丁,惠凯,等.论地缘战略区位的主体间性——以缅甸为例.世界地理研究,2017,26(02):1-10.
[20]李灿松,骆华松,胡志丁,等. 2015年缅北局势的未来走向及中国应对策略.热带地理,2015,35(04):569-576+600.
[21]胡志丁,刘卫东.论地缘战略的主体间性———兼论中国地缘战略抉择.人文地理,2016,31(03):122-127.
[22]胡志丁,陆大道,杜德斌,等.未来十年中国地缘政治学重点研究方向.地理研究,2017,36(02):205-214.
[23]刘务.1988年以来缅甸民族国家构建.北京:社会科学文献出版社,2014:141-142.
[24]余江,王朝佐.对中缅边境管理中与缅甸地方民族武装势力开展警务合作的思考.云南公安高等专科学校学报,2001(01):67-71.
[25]王逸舟.创造性介入———中国外交新取向.北京:北京大学出版社,2011:21-22.
[26]鲁刚.当前云南边疆问题综合治理研究———以维护社会稳定为中心.云南师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018,50(01):14-21.
[27]胡志丁.次区域合作与边境安全及边界效应调控研究.北京:人民出版社,2014:90-92.
[28]何跃.中国西南边疆境外流动人口的区域管理研究———以云南为例.贵州社会科学,2008(12):38-43.
[29]刘玉立,胡志丁,葛岳静.云南边境口岸外籍务工人员空间分布差异及其成因.热带地理,2017,37(02):174-184.
[30] China Forces Myanmar's Ethnic Refugees to Go Home. New York Times,23 Aug,2012.
[31]李芳芳.中缅边境缅甸难民治理问题研究.昆明:云南财经大学,2016.
[32] Unrest in Kachin:China’s mixed blessing,Asia Sentinel. 2013-03-06,http://www.asiasentinel.com/politics/unrest-in-kachin-chinas-mixed-blessing.
[33]杜兰.“一带一路”建设背景下中国与缅甸的经贸合作.东南亚纵横,2017(01):29-35.
[34]中国禁毒网. 2016年中国毒品形势报告. http://www.Nncc 626.com/2017-03/27/c_129519255_3.htm
[35]苏晓波,蔡晓梅.领域陷阱与中国在缅甸北部的跨国禁毒实践.地理科学进展,2017,36(12):1552-1561.
[36]胡志丁,葛岳静,骆华松.地缘战略制定原则与中国地缘战略.世界地理研究,2018,27(05):1-11.
[37] Ruben Zaiotti, Cultures of Border Control Schengen and the Evolution of European Frontiers,Chicago and London:the University of Chicago Press,2011:65.
[38] S·Whittemore Boggs,International Boundaries:A Study of Boundary Functions and Problems,New York:Columbia University Press,1940:11.
[39] CBP.Vision and Strategy 2020. https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/documents/CBP-Vision-Strategy-2020. pdf,2015-04-08/2017-11-11.
[40]王亚宁.欧盟边界安全管控的特点.边界与海洋研究,2016,1(03):58-67.
[41]王振刚.新世纪以来当代云南边疆问题研究述评.中国边疆史地研究,2016,26(02):167-178+182.
[42]郭家骥.云南周边跨境民族文化交流互动与边疆繁荣稳定.云南社会科学, 2015(06):117-122.
(1)数据来源:中华人民共和国商务部亚洲司亚洲经贸合作官网http://yzs.mofcom.gov.cn/article/r/。
(2)数据来源:中国口岸年鉴整理所得(中国海关出版社)。
[2]宫玉涛.近年来缅甸国内的民族冲突对我国西南边疆地区的影响.西南民族大学学报(人文社科版),2016,37(02):37-43.
[3]张晓伟,胡志丁,何有麟,何琴.缅北冲突对“一带一路”在缅推进的影响机理.世界地理研究,2018,27(02):26-35.
[4]胡志丁,骆华松.基于博弈论的边界效应调控研究.世界地理研究,2009,18(03):154-160+102.
[5]杜兰.“一带一路”建设背景下中国与缅甸的经贸合作.东南亚纵横,2017(01):29-35.
[6]熊理然,骆华松,付磊,等.缅北果敢冲突的时空演进及其对中国边境安全的直接影响———基于事件数据及实地调查的解读.热带地理,2015,35(04):577-584.
[7] R.H.Taylor.“British Policy towards Myanmar and the Creation of the‘Burma Problem”in N. Ganesan and Kyaw Yin Hlaing eds.Myanmar:State,Society and Ethnicity.Singapore:Institute of Southeast Asian Studies,2007,p.75.
[8]祝湘辉.英国殖民初期缅甸山区行政制度研究.东南亚南亚研究,2010(02):76-80+94.
[9]贺圣达.缅甸史.北京:人民出版社,1992:449-450.
[10] Lian H. Sakhong,“The Dynamics of Sixty Years of Ethnic Armed Conflict in Burma”, Analysis Paper,2012(1):2.
[11] Mary P. Callahan,Making Enemies:War and State Building in Burma,Singapore University Press,2004:21.
[12]李晨阳.缅甸国情报告(2011~2012).北京:社会科学文献出版社,2013:85-87.
[13]苏晓晖.缅甸“民地武”问题对中缅关系的影响.当代世界,2013(04):49-51.
[14]祝湘辉.缅甸国情报告(2016).北京:社会科学文献出版社,2017:44-47.
[15]王晓军.孟中印缅经济走廊倡议中的缅甸因素研究.上海:华东师范大学,2017.
[16]李晨阳,宋少军.缅甸对“一带一路”的认知和反应.南洋问题研究,2016(04):20-30.
[17]王晓梅.从中缅油气管道看中国能源安全战略选择.国际经济合作,2013(10):38-43.
[18]赵洪.中国—缅甸经济走廊及其影响.东南亚南亚研究,2012(04):35-39+91.
[19]杨在月,胡志丁,惠凯,等.论地缘战略区位的主体间性——以缅甸为例.世界地理研究,2017,26(02):1-10.
[20]李灿松,骆华松,胡志丁,等. 2015年缅北局势的未来走向及中国应对策略.热带地理,2015,35(04):569-576+600.
[21]胡志丁,刘卫东.论地缘战略的主体间性———兼论中国地缘战略抉择.人文地理,2016,31(03):122-127.
[22]胡志丁,陆大道,杜德斌,等.未来十年中国地缘政治学重点研究方向.地理研究,2017,36(02):205-214.
[23]刘务.1988年以来缅甸民族国家构建.北京:社会科学文献出版社,2014:141-142.
[24]余江,王朝佐.对中缅边境管理中与缅甸地方民族武装势力开展警务合作的思考.云南公安高等专科学校学报,2001(01):67-71.
[25]王逸舟.创造性介入———中国外交新取向.北京:北京大学出版社,2011:21-22.
[26]鲁刚.当前云南边疆问题综合治理研究———以维护社会稳定为中心.云南师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018,50(01):14-21.
[27]胡志丁.次区域合作与边境安全及边界效应调控研究.北京:人民出版社,2014:90-92.
[28]何跃.中国西南边疆境外流动人口的区域管理研究———以云南为例.贵州社会科学,2008(12):38-43.
[29]刘玉立,胡志丁,葛岳静.云南边境口岸外籍务工人员空间分布差异及其成因.热带地理,2017,37(02):174-184.
[30] China Forces Myanmar's Ethnic Refugees to Go Home. New York Times,23 Aug,2012.
[31]李芳芳.中缅边境缅甸难民治理问题研究.昆明:云南财经大学,2016.
[32] Unrest in Kachin:China’s mixed blessing,Asia Sentinel. 2013-03-06,http://www.asiasentinel.com/politics/unrest-in-kachin-chinas-mixed-blessing.
[33]杜兰.“一带一路”建设背景下中国与缅甸的经贸合作.东南亚纵横,2017(01):29-35.
[34]中国禁毒网. 2016年中国毒品形势报告. http://www.Nncc 626.com/2017-03/27/c_129519255_3.htm
[35]苏晓波,蔡晓梅.领域陷阱与中国在缅甸北部的跨国禁毒实践.地理科学进展,2017,36(12):1552-1561.
[36]胡志丁,葛岳静,骆华松.地缘战略制定原则与中国地缘战略.世界地理研究,2018,27(05):1-11.
[37] Ruben Zaiotti, Cultures of Border Control Schengen and the Evolution of European Frontiers,Chicago and London:the University of Chicago Press,2011:65.
[38] S·Whittemore Boggs,International Boundaries:A Study of Boundary Functions and Problems,New York:Columbia University Press,1940:11.
[39] CBP.Vision and Strategy 2020. https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/documents/CBP-Vision-Strategy-2020. pdf,2015-04-08/2017-11-11.
[40]王亚宁.欧盟边界安全管控的特点.边界与海洋研究,2016,1(03):58-67.
[41]王振刚.新世纪以来当代云南边疆问题研究述评.中国边疆史地研究,2016,26(02):167-178+182.
[42]郭家骥.云南周边跨境民族文化交流互动与边疆繁荣稳定.云南社会科学, 2015(06):117-122.
(1)数据来源:中华人民共和国商务部亚洲司亚洲经贸合作官网http://yzs.mofcom.gov.cn/article/r/。
(2)数据来源:中国口岸年鉴整理所得(中国海关出版社)。