中国粮食产能变化与耕地保护策略研究——基于作物区试产量视角
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摘要
[目的]通过分析粮食作物新品种的区试产量变化和耕地面积变化,研究保证国家粮食安全的策略。[方法]文章以105个农业生态小区为研究单元,以粮食作物审定品种的区域试验产量为基础,量化对比分析2004年和2016年各农业生态小区的粮食单产,核算2004年和2016年全国耕地粮食总生产能力。[结果](1)相比2004年,2016年全国粮食作物单产能力平均提高4. 96%。(2) 2004年和2016年全国平均耕地粮食单产能力实现率分别为49. 18%和52. 31%。(3) 2004年和2016年的全国耕地粮食总生产能力为10. 70亿t和9. 59亿t,呈下降趋势。(4) 2004—2016年,耕地面积变化对粮食生产能力的影响大于粮食单产能力变化。[结论]依靠农业科技进步提高了粮食单产,但粮食单产提升不足以弥补耕地面积减少对粮食总产的影响。因此,为了保障国家粮食安全,不能单纯依靠单产提升,必须同步推进藏粮于技和藏粮于地战略。
The purpose of this study is to analyze the changes of regional yields and changes in cultivated land area of new varieties of food crops,and to research on the strategies for ensuring national food security. This study took105 agricultural ecological communities as the research unit. Based on the regional test yields of approved varieties of food crops,it quantified and analyzed the grain yield per unit of various agricultural ecological communities in2004 and 2016,and calculated the total grain production of cultivated land in 2004 and 2016. The results showed that(1) Compared with 2004,the average national food crop yield per unit of grain crops increased by 4. 96% in2016.(2) The average grain yield per unit of production in 2004 and 2016 was 49. 18% and 52. 31%,respectively.(3) In 2004,the total grain production capacity in China was 1.07 billion tons and 959 million tons,showing a declining trend.(4) From 2004 to 2016,the change in cultivated land area had a greater impact on grain production capacity than the change in grain yield capacity. It is concluded that relying on the advancement of agricultural science and technology,the yield per unit of grain has been increased,but the increase in yield per unit is not sufficient to make up for the impact of the decrease in the amount of cultivated land on the total grain yield. Therefore,in order to ensure national food security,it is not possible to simply rely on the increase in yields,and it is imperative to promote the strategy of collecting grain for technology and collecting grain in the cultivated land.
The purpose of this study is to analyze the changes of regional yields and changes in cultivated land area of new varieties of food crops,and to research on the strategies for ensuring national food security. This study took105 agricultural ecological communities as the research unit. Based on the regional test yields of approved varieties of food crops,it quantified and analyzed the grain yield per unit of various agricultural ecological communities in2004 and 2016,and calculated the total grain production of cultivated land in 2004 and 2016. The results showed that(1) Compared with 2004,the average national food crop yield per unit of grain crops increased by 4. 96% in2016.(2) The average grain yield per unit of production in 2004 and 2016 was 49. 18% and 52. 31%,respectively.(3) In 2004,the total grain production capacity in China was 1.07 billion tons and 959 million tons,showing a declining trend.(4) From 2004 to 2016,the change in cultivated land area had a greater impact on grain production capacity than the change in grain yield capacity. It is concluded that relying on the advancement of agricultural science and technology,the yield per unit of grain has been increased,but the increase in yield per unit is not sufficient to make up for the impact of the decrease in the amount of cultivated land on the total grain yield. Therefore,in order to ensure national food security,it is not possible to simply rely on the increase in yields,and it is imperative to promote the strategy of collecting grain for technology and collecting grain in the cultivated land.
引文
[1]唐华俊,李哲敏.基于中国居民平衡膳食模式的人均粮食需求量研究.中国农业科学,2012,45(11):2315-2327.
[2]傅泽强,蔡运龙,杨友孝,等.中国粮食安全与耕地资源变化的相关分析.自然资源学报,2001,16(4):313-319.
[3]张元红,刘长全,国鲁来.中国粮食安全状况评价与战略思考.中国农村观察,2015(1):2-14.
[4]陈璐,胡月,韩学平,等.国家粮食安全中主产区粮食生产及其贡献的量化对比分析.中国土地科学,2017,31(9):34-42.
[5]樊闽,程锋.中国粮食生产能力发展状况分析.中国土地科学,2006,20(4):46-51.
[6]谢小蓉.我国粮食安全的多维观察.企业经济,2013(2):133-136.
[7]聂英.中国粮食安全的耕地贡献分析.经济学家,2015,1(1):83-93.
[8]胡恒洋.提升三大能力保障国家粮食安全.中国粮食经济,2017(2):26-29.
[9]谢高地,成升魁,肖玉,等.新时期中国粮食供需平衡态势及粮食安全观的重构.自然资源学报,2017,32(6):895-903.
[10]胡琼,吴文斌,项铭涛,等.全球耕地利用格局时空变化分析.中国农业科学,2018,51(6):1091-1105.
[11]张凤荣,薛永森,鞠正山,等.中国耕地的数量与质量变化分析.资源科学,1998,20(5):35-42.
[12]陈百明,周小萍.中国近期耕地资源与粮食综合生产能力的变化态势.资源科学,2004,26(5):38-45.
[13]陈印军,易小燕,方琳娜,等.中国耕地资源与粮食增产潜力分析.中国农业科学,2016,49(6):1117-1131.
[14]张晋科.中国耕地的粮食生产能力研究.北京:中国农业大学,2007.
[15]李相玺,尹忠东,何长高.土地生产潜力研究综述.水土保持学报,2001,15(5):33-36.
[16]李团胜,张艳,闫颖,等.基于农用地分等成果的陕西周至县耕地粮食生产能力测算.农业工程学报,2012,28(15):193-198.
[17]林毅夫,等.中国农业科研优先序我国主要粮食作物育种科研的需求和供给分析.北京:中国农业出版社,1996.
[18]中国耕作制度区划.北京:北京农业大学出版社,1987.
[19]曹志宏.基于谷物当量的中国居民食物消费变化及其对农业生产需求分析.资源科学,2013,35(11):2181-2187.
[20]向晶,钟甫宁.人口结构变动对未来粮食需求的影响:2010-2050.中国人口.资源与环境,2013,23(6):117-121.
[21]Guo J. H.,Liu X. J.,Zhang Y.,et al. Significant Acidification in Major Chinese Croplands. 2010,327(5968):1008-1010.
[22]曾勇军,周庆红,吕伟生,等.土壤酸化对双季早、晚稻产量的影响.作物学报,2014,40(5):899-907.
[23]李继红.我国土壤酸化的成因与防控研究.农业灾害研究,2012,2(6):42-45.
[24]辛良杰,李秀彬.近年来我国南方双季稻区复种的变化及其政策启示.自然资源学报,2009,24(1):58-65.
[25]刘朝旭,刘黎明,彭倩.南方双季稻区农户水稻种植模式的决策行为分析——基于湖南省长沙县农户调查的实证研究.资源科学,2012,34(12):2234-2241.
(1)中国种子信息网http://www.seedchina.com.cn/,中国种业商务网http://www.chinaseed114.com/,中国种子集团公司http://www.chinaseeds.com.cn/,中国水稻信息网http://www.chinariceinfo.com/
[2]傅泽强,蔡运龙,杨友孝,等.中国粮食安全与耕地资源变化的相关分析.自然资源学报,2001,16(4):313-319.
[3]张元红,刘长全,国鲁来.中国粮食安全状况评价与战略思考.中国农村观察,2015(1):2-14.
[4]陈璐,胡月,韩学平,等.国家粮食安全中主产区粮食生产及其贡献的量化对比分析.中国土地科学,2017,31(9):34-42.
[5]樊闽,程锋.中国粮食生产能力发展状况分析.中国土地科学,2006,20(4):46-51.
[6]谢小蓉.我国粮食安全的多维观察.企业经济,2013(2):133-136.
[7]聂英.中国粮食安全的耕地贡献分析.经济学家,2015,1(1):83-93.
[8]胡恒洋.提升三大能力保障国家粮食安全.中国粮食经济,2017(2):26-29.
[9]谢高地,成升魁,肖玉,等.新时期中国粮食供需平衡态势及粮食安全观的重构.自然资源学报,2017,32(6):895-903.
[10]胡琼,吴文斌,项铭涛,等.全球耕地利用格局时空变化分析.中国农业科学,2018,51(6):1091-1105.
[11]张凤荣,薛永森,鞠正山,等.中国耕地的数量与质量变化分析.资源科学,1998,20(5):35-42.
[12]陈百明,周小萍.中国近期耕地资源与粮食综合生产能力的变化态势.资源科学,2004,26(5):38-45.
[13]陈印军,易小燕,方琳娜,等.中国耕地资源与粮食增产潜力分析.中国农业科学,2016,49(6):1117-1131.
[14]张晋科.中国耕地的粮食生产能力研究.北京:中国农业大学,2007.
[15]李相玺,尹忠东,何长高.土地生产潜力研究综述.水土保持学报,2001,15(5):33-36.
[16]李团胜,张艳,闫颖,等.基于农用地分等成果的陕西周至县耕地粮食生产能力测算.农业工程学报,2012,28(15):193-198.
[17]林毅夫,等.中国农业科研优先序我国主要粮食作物育种科研的需求和供给分析.北京:中国农业出版社,1996.
[18]中国耕作制度区划.北京:北京农业大学出版社,1987.
[19]曹志宏.基于谷物当量的中国居民食物消费变化及其对农业生产需求分析.资源科学,2013,35(11):2181-2187.
[20]向晶,钟甫宁.人口结构变动对未来粮食需求的影响:2010-2050.中国人口.资源与环境,2013,23(6):117-121.
[21]Guo J. H.,Liu X. J.,Zhang Y.,et al. Significant Acidification in Major Chinese Croplands. 2010,327(5968):1008-1010.
[22]曾勇军,周庆红,吕伟生,等.土壤酸化对双季早、晚稻产量的影响.作物学报,2014,40(5):899-907.
[23]李继红.我国土壤酸化的成因与防控研究.农业灾害研究,2012,2(6):42-45.
[24]辛良杰,李秀彬.近年来我国南方双季稻区复种的变化及其政策启示.自然资源学报,2009,24(1):58-65.
[25]刘朝旭,刘黎明,彭倩.南方双季稻区农户水稻种植模式的决策行为分析——基于湖南省长沙县农户调查的实证研究.资源科学,2012,34(12):2234-2241.
(1)中国种子信息网http://www.seedchina.com.cn/,中国种业商务网http://www.chinaseed114.com/,中国种子集团公司http://www.chinaseeds.com.cn/,中国水稻信息网http://www.chinariceinfo.com/