“3·23”云南省景谷傣族彝族自治县冰雹灾害天气原因分析
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摘要
从防灾减灾的角度,以"3·23"景谷县冰雹灾害天气为例,运用国家级站降水实况资料、卫星资料、闪电定位仪资料、Micaps常规资料、区域自动站资料和新一代天气雷达体扫资料等,分别对这次灾害天气过程进行预警指标分析,并采用美国NEXRAD的新一代冰雹探测算法,对该灾害天气过程进行了检验。分析表明:该灾害主要由冰雹天气过程造成;从雷达资料和闪电定位仪资料能够清晰准确反映冰雹天气过程的发生发展过程,具有较好的防灾价值,雷达观测的几个要素指标能较好的预示受灾的区域和强度,闪电频次、回波强度、强回波顶高、中气旋等指标能为这类灾害性天气提供短临预警依据;同时,冰雹灾害性天气通常伴随雷电、大风等灾害天气,也会造成重大灾害。另外,也应注意到冰雹天气通常是局地中小尺度的,但分析发现局地中小尺度的灾害天气也常有大尺度的天气背景作用,可从探空资料加以分析。
From the point of view of disaster prevention and mitigation, taking "3.23" hail disaster weather in Jinggu County as an example, the early warning index of this disaster weather process is analyzed by using precipitation data from national stations, satellite data, lightning locator data, Micaps routine data, regional automatic station data and new generation weather radar body scan data, and the new generation hail detection calculation of NEXRAD in the United States is adopted. The method is used to test the weather process of the disaster. The analysis shows that the disaster is mainly caused by hail weather process; radar data and lightning locator data can clearly and accurately reflect the occurrence and development of hail weather process, and have better disaster prevention value. Several key indicators of radar observation can better predict the disaster area and intensity, such as lightning frequency, echo intensity, strong echo peak height, and mesocyclone. Catastrophic weather provides a basis for short-term and imminent warning; at the same time, hail disastrous weather usually accompanied by thunder and lightning, gale and other disastrous weather, will also cause major disasters. In addition, it should be noted that hail weather is usually local meso-scale, but the analysis found that local meso-scale disastrous weather often has large-scale weather background effect, which can be analyzed from sounding data.
From the point of view of disaster prevention and mitigation, taking "3.23" hail disaster weather in Jinggu County as an example, the early warning index of this disaster weather process is analyzed by using precipitation data from national stations, satellite data, lightning locator data, Micaps routine data, regional automatic station data and new generation weather radar body scan data, and the new generation hail detection calculation of NEXRAD in the United States is adopted. The method is used to test the weather process of the disaster. The analysis shows that the disaster is mainly caused by hail weather process; radar data and lightning locator data can clearly and accurately reflect the occurrence and development of hail weather process, and have better disaster prevention value. Several key indicators of radar observation can better predict the disaster area and intensity, such as lightning frequency, echo intensity, strong echo peak height, and mesocyclone. Catastrophic weather provides a basis for short-term and imminent warning; at the same time, hail disastrous weather usually accompanied by thunder and lightning, gale and other disastrous weather, will also cause major disasters. In addition, it should be noted that hail weather is usually local meso-scale, but the analysis found that local meso-scale disastrous weather often has large-scale weather background effect, which can be analyzed from sounding data.
引文
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[13] 徐八林,刘黎平,王改利,等.低纬高原上中-γ尺度微单体暴雨个例的观测分析[J].高原气象,2010,29(3): 778-785.
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[15] Winston, H A. A comparison of three radar-based severe-storm-detection algorithms on Colorado High Plains thunderstorms[J].Weather & Forecasting,2009,3(2): 1309-1314.
[16] 付双喜,安林,康凤琴,等.VIL在识别冰雹云中的应用及估测误差[J].高原气象,2004,23(6): 810-814.
[17] PetrocchiPJ. Automatic detection of hail by radar[M]. Air Force Geophysics Laboratory, Hanscom AFB, MA, 33.1982.
[18] OTB, OSF. WSR-88D OPERATIONS COURSE[R].1997: 102-108.
[2] Forsyth D E, C Bjerkacs and Petrocchi. Modular Radar analysis software system (MRA SS) [C]//preprints,20th National Conventional Conference on Radar Meteorology,1978: 696-699.
[3] 刘黎平, 张胡发.利用双线偏振雷达识别冰雹区方法初探[J]. 高原气象, 1993,12(3): 333-337.
[4] 刘黎平,徐宝祥,王致君,等.用C波段双线偏振雷达研究冰雹云[J].大气科学. 1992,16(3): 370-376.
[5] 周治黔.多普勒雷达冰雹云回波的初步分析[J].贵州气象,2005,26(5): 32-34.
[6] 李军霞.一次冰雹过程的多普勒雷达资料分析[J].山西气象,2003,21(3): 52-55.
[7] 段鹤,严华生,马学文,等.滇南冰雹的预报预警研究[J].气象,2014,40(2): 174-185.
[8] 张崇莉,钱宝敏,和卫东,等.VIL 产品在高山雷达中的应用研究[J].高原气象, 2012,31(2): 562-567.
[9] 解明恩.程建刚.云南气象灾害特征及成因分析[J].地理科学,2004,24(6): 721-726.
[10] 徐舒扬,周德丽,苗绍慧,等.台风“威马逊”造成云南强降水灾害天气分析[J].灾害学,2016,31(4): 229-234.
[11] 段玮,胡娟,赵宁坤,等.云南冰雹灾害气候特征及其变化[J].灾害学,2017,32(2):90-96.
[12] 李湘,张腾飞,胡娟,等.云南冰雹灾害的多普勒雷达特征统计及预警指标[J].灾害学,2015,30(3): 88 -93.
[13] 徐八林,刘黎平,王改利,等.低纬高原上中-γ尺度微单体暴雨个例的观测分析[J].高原气象,2010,29(3): 778-785.
[14] Greene D R, R A Clark. An indicator of explosive development in severe storm [C]//7th Conf.on Severe Local Storms. Missouri:AMS 1971: 97-104.
[15] Winston, H A. A comparison of three radar-based severe-storm-detection algorithms on Colorado High Plains thunderstorms[J].Weather & Forecasting,2009,3(2): 1309-1314.
[16] 付双喜,安林,康凤琴,等.VIL在识别冰雹云中的应用及估测误差[J].高原气象,2004,23(6): 810-814.
[17] PetrocchiPJ. Automatic detection of hail by radar[M]. Air Force Geophysics Laboratory, Hanscom AFB, MA, 33.1982.
[18] OTB, OSF. WSR-88D OPERATIONS COURSE[R].1997: 102-108.