国家经济影响力和公共物品效率——基于亚洲开发银行的实证研究
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摘要
本文运用2010—2014年亚行的项目数据,在考虑空间相关性和空间异质性情况下,采用贝叶斯空间杜宾模型研究国家经济影响力对公共物品效率影响。实证结果显示:第一,提供国、接受国和接受国邻国经济影响力之间存在战略替代关系;第二,接受国经济影响力对公共物品效率的正向作用小于其邻国对公共物品效率的负向作用,接受国和其邻国经济影响力之间的战略替代关系不利于提高公共物品效率。亚投行在提供公共物品时既要考虑接受国的影响,也要考虑其邻国的利益诉求。
Considering spatial correlation and heterogeneity, this paper uses the 2010—2014 ADB project data to analyze the impact of national economy on the efficiency of public goods by adopting the Bayesian Spatial Durbin Model. The result shows that, firstly, there are strategically alternative relationship between and among the national economic influences of the countries providing and receiving public goods as well as their neighboring countries. Secondly, the positive effect of the economic influence of the receiving countries on the efficiency of public goods is less than the negative effect of the economic influences of its neighboring countries on the efficiency of public goods, and the strategically alternative relationship between the receiving countries and their neighboring countries is not conducive to improving the efficiency of public goods. In providing public goods, ADB should consider the impact of the receiving country and the interests of its neighbors.
Considering spatial correlation and heterogeneity, this paper uses the 2010—2014 ADB project data to analyze the impact of national economy on the efficiency of public goods by adopting the Bayesian Spatial Durbin Model. The result shows that, firstly, there are strategically alternative relationship between and among the national economic influences of the countries providing and receiving public goods as well as their neighboring countries. Secondly, the positive effect of the economic influence of the receiving countries on the efficiency of public goods is less than the negative effect of the economic influences of its neighboring countries on the efficiency of public goods, and the strategically alternative relationship between the receiving countries and their neighboring countries is not conducive to improving the efficiency of public goods. In providing public goods, ADB should consider the impact of the receiving country and the interests of its neighbors.
引文
[1]陈海磊,史清华,顾海英.农户土地流转是有效率的吗?——以山西为例[J].中国农村经济,2014(7):61-71
[2]管新帅,王思文.中国地方公共品供给效率地区差异测度[J].兰州大学学报(社会科学版),2009,37(4):43-47
[3]胡毅,王美今.IV估计的最优工具变量选取方法[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014(7):122-136
[4]刘天军,唐娟莉,霍学喜,朱玉春.农村公共物品供给效率测度及影响因素研究——基于陕西省的面板数据[J].农业技术经济,2012(2):63-73
[5]陆善勇,云倩.综合优势、发展战略与金融危机——对“东亚奇迹”及金融危机的再解释[J].国际贸易问题,2011(2):64-73
[6]骆永民.公共物品、分工演进与经济增长[J].财经研究,2008,34(5):110-122
[7]吴雪明.中国国际经济地位和国际经济影响力的综合分析[J].世界经济研究,2010(12):18-23
[8]杨利雄,李庆男.中国经济的区域影响力超过日本了吗?——基于不等方差检验的一种衡量方法[J].南方经济,2013(5):57-68
[9]余振,葛伟,沈铭辉.贸易成本对CAFTA经济收敛的影响[J].统计研究,2016(2):26-34
[10]Acemoglu D,Garcia-Jimeno C,Robinson J A.State Capacity and Economic Development:A Network Approach[J].The American Economic Review,2015,105(8):2364-2409
[11]Afonso A,Fernandes S.Assessing and Explaining the Relative Efficiency of Local Government[J].Journal of Socioeconomics,2008,37(5):1946-1979
[12]Bandyopadhyay S,Green E D.Pre-colonial Political Centralization and Contemporary Development in Uganda[J].Economic Development and Cultural Change,2016,64(3):471-508
[13]Besley T,Persson T.State Capacity,Conflict and Development[J].Econometrica,2010,78(1):1-34
[14]Evans P B.Embedded Autonomy[M].Princeton University Press,1995
[15]Gennaioli N,Rainer I.The Modern Impact of Precolonial Centralization in Africa[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2007,12(3):185-234
[16]Herbst J.States and Power in Africa[M].Princeton University Press,2014
[17]Knutsen C H.Democracy,State Capacity and Economic Growth[J].World Development,2013,43(43):1-18
[18]Le Sage J P,Fischer M M.Spatial Growth Regressions:Model Specification,Estimation and Interpretation[J].Spatial Economic Analysis,2008,3(3):275-304
[19]Lim D Y M.,Vreeland J R.Regional Organizations and International Politics:Japanese Influence over the Asian Development Bank and the UN Security Council[J].World Politics,2012,65(1):34-72
[20]Michalopoulos S,Papaioannou E.Pre-colonial Ethnic Institutions and Contemporary African Development[J].Econometrica,2013,81(1):113-152
[21]Seya H.,Tsutsumi M.,Yamagata Y.Income Convergence in Japan:A Bayesian Spatial Durbin Model Approach[J].Economic Modelling,2012,29(1):60-71
[22]Soundararajan P.Regional Income Convergence in India:A Bayesian Spatial Durbin Model Approach[J].Ssrn Electronic Journal,2013
(1)数据来源于亚行2017年2月28日发布的《满足亚洲基础设施建设需求》报告。
(2)借鉴管理学概念,公共物品效率包括两方面:一是生产效率。它指生产或者提供服务的平均成本。二是配置效率。它指组织所提供的产品或服务是否能够满足利害关系人的不同偏好。本文重点关注公共物品生产效率,即以成本收益来衡量。
(1)虽然亚行中美国和日本的股份份额相同,并列第一大股东,但自1966年亚行成立以来,九位行长均来自日本,而且美日关系属于同盟关系,在制定对外经济政策时具有高度相关性,因此为了简化本文实证,亚行的主导国只考虑日本。
(2)本文所指的邻国均为公共物品接受国的邻国,而非公共物品提供国的邻国。邻国定义采用空间计量模型中的广义“距离”概念,即距公共物品接受国最近的八个国家,这八个国家空间相关性最大,为公共物品接受国的邻国。
(1)本文样本国家(地区)包括2010—2014年已完成项目的亚行成员,分别为越南、老挝、菲律宾、柬埔寨、孟加拉国、不丹、印度尼西亚、印度、尼泊尔、斯里兰卡、中国、蒙古、塔吉克斯坦、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、亚美尼亚、格鲁吉亚、巴基斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、阿富汗、密克罗尼西亚、巴布亚新几内亚、东帝汶、阿塞拜疆、所罗门群岛、图瓦卢、马尔代夫、萨摩亚、泰国、马绍尔群岛、日本等31个国家和地区。
(1)由于文章篇幅限制,本文未提供99%置信区间数据。
(1)限于篇幅,本文未给出稳健性检验实证回归结果,感兴趣的读者可以向作者索取。
(2)由于只有道路有项目目标,因此安慰剂检验公共物品效率只用project R表示。
[2]管新帅,王思文.中国地方公共品供给效率地区差异测度[J].兰州大学学报(社会科学版),2009,37(4):43-47
[3]胡毅,王美今.IV估计的最优工具变量选取方法[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014(7):122-136
[4]刘天军,唐娟莉,霍学喜,朱玉春.农村公共物品供给效率测度及影响因素研究——基于陕西省的面板数据[J].农业技术经济,2012(2):63-73
[5]陆善勇,云倩.综合优势、发展战略与金融危机——对“东亚奇迹”及金融危机的再解释[J].国际贸易问题,2011(2):64-73
[6]骆永民.公共物品、分工演进与经济增长[J].财经研究,2008,34(5):110-122
[7]吴雪明.中国国际经济地位和国际经济影响力的综合分析[J].世界经济研究,2010(12):18-23
[8]杨利雄,李庆男.中国经济的区域影响力超过日本了吗?——基于不等方差检验的一种衡量方法[J].南方经济,2013(5):57-68
[9]余振,葛伟,沈铭辉.贸易成本对CAFTA经济收敛的影响[J].统计研究,2016(2):26-34
[10]Acemoglu D,Garcia-Jimeno C,Robinson J A.State Capacity and Economic Development:A Network Approach[J].The American Economic Review,2015,105(8):2364-2409
[11]Afonso A,Fernandes S.Assessing and Explaining the Relative Efficiency of Local Government[J].Journal of Socioeconomics,2008,37(5):1946-1979
[12]Bandyopadhyay S,Green E D.Pre-colonial Political Centralization and Contemporary Development in Uganda[J].Economic Development and Cultural Change,2016,64(3):471-508
[13]Besley T,Persson T.State Capacity,Conflict and Development[J].Econometrica,2010,78(1):1-34
[14]Evans P B.Embedded Autonomy[M].Princeton University Press,1995
[15]Gennaioli N,Rainer I.The Modern Impact of Precolonial Centralization in Africa[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2007,12(3):185-234
[16]Herbst J.States and Power in Africa[M].Princeton University Press,2014
[17]Knutsen C H.Democracy,State Capacity and Economic Growth[J].World Development,2013,43(43):1-18
[18]Le Sage J P,Fischer M M.Spatial Growth Regressions:Model Specification,Estimation and Interpretation[J].Spatial Economic Analysis,2008,3(3):275-304
[19]Lim D Y M.,Vreeland J R.Regional Organizations and International Politics:Japanese Influence over the Asian Development Bank and the UN Security Council[J].World Politics,2012,65(1):34-72
[20]Michalopoulos S,Papaioannou E.Pre-colonial Ethnic Institutions and Contemporary African Development[J].Econometrica,2013,81(1):113-152
[21]Seya H.,Tsutsumi M.,Yamagata Y.Income Convergence in Japan:A Bayesian Spatial Durbin Model Approach[J].Economic Modelling,2012,29(1):60-71
[22]Soundararajan P.Regional Income Convergence in India:A Bayesian Spatial Durbin Model Approach[J].Ssrn Electronic Journal,2013
(1)数据来源于亚行2017年2月28日发布的《满足亚洲基础设施建设需求》报告。
(2)借鉴管理学概念,公共物品效率包括两方面:一是生产效率。它指生产或者提供服务的平均成本。二是配置效率。它指组织所提供的产品或服务是否能够满足利害关系人的不同偏好。本文重点关注公共物品生产效率,即以成本收益来衡量。
(1)虽然亚行中美国和日本的股份份额相同,并列第一大股东,但自1966年亚行成立以来,九位行长均来自日本,而且美日关系属于同盟关系,在制定对外经济政策时具有高度相关性,因此为了简化本文实证,亚行的主导国只考虑日本。
(2)本文所指的邻国均为公共物品接受国的邻国,而非公共物品提供国的邻国。邻国定义采用空间计量模型中的广义“距离”概念,即距公共物品接受国最近的八个国家,这八个国家空间相关性最大,为公共物品接受国的邻国。
(1)本文样本国家(地区)包括2010—2014年已完成项目的亚行成员,分别为越南、老挝、菲律宾、柬埔寨、孟加拉国、不丹、印度尼西亚、印度、尼泊尔、斯里兰卡、中国、蒙古、塔吉克斯坦、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、亚美尼亚、格鲁吉亚、巴基斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、阿富汗、密克罗尼西亚、巴布亚新几内亚、东帝汶、阿塞拜疆、所罗门群岛、图瓦卢、马尔代夫、萨摩亚、泰国、马绍尔群岛、日本等31个国家和地区。
(1)由于文章篇幅限制,本文未提供99%置信区间数据。
(1)限于篇幅,本文未给出稳健性检验实证回归结果,感兴趣的读者可以向作者索取。
(2)由于只有道路有项目目标,因此安慰剂检验公共物品效率只用project R表示。