天然气管网系统可靠性评价指标研究
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摘要
天然气管网系统是指由多条干线天然气长输管道及其配套储气调峰设施组成的、各子系统之间具有信息和天然气互联互通能力的大型基础设施。天然气管网系统作为连接天然气资源和市场的纽带,其可靠运行直接关系天然气的安全平稳供应。因此,有必要对天然气管网系统可靠性进行研究,保障我国公共安全和能源安全。其中,提出一套客观、明确的指标体系用以量化天然气管网系统的可靠性是管网系统可靠性研究的关键。本文归纳和总结了天然气管网系统可靠性研究成果,基于天然气管网的特征和功能,并结合管网可靠性研究的应用需求,将管网系统可靠性分为机械可靠性、水力可靠性和供气可靠性。基于此,提出三类可靠性评价指标,包括管网系统机械可靠性评价指标、水力可靠性评价指标和供气可靠性评价指标,分别用于表征系统正常运行能力、完成供气任务能力和满足市场需求能力。
A natural gas pipeline network system is an example of large-scale infrastructure. It is composed of a number of long-distance natural gas transmission pipelines and their supporting facilities such as underground gas storages, with information and natural gas interconnection capabilities. As critical infrastructure connecting gas resources and markets, the security of gas supply is directly related to the safe and reliable operation of the natural gas pipeline network system. Therefore,it is necessary to study the reliability of natural gas pipeline systems to ensure public safety and energy security in China. Anobjective reliability index system is the key to quantifying the reliability of the natural gas pipeline network system. In this paper, by reviewing previous research into natural gas pipeline network reliability and combining the practical application requirements of the pipeline network reliability research, the reliability of natural gas pipeline network systems is divided into mechanical reliability, hydraulic reliability, and gas supply reliability based on the characteristics and functions of the natural gas pipeline network. Moreover, three types of reliability evaluation indicators are proposed, and are used to quantify the capacity of normal operation, the capacity of completing the required gas supply tasks, and the capacity of satisfying required demand.
A natural gas pipeline network system is an example of large-scale infrastructure. It is composed of a number of long-distance natural gas transmission pipelines and their supporting facilities such as underground gas storages, with information and natural gas interconnection capabilities. As critical infrastructure connecting gas resources and markets, the security of gas supply is directly related to the safe and reliable operation of the natural gas pipeline network system. Therefore,it is necessary to study the reliability of natural gas pipeline systems to ensure public safety and energy security in China. Anobjective reliability index system is the key to quantifying the reliability of the natural gas pipeline network system. In this paper, by reviewing previous research into natural gas pipeline network reliability and combining the practical application requirements of the pipeline network reliability research, the reliability of natural gas pipeline network systems is divided into mechanical reliability, hydraulic reliability, and gas supply reliability based on the characteristics and functions of the natural gas pipeline network. Moreover, three types of reliability evaluation indicators are proposed, and are used to quantify the capacity of normal operation, the capacity of completing the required gas supply tasks, and the capacity of satisfying required demand.
引文
[1]黄维和.大型天然气管网系统可靠性[J].石油学报,2013,34(2):401-404.[HUANG W H.Reliability of large-scale natural gas pipeline network[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2013,34(2):401-404.]
[2]宋东昱,严大凡.天然气管道可靠性特征量[J].天然气工业,1997,6:50-53.[SONG D Y,YAN D F.Reliability characteristic quantity of natural gas pipeline[J].Natural Gas Industry,1997,17:50-53.]
[3]曲慎扬.油气管道可靠性评价指标及其计算[J].油气储运,1996,15(4):1-4.[QU S Y.Evaluation indexes and calculations of the reliability of oil and gas pipelines[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,1996(4),15,1-4.]
[4]JO Y D,AHN B J.A method of quantitative risk assessment for transmission pipeline carrying natural gas[J].Journal of hazardous materials,2005,123(1-3):1-12.
[5]HAN Z Y,WENG W G.An integrated quantitative risk analysis method for natural gas pipeline network[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2010,23(3):428-436.
[6]HAN Z Y,WENG W G.Comparison study on qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network[J].Journal of hazardous materials,2011,189(1-2):509-518.
[7]温凯,张文伟,宫敬,等.天然气管道可靠性的计算方法[J].油气储运,2014,33(7):729-733.[WEN K,ZHANG W W,GONG J,et al.Computation of gas pipeline reliability[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2014,33(7),729-733.]
[8]LI S X,YU S R,ZENG H L,et al.Predicting corrosion remaining life of underground pipelines with a mechanically-based probabilistic model[J].Journal of Petroleum Science&Engineering,2009,65(3):162-166.
[9]ZHOU W.System reliability of corroding pipelines[J].International Journal of Pressure Vessels&Piping,2010,87(10):587-595.
[10]DUNDULIS G,?UTAUTAIT?I,JANULIONIS R,et al.Integrated failure probability estimation based on structural integrity analysis and failure data:Natural gas pipeline case[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2016,156:195-202
[11]LAM C,ZHOU W.Statistical analyses of incidents on onshore gas transmission pipelines based on PHMSA database[J].International Journal of Pressure Vessels&Piping,2016,145:29-40.
[12]虞维超,薛鲁宁,黄维和,等.储气库可靠性一体化分析方法研究[J].石油科学通报,2017,2(1):102-114.[YU W C,XUE L N,HUANG W H,et al.An integration method for evaluating the operating reliability of underground natural gas storage[J].Petroleum Science Bulletin,2017,2(1):102-114.]
[13]WANG H,DUNCAN I J.Likelihood,causes,and consequences of focused leakage and rupture of US natural gas transmission pipelines[J].Journal of loss prevention in the process industries,2014,30:177-187.
[14]YU W,ZHANG J,WEN K,et al.A novel methodology to update the reliability of the corroding natural gas pipeline by introducing the effects of failure data and corrective maintenance[J].International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping,2019,169:48-56.
[15]ZHANG S,ZHOU W.An efficient methodology for the reliability analysis of corroding pipelines[C]//2012 9th International Pipeline Conference,Calgary,Canada,American Society of Mechanical Engineers,2012:683-692.
[16]TEIXEIRA A P,SOARES C G,NETTO T A,et al.Reliability of pipelines with corrosion defects[J].International Journal of Pressure Vessels&Piping,2008,85(4):228-237.
[17]GONG C,ZHOU W.Improvement of equivalent component approach for reliability analyses of series systems[J].Structural Safety,2017,68:65-72.
[18]RAUSAND M,H?YLAND A.System reliability theory:Models,statistical methods,and applications[M].John Wiley&Sons,2004.
[19]SANTOS S P D,BITTENCOURT M A S,VASCONCELLOS L D.Compressor station availability:Managing its effects on gas pipeline operation[C]//2006 6th International Pipeline Conference,Calgary,Canada,American Society of Mechanical Engineers,2006:855-863.
[20]WITEK M,BATURA A,ORYNYAK I,et al.An integrated risk assessment of onshore gas transmission pipelines based on defect population[J].Engineering Structures,2018,173:150-165.
[21]AVEN T.Availability evaluation of oil/gas production and transportation systems[J].Reliability Engineering,1987,18(1):35-44.
[22]梁光川,罗敏,张川东,等.输气管网的水力可靠性分析方法[J].天然气工业,2006,26(4):125-127.[LIANG G C,LUO M,ZHANG C D,et al.Analysis methods for hydraulic credibility of gas transmission pipeline networks[J].Natural Gas Industry,2006,26(4):125.]
[23]LI J,QIN C,YAN M Q,et al.Hydraulic reliability analysis of an urban loop high-pressure gas network[J].Journal of Natural Gas Science&Engineering,2015,28:372-378.
[24]SUKHAREV M G,KARASEVICH A M.Reliability models for gas supply systems[J].Automation&Remote Control,2010,71(7):1415-1424.
[25]YU W,WEN K,MIN Y,et al.A methodology to quantify the gas supply capacity of natural gas transmission pipeline system using reliability theory[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2018,175:128-141.
[26]PRAKS P,KOPUSTINSKAS V,MASERA M.Probabilistic modelling of security of supply in gas networks and evaluation of new infrastructure[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2015,144:254-264.
[27]孔文惠.陕京输气系统对北京地区的供气可靠性研究.[D].北京:中国石油大学(北京),2016.[KONG W H.The reliability of Shan-Jing pipelines’gas supply for Beijing market[D].Beijing:China University of Petroleum(Beijing),2016.]
[28]刘文超.基于图论的我国天然气管网可靠性研究.[D].北京:中国石油大学(北京),2016.[LIU W C.China natural gas pipe network reliability research based on graph theory[D].Beijing:China University of Petroleum(Beijing),2016.]
[29]MONFORTI F,SZIKSZAI A.A MonteCarlo approach for assessing the adequacy of the European gas transmission system under supply crisis conditions[J].Energy Policy,2010,38(5):2486-2498.
[30]SZIKSZAI A,MONFORTI F.GEMFLOW:A time dependent model to assess responses to natural gas supply crises[J].Energy Policy,2011,39(9):5129-5136.
[31]OLANREWAJU O T,CHAUDRY M,QADRDAN M,et al.Vulnerability assessment of the European natural gas supply[J].Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Energy,2015,168(1):5-15.
[32]范慕炜,宫敬,伍阳,等.基于简化拓扑结构的陕京天然气管网供气可靠性分析[J].天然气工业,2017,37(4).[FAN M W,GONG J,WU Y,et al.Gas supply reliability analysis of the Shaanxi-Beijing gas pipeline network based on the simplified topological structure[J].Natural Gas Industry,2017,37(4):123-129.]
[33]FAERTES D,HEIL L,SAKER L,et al.Reliability modelling-PETROBRAS 2010 integrated gas supply chain[C]//2010 8th International Pipeline Conference.Calgary,Canada,American Society of Mechanical Engineers,2010:497-505.
[34]FAERTES D.Reliability of supply chains and business continuity management[J].Procedia Computer Science,2015,55:1400-1409.
[35]FAN M W,GONG J,WU Y,et al.The gas supply reliability analysis of natural gas pipeline network based on simplified topological structure[J].Journal of Renewable&Sustainable Energy,2017,9(4):045503.
[36]范慕炜.陕京天然气管网系统可靠度计算方法研究.[D].北京:中国石油大学(北京),2017.[FAN M W.Study on reliability calculation of Shan-Jing natural gas pipeline network system[D].Beijing:China University of Petroleum(Beijing),2017.]
[37]RIMKEVICIUS S,KALIATKA A,VALINCIUS M,et al.Development of approach for reliability assessment of pipeline network systems[J].Applied Energy,2012,94(6):22-33.
[38]SU H,ZHANG J,ZIO E,et al.An integrated systemic method for supply reliability assessment of natural gas pipeline networks[J].Applied Energy,2018,209:489-501.
[39]CHAUDRY M,WU J,JENKINS N.A sequential Monte Carlo model of the combined GB gas and electricity network[J].Energy Policy,2013,62:473-483.
[40]YU W,SONG S,LI Y,et al.Gas supply reliability assessment of natural gas transmission pipeline systems[J].Energy,2018,162:853-870.
[41]YU W,WEN K,LI Y,et al.A methodology to assess the gas supply capacity and gas supply reliability of a natural gas pipeline network system[C]//2018 12th International Pipeline Conference,Calgary,Canada,American Society of Mechanical Engineers,2018:V002T07A006-V002T07A009.
[2]宋东昱,严大凡.天然气管道可靠性特征量[J].天然气工业,1997,6:50-53.[SONG D Y,YAN D F.Reliability characteristic quantity of natural gas pipeline[J].Natural Gas Industry,1997,17:50-53.]
[3]曲慎扬.油气管道可靠性评价指标及其计算[J].油气储运,1996,15(4):1-4.[QU S Y.Evaluation indexes and calculations of the reliability of oil and gas pipelines[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,1996(4),15,1-4.]
[4]JO Y D,AHN B J.A method of quantitative risk assessment for transmission pipeline carrying natural gas[J].Journal of hazardous materials,2005,123(1-3):1-12.
[5]HAN Z Y,WENG W G.An integrated quantitative risk analysis method for natural gas pipeline network[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2010,23(3):428-436.
[6]HAN Z Y,WENG W G.Comparison study on qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network[J].Journal of hazardous materials,2011,189(1-2):509-518.
[7]温凯,张文伟,宫敬,等.天然气管道可靠性的计算方法[J].油气储运,2014,33(7):729-733.[WEN K,ZHANG W W,GONG J,et al.Computation of gas pipeline reliability[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2014,33(7),729-733.]
[8]LI S X,YU S R,ZENG H L,et al.Predicting corrosion remaining life of underground pipelines with a mechanically-based probabilistic model[J].Journal of Petroleum Science&Engineering,2009,65(3):162-166.
[9]ZHOU W.System reliability of corroding pipelines[J].International Journal of Pressure Vessels&Piping,2010,87(10):587-595.
[10]DUNDULIS G,?UTAUTAIT?I,JANULIONIS R,et al.Integrated failure probability estimation based on structural integrity analysis and failure data:Natural gas pipeline case[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2016,156:195-202
[11]LAM C,ZHOU W.Statistical analyses of incidents on onshore gas transmission pipelines based on PHMSA database[J].International Journal of Pressure Vessels&Piping,2016,145:29-40.
[12]虞维超,薛鲁宁,黄维和,等.储气库可靠性一体化分析方法研究[J].石油科学通报,2017,2(1):102-114.[YU W C,XUE L N,HUANG W H,et al.An integration method for evaluating the operating reliability of underground natural gas storage[J].Petroleum Science Bulletin,2017,2(1):102-114.]
[13]WANG H,DUNCAN I J.Likelihood,causes,and consequences of focused leakage and rupture of US natural gas transmission pipelines[J].Journal of loss prevention in the process industries,2014,30:177-187.
[14]YU W,ZHANG J,WEN K,et al.A novel methodology to update the reliability of the corroding natural gas pipeline by introducing the effects of failure data and corrective maintenance[J].International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping,2019,169:48-56.
[15]ZHANG S,ZHOU W.An efficient methodology for the reliability analysis of corroding pipelines[C]//2012 9th International Pipeline Conference,Calgary,Canada,American Society of Mechanical Engineers,2012:683-692.
[16]TEIXEIRA A P,SOARES C G,NETTO T A,et al.Reliability of pipelines with corrosion defects[J].International Journal of Pressure Vessels&Piping,2008,85(4):228-237.
[17]GONG C,ZHOU W.Improvement of equivalent component approach for reliability analyses of series systems[J].Structural Safety,2017,68:65-72.
[18]RAUSAND M,H?YLAND A.System reliability theory:Models,statistical methods,and applications[M].John Wiley&Sons,2004.
[19]SANTOS S P D,BITTENCOURT M A S,VASCONCELLOS L D.Compressor station availability:Managing its effects on gas pipeline operation[C]//2006 6th International Pipeline Conference,Calgary,Canada,American Society of Mechanical Engineers,2006:855-863.
[20]WITEK M,BATURA A,ORYNYAK I,et al.An integrated risk assessment of onshore gas transmission pipelines based on defect population[J].Engineering Structures,2018,173:150-165.
[21]AVEN T.Availability evaluation of oil/gas production and transportation systems[J].Reliability Engineering,1987,18(1):35-44.
[22]梁光川,罗敏,张川东,等.输气管网的水力可靠性分析方法[J].天然气工业,2006,26(4):125-127.[LIANG G C,LUO M,ZHANG C D,et al.Analysis methods for hydraulic credibility of gas transmission pipeline networks[J].Natural Gas Industry,2006,26(4):125.]
[23]LI J,QIN C,YAN M Q,et al.Hydraulic reliability analysis of an urban loop high-pressure gas network[J].Journal of Natural Gas Science&Engineering,2015,28:372-378.
[24]SUKHAREV M G,KARASEVICH A M.Reliability models for gas supply systems[J].Automation&Remote Control,2010,71(7):1415-1424.
[25]YU W,WEN K,MIN Y,et al.A methodology to quantify the gas supply capacity of natural gas transmission pipeline system using reliability theory[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2018,175:128-141.
[26]PRAKS P,KOPUSTINSKAS V,MASERA M.Probabilistic modelling of security of supply in gas networks and evaluation of new infrastructure[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2015,144:254-264.
[27]孔文惠.陕京输气系统对北京地区的供气可靠性研究.[D].北京:中国石油大学(北京),2016.[KONG W H.The reliability of Shan-Jing pipelines’gas supply for Beijing market[D].Beijing:China University of Petroleum(Beijing),2016.]
[28]刘文超.基于图论的我国天然气管网可靠性研究.[D].北京:中国石油大学(北京),2016.[LIU W C.China natural gas pipe network reliability research based on graph theory[D].Beijing:China University of Petroleum(Beijing),2016.]
[29]MONFORTI F,SZIKSZAI A.A MonteCarlo approach for assessing the adequacy of the European gas transmission system under supply crisis conditions[J].Energy Policy,2010,38(5):2486-2498.
[30]SZIKSZAI A,MONFORTI F.GEMFLOW:A time dependent model to assess responses to natural gas supply crises[J].Energy Policy,2011,39(9):5129-5136.
[31]OLANREWAJU O T,CHAUDRY M,QADRDAN M,et al.Vulnerability assessment of the European natural gas supply[J].Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Energy,2015,168(1):5-15.
[32]范慕炜,宫敬,伍阳,等.基于简化拓扑结构的陕京天然气管网供气可靠性分析[J].天然气工业,2017,37(4).[FAN M W,GONG J,WU Y,et al.Gas supply reliability analysis of the Shaanxi-Beijing gas pipeline network based on the simplified topological structure[J].Natural Gas Industry,2017,37(4):123-129.]
[33]FAERTES D,HEIL L,SAKER L,et al.Reliability modelling-PETROBRAS 2010 integrated gas supply chain[C]//2010 8th International Pipeline Conference.Calgary,Canada,American Society of Mechanical Engineers,2010:497-505.
[34]FAERTES D.Reliability of supply chains and business continuity management[J].Procedia Computer Science,2015,55:1400-1409.
[35]FAN M W,GONG J,WU Y,et al.The gas supply reliability analysis of natural gas pipeline network based on simplified topological structure[J].Journal of Renewable&Sustainable Energy,2017,9(4):045503.
[36]范慕炜.陕京天然气管网系统可靠度计算方法研究.[D].北京:中国石油大学(北京),2017.[FAN M W.Study on reliability calculation of Shan-Jing natural gas pipeline network system[D].Beijing:China University of Petroleum(Beijing),2017.]
[37]RIMKEVICIUS S,KALIATKA A,VALINCIUS M,et al.Development of approach for reliability assessment of pipeline network systems[J].Applied Energy,2012,94(6):22-33.
[38]SU H,ZHANG J,ZIO E,et al.An integrated systemic method for supply reliability assessment of natural gas pipeline networks[J].Applied Energy,2018,209:489-501.
[39]CHAUDRY M,WU J,JENKINS N.A sequential Monte Carlo model of the combined GB gas and electricity network[J].Energy Policy,2013,62:473-483.
[40]YU W,SONG S,LI Y,et al.Gas supply reliability assessment of natural gas transmission pipeline systems[J].Energy,2018,162:853-870.
[41]YU W,WEN K,LI Y,et al.A methodology to assess the gas supply capacity and gas supply reliability of a natural gas pipeline network system[C]//2018 12th International Pipeline Conference,Calgary,Canada,American Society of Mechanical Engineers,2018:V002T07A006-V002T07A009.