基于森林资源清查数据估算中国森林生物量固碳潜力
|
摘要
森林是全球陆地生态系统中最大的植被碳库和碳汇,森林固碳被认为是各国抵减工业温室气体排放的重要途径,通过森林资源清查数据编制国家温室气体清单也是大多数国家的选择。但是,由于森林固碳本身的复杂性,未来通过森林固碳能够抵消多少工业碳排放往往并不清楚。如何基于森林资源清查数据估算森林的固碳潜力,仍是一个值得深入研究的领域。通过能够公开获得的森林资源清查数据,分起源(人工林和天然林)、36个树种、5个林龄组建立了国家和省两级森林蓄积量年增长量模型,并以第六次森林资源清查期为起点,估算了基线情景(造林、管理、干扰、气候、采伐等条件不变)下2001—2200年前中国森林生物量变化和中国森林生物量固碳潜力。结果认为,天然林蓄积量年增长量一般低于人工林;多数天然林树种的蓄积量增长过程符合理论上认为的中间高、前后低的逻辑斯蒂曲线形式,即中龄林、近熟林、成熟林年增长量高,幼龄林和过熟林年增长量低;人工林蓄积量增长过程多为前期高、后期低的形式,即幼龄林、中龄林和近熟林年增长量高,成熟林和过熟林年增长量低。基线情景下中国森林碳容量为12.82 Pg C,其中人工林为6.6 Pg C,天然林为6.2 Pg C;相对于2001年碳储量来说,到2200年中国森林生物量固碳潜力为6.52 Pg C。综合已有研究认为,中国森林生物量固碳潜力为6.52—13.57 Pg C。本研究可以用于优化森林生长过程模型,为我国森林管理政策的制定提供参考。
Forests are the largest carbon pools and sinks of terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Forest carbon sequestration is an important method for reducing industrial greenhouse gases(GHG) emissions, and an option for conducting nationally determined contributions(NDCs) in most countries that signed the Paris Agreement, which aims to help humans limit global temperature increases by no more than 2℃ from pre-industry level. Most countries prepare national GHG inventories based on forest resources inventory data, which is considered as the most acceptable method. However, a few countries estimated the carbon sequestration potential of forests to offset the industry GHG emission in the future because of the uncertainty of forest carbon sequestration. Estimation of the carbon sequestration potential of forests based on forest resources inventory requires an improved understanding of forest growth and forestry sustainability. In this study, based on the publicly available National Forest Resources Inventory of China, we established a forest volume increase model for natural and planted forests of 36 forest types and five age groups at the national and provincial levels. We used the biomass expansion factor(BEF) to calculate the annual biomass from volume and estimated the carbon carrying capacity and carbon sequestration potential of China′s forest biomass in a baseline scenario(maintaining the current state of afforestation, management, disturbance, climate, harvesting, etc.). The results showed that the annual volume increase in natural forests was lower than that in planted forests. For natural forests, the volume slowly increased initially, then rapidly, and then slowly again. Young and over-mature forests increased slowly, while the middle, pre-mature and mature forests increased rapidly. For planted forests, the volume initially increased rapidly and then then slowly. Young, middle, and pre-mature forests increased rapidly, while mature and over-mature forests increased slowly. The carbon carry capacity of Chinese forests was 12.82 Pg C in the baseline scenario, in which the natural and planted forests showed values of 6.2 Pg C and 6.6 Pg C, respectively. The planted forests will reach a peak in 2085, and the natural forests will continue to absorb carbon after 2140. In 2200, the carbon sequestration potential of China′s forest biomass will be 6.52 Pg C compared to the forest carbon stock in 2001. Thus, China′s forests can conservative sequestrate of 6.52 Pg C even without any improvement or enhancement in forest management. The carbon sequestration potential is 6.52—13.57 Pg C based on our study and published studies. This study can help to improve forest productivity model and planning of climate change mitigation policies and forest management.
Forests are the largest carbon pools and sinks of terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Forest carbon sequestration is an important method for reducing industrial greenhouse gases(GHG) emissions, and an option for conducting nationally determined contributions(NDCs) in most countries that signed the Paris Agreement, which aims to help humans limit global temperature increases by no more than 2℃ from pre-industry level. Most countries prepare national GHG inventories based on forest resources inventory data, which is considered as the most acceptable method. However, a few countries estimated the carbon sequestration potential of forests to offset the industry GHG emission in the future because of the uncertainty of forest carbon sequestration. Estimation of the carbon sequestration potential of forests based on forest resources inventory requires an improved understanding of forest growth and forestry sustainability. In this study, based on the publicly available National Forest Resources Inventory of China, we established a forest volume increase model for natural and planted forests of 36 forest types and five age groups at the national and provincial levels. We used the biomass expansion factor(BEF) to calculate the annual biomass from volume and estimated the carbon carrying capacity and carbon sequestration potential of China′s forest biomass in a baseline scenario(maintaining the current state of afforestation, management, disturbance, climate, harvesting, etc.). The results showed that the annual volume increase in natural forests was lower than that in planted forests. For natural forests, the volume slowly increased initially, then rapidly, and then slowly again. Young and over-mature forests increased slowly, while the middle, pre-mature and mature forests increased rapidly. For planted forests, the volume initially increased rapidly and then then slowly. Young, middle, and pre-mature forests increased rapidly, while mature and over-mature forests increased slowly. The carbon carry capacity of Chinese forests was 12.82 Pg C in the baseline scenario, in which the natural and planted forests showed values of 6.2 Pg C and 6.6 Pg C, respectively. The planted forests will reach a peak in 2085, and the natural forests will continue to absorb carbon after 2140. In 2200, the carbon sequestration potential of China′s forest biomass will be 6.52 Pg C compared to the forest carbon stock in 2001. Thus, China′s forests can conservative sequestrate of 6.52 Pg C even without any improvement or enhancement in forest management. The carbon sequestration potential is 6.52—13.57 Pg C based on our study and published studies. This study can help to improve forest productivity model and planning of climate change mitigation policies and forest management.
引文
[1] Pan Y D,Birdsey R A,Fang J Y,Houghton R,Kauppi P E,Kurz W A,Phillips O L,Shvidenko A,Lewis S L,Canadell J G,Ciais P,Jackson R B,Pacala S W,McGuire A D,Piao S L,Rautiainen A,Sitch S,Hayes D.A large and persistent carbon sink in the world′s forests.Science,2011,333(6045):988- 993.
[2] 联合国.巴黎协定.2015,https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/chinese_paris_agreement.pdf.
[3] 肖兴威.中国森林资源清查.北京:中国林业出版社,2005.
[4] 方精云,刘国华,徐嵩龄.我国森林植被的生物量和净生产量.生态学报,1996,16(5):497- 508.
[5] Chen J,Chen W J,Liu J,Cihlar J,Gray S.Annual carbon balance of Canada′s forests during 1895- 1996.Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2000,14(3):839- 849.
[6] Zhou G S,Wang Y H,Jiang Y L,Yang Z Y.Estimating biomass and net primary production from forest inventory data:a case study of China′s Larix forests.Forest Ecology and Management,2002,169(1/2):149- 157.
[7] Shvidenko A,Nilsson S.Dynamics of Russian forests and the carbon budget in 1961- 1998:an assessment based on long-term forest inventory data.Climatic Change,2002,55(1/2):5- 37.
[8] Pan Y D,Luo T X,Birdsey R,Hom J,Melillo J.New estimates of carbon storage and sequestration in china′s forests:effects of age-class and method on inventory-based carbon estimation.Climatic Change,2004,67(2/3):211- 236.
[9] 徐新良.造林对森林生态系统植被碳储量的影响研究[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院,2006.
[10] 李海奎,雷渊才,曾伟生.基于森林清查资料的中国森林植被碳储量.林业科学,2011,47(7):7- 12.
[11] Xu B,Guo Z D,Piao S L,Fang J Y.Biomass carbon stocks in China′s forests between 2000 and 2050:A prediction based on forest biomass-age relationships.Science China Life Sciences,2010,53(7):776- 783.
[12] Huang L,Liu J Y,Shao Q Q,Xu X L.Carbon sequestration by forestation across China:Past,present,and future.Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2012,16(2):1291- 1299.
[13] 李斌,方晰,项文化,田大伦.湖南省杉木林植被碳贮量、碳密度及碳吸存潜力.林业科学,2013,49(3):25- 32.
[14] 阮宇,张小全,杜凡.中国木质林产品碳贮量.生态学报,2006,26(12):4212- 4218.
[15] Brown S,Lugo A E.Biomass of tropical forests:a new estimate based on forest volumes.Science,1984,223(4642):1290- 1293.
[16] Odum E P.The strategy of ecosystem development.Science,1969,164(3877):262- 270.
[17] Liu Y C,Yu G R,Wang Q F,Zhang Y J.Huge carbon sequestration potential in global forests.Journal of Resources and Ecology,2012,3(3):193- 201.
[18] Liu Y C,Yu G R,Wang Q F,Zhang Y J,Xu Z H.Carbon carry capacity and carbon sequestration potential in China based on an integrated analysis of mature forest biomass.Science China Life Sciences,2014,57(12):1218- 1229.
[19] Liu Y C,Yu G R,Wang Q F,Zhang Y J.How temperature,precipitation and stand age control the biomass carbon density of global mature forests.Global Ecology and Biogeography,2014,23(3):323- 333.
[20] 张煜星.人工造林对森林覆盖率的贡献分析.东北林业大学学报,2007,35(3):76- 78.
[21] 邓华卫,布仁仓,刘晓梅,贺伟,胡远满,黄乃伟.模拟分类经营对小兴安岭林区森林生物量的影响.生态学报,2012,32(21):6679- 6687.
[22] 刘迎春,王秋凤,于贵瑞,朱先进,展小云,郭群,杨浩,李胜功,胡中民.黄土丘陵区两种主要退耕还林树种生态系统碳储量和固碳潜力.生态学报,2011,31(15):4277- 4286.
[23] 于贵瑞,王秋凤,刘迎春,刘颖慧.区域尺度陆地生态系统固碳速率和增汇潜力概念框架及其定量认证科学基础.地理科学进展,2011,30(7):771- 787.
[24] Wang S,Chen J M,Ju W M,Feng X,Chen M,Chen P,Yu G.Carbon sinks and sources in China′s forests during 1901- 2001.Journal of Environmental Management,2007,85(3):524- 537.
[25] Li K R,Wang S Q,Cao M K.Vegetation and soil carbon storage in China.Science in China Series D-Earth Sciences,2004,47(1):49- 57.
[26] Ju W M,Chen J M,Harvey D,Wang S.Future carbon balance of China′s forests under climate change and increasing CO2.Journal of Environmental Management,2007,85(3):538- 562.
[27] Zhang C X,Xie G D,Zhen L,Li S M,Deng X Z.Estimates of variation in Chinese terrestrial carbon storage under an environmental conservation policy scenario for 2000- 2025.Journal of Resources and Ecology,2011,2(4):315- 321.
[28] 于贵瑞,王秋凤.植物光合、蒸腾与水分利用的生理生态学.北京:科学出版社,2010.
[2] 联合国.巴黎协定.2015,https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/chinese_paris_agreement.pdf.
[3] 肖兴威.中国森林资源清查.北京:中国林业出版社,2005.
[4] 方精云,刘国华,徐嵩龄.我国森林植被的生物量和净生产量.生态学报,1996,16(5):497- 508.
[5] Chen J,Chen W J,Liu J,Cihlar J,Gray S.Annual carbon balance of Canada′s forests during 1895- 1996.Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2000,14(3):839- 849.
[6] Zhou G S,Wang Y H,Jiang Y L,Yang Z Y.Estimating biomass and net primary production from forest inventory data:a case study of China′s Larix forests.Forest Ecology and Management,2002,169(1/2):149- 157.
[7] Shvidenko A,Nilsson S.Dynamics of Russian forests and the carbon budget in 1961- 1998:an assessment based on long-term forest inventory data.Climatic Change,2002,55(1/2):5- 37.
[8] Pan Y D,Luo T X,Birdsey R,Hom J,Melillo J.New estimates of carbon storage and sequestration in china′s forests:effects of age-class and method on inventory-based carbon estimation.Climatic Change,2004,67(2/3):211- 236.
[9] 徐新良.造林对森林生态系统植被碳储量的影响研究[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院,2006.
[10] 李海奎,雷渊才,曾伟生.基于森林清查资料的中国森林植被碳储量.林业科学,2011,47(7):7- 12.
[11] Xu B,Guo Z D,Piao S L,Fang J Y.Biomass carbon stocks in China′s forests between 2000 and 2050:A prediction based on forest biomass-age relationships.Science China Life Sciences,2010,53(7):776- 783.
[12] Huang L,Liu J Y,Shao Q Q,Xu X L.Carbon sequestration by forestation across China:Past,present,and future.Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2012,16(2):1291- 1299.
[13] 李斌,方晰,项文化,田大伦.湖南省杉木林植被碳贮量、碳密度及碳吸存潜力.林业科学,2013,49(3):25- 32.
[14] 阮宇,张小全,杜凡.中国木质林产品碳贮量.生态学报,2006,26(12):4212- 4218.
[15] Brown S,Lugo A E.Biomass of tropical forests:a new estimate based on forest volumes.Science,1984,223(4642):1290- 1293.
[16] Odum E P.The strategy of ecosystem development.Science,1969,164(3877):262- 270.
[17] Liu Y C,Yu G R,Wang Q F,Zhang Y J.Huge carbon sequestration potential in global forests.Journal of Resources and Ecology,2012,3(3):193- 201.
[18] Liu Y C,Yu G R,Wang Q F,Zhang Y J,Xu Z H.Carbon carry capacity and carbon sequestration potential in China based on an integrated analysis of mature forest biomass.Science China Life Sciences,2014,57(12):1218- 1229.
[19] Liu Y C,Yu G R,Wang Q F,Zhang Y J.How temperature,precipitation and stand age control the biomass carbon density of global mature forests.Global Ecology and Biogeography,2014,23(3):323- 333.
[20] 张煜星.人工造林对森林覆盖率的贡献分析.东北林业大学学报,2007,35(3):76- 78.
[21] 邓华卫,布仁仓,刘晓梅,贺伟,胡远满,黄乃伟.模拟分类经营对小兴安岭林区森林生物量的影响.生态学报,2012,32(21):6679- 6687.
[22] 刘迎春,王秋凤,于贵瑞,朱先进,展小云,郭群,杨浩,李胜功,胡中民.黄土丘陵区两种主要退耕还林树种生态系统碳储量和固碳潜力.生态学报,2011,31(15):4277- 4286.
[23] 于贵瑞,王秋凤,刘迎春,刘颖慧.区域尺度陆地生态系统固碳速率和增汇潜力概念框架及其定量认证科学基础.地理科学进展,2011,30(7):771- 787.
[24] Wang S,Chen J M,Ju W M,Feng X,Chen M,Chen P,Yu G.Carbon sinks and sources in China′s forests during 1901- 2001.Journal of Environmental Management,2007,85(3):524- 537.
[25] Li K R,Wang S Q,Cao M K.Vegetation and soil carbon storage in China.Science in China Series D-Earth Sciences,2004,47(1):49- 57.
[26] Ju W M,Chen J M,Harvey D,Wang S.Future carbon balance of China′s forests under climate change and increasing CO2.Journal of Environmental Management,2007,85(3):538- 562.
[27] Zhang C X,Xie G D,Zhen L,Li S M,Deng X Z.Estimates of variation in Chinese terrestrial carbon storage under an environmental conservation policy scenario for 2000- 2025.Journal of Resources and Ecology,2011,2(4):315- 321.
[28] 于贵瑞,王秋凤.植物光合、蒸腾与水分利用的生理生态学.北京:科学出版社,2010.