广西北部湾经济区对物流业发展的政策效应研究——基于双重差分法的实证检验
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摘要
广西北部湾经济区是国家重要战略规划之一,但其效应如何,需要进行验证。本文基于2000-2015年间广西14个地级市的面板数据,运用双重差分法研究北部湾经济区对物流业的影响。实证结果表明:北部湾经济区的设立显著促进了地区物流业的发展,这一结论在进行一系列稳健性检验之后依然成立。研究还发现工业发展水平、地区经济总量和社会消费能力对地区物流业的发展也具有一定影响。从深入推进北部湾经济升级战略、优化工业空间布局及扩大内需等方面提出促进物流业发展的建议。
The Beibu Gulf Economic and Economic Zone is an important strategy for the development of plan-ning in Guangxi. However, its effectiveness is in need of verification. Based on the panel data of 14 prefec-ture-level cities in Guangxi during the period of 2000-2015, this paper uses the double difference method to study the impact of the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone on the logistics industry. The empirical results show that the establishment of the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone has significantly promoted the development of the regional logistics industry. This conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests. It was also concluded that the total industrial output value, regional GDP, and total retail sales of social consumer goods also have a certain impact on the development of the regional logistics industry. The proposals for promoting the development of the logistics industry are proposed from the aspects of deepening the economic upgrading strategy of the Beibu Gulf, optimizing the layout of industrial space, and expanding domestic demand.
The Beibu Gulf Economic and Economic Zone is an important strategy for the development of plan-ning in Guangxi. However, its effectiveness is in need of verification. Based on the panel data of 14 prefec-ture-level cities in Guangxi during the period of 2000-2015, this paper uses the double difference method to study the impact of the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone on the logistics industry. The empirical results show that the establishment of the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone has significantly promoted the development of the regional logistics industry. This conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests. It was also concluded that the total industrial output value, regional GDP, and total retail sales of social consumer goods also have a certain impact on the development of the regional logistics industry. The proposals for promoting the development of the logistics industry are proposed from the aspects of deepening the economic upgrading strategy of the Beibu Gulf, optimizing the layout of industrial space, and expanding domestic demand.
引文
[1]广西壮族自治区人民政府.广西北部湾经济区发展规划[EB/OL].http://www.gxzf.gov.cn/zwgk/zfwj/zzqrmzfbgtwj/2008ngzbwj/200812/t20081205_435965.html.
[2]陈彩红.广西物流需求分析[D].南宁:广西大学,2008.
[3]王广立.谈“营改增”对广西物流业的影响[J].商业经济研究,2016(23):88-89.
[4]乐小兵.基于协整和灰色关联分析的广西物流发展影响因素研究[J].物流技术,2012(12):348-350.
[5]黄庶冰.“一带一路”战略背景下广西物流业发展的机遇与挑战分析[J].企业技术开发,2015(7):117-119.
[6]富原,付丽琴.发展广西物流业的政府角色浅析[J].物流平台,2015(2):50-53.
[7]潘尚贤.中国-东盟自由贸易区发展条件下广西物流业发展现状分析与定位思考[J].物流平台,2011(2):26-27.
[8]乔榛,李楠.国有企业改制政策效果的实证分析-基于双重差分模型的估计[J].数量经济技术经济研究,20102):3-21.
[9]郑新业,王晗卓.“省直管县”能促进经济增长吗?-双重差分方法[J].管理世界,2011(8):34-65.
[10]刘瑞明,赵仁杰.国家高新区推动了地区经济发展吗?-基于双重差分方法的验证[J].管理世界,2015(8):30-38.
[11]Baker,M. J.,Gruber et al.Universal Child Care,Maternal Labor Supply and Family Well-Being[J].Journal of Political Economy,2008,116(4):709-745.
[12]邱国斌,秦鑫.基于灰色关联分析模型的武汉市物流产业发展影响因素研究[J].科技和产业,2017,17(12):19-24.
[13]谢守红,王平.中国主要城市物流业发展的差异及影响因素[J].浙江师范大学学报(社会科学版),2016,41(1):69-78
[14]任丹丹.广东省物流业发展与制造业升级的关系研究[J].特区经济,2017(10):118-122.
[15]刘瑞明,赵仁杰.西部大开发:增长驱动还是政策陷阱-基于PSM-DID方法的研究[J].中国工业经济,2015(6):32-43.
[16]Heckman,J.J.,H. Ichimura and P. E. Todd. Matching as an Econometric EvaluationEstimator:Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Program[J].Review of Economic Studies,1997,64(4):605-654.
[2]陈彩红.广西物流需求分析[D].南宁:广西大学,2008.
[3]王广立.谈“营改增”对广西物流业的影响[J].商业经济研究,2016(23):88-89.
[4]乐小兵.基于协整和灰色关联分析的广西物流发展影响因素研究[J].物流技术,2012(12):348-350.
[5]黄庶冰.“一带一路”战略背景下广西物流业发展的机遇与挑战分析[J].企业技术开发,2015(7):117-119.
[6]富原,付丽琴.发展广西物流业的政府角色浅析[J].物流平台,2015(2):50-53.
[7]潘尚贤.中国-东盟自由贸易区发展条件下广西物流业发展现状分析与定位思考[J].物流平台,2011(2):26-27.
[8]乔榛,李楠.国有企业改制政策效果的实证分析-基于双重差分模型的估计[J].数量经济技术经济研究,20102):3-21.
[9]郑新业,王晗卓.“省直管县”能促进经济增长吗?-双重差分方法[J].管理世界,2011(8):34-65.
[10]刘瑞明,赵仁杰.国家高新区推动了地区经济发展吗?-基于双重差分方法的验证[J].管理世界,2015(8):30-38.
[11]Baker,M. J.,Gruber et al.Universal Child Care,Maternal Labor Supply and Family Well-Being[J].Journal of Political Economy,2008,116(4):709-745.
[12]邱国斌,秦鑫.基于灰色关联分析模型的武汉市物流产业发展影响因素研究[J].科技和产业,2017,17(12):19-24.
[13]谢守红,王平.中国主要城市物流业发展的差异及影响因素[J].浙江师范大学学报(社会科学版),2016,41(1):69-78
[14]任丹丹.广东省物流业发展与制造业升级的关系研究[J].特区经济,2017(10):118-122.
[15]刘瑞明,赵仁杰.西部大开发:增长驱动还是政策陷阱-基于PSM-DID方法的研究[J].中国工业经济,2015(6):32-43.
[16]Heckman,J.J.,H. Ichimura and P. E. Todd. Matching as an Econometric EvaluationEstimator:Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Program[J].Review of Economic Studies,1997,64(4):605-654.