基于证据理论的产品包装方案综合成本测度
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摘要
目的研究不确定信息背景下产品包装方案的综合成本测度,实现产品包装方案的优选。方法对产品包装方案综合成本测度指标体系进行层次化建模;采用隶属度的方法对测度指标的初始评分值进行规范化处理,引入权重来实现对各测度指标重要程度的区分;将备选包装方案视为辨识框架中的焦元,计算各测度指标下所有焦元的加权基本概率分配值,并进行两阶的Dempster合成,最后基于信任区间进行备选包装方案综合成本的测度。结果通过某小型电气控制柜包装方案综合成本测度的案例应用,识别出最优的包装方案,验证了所提出方法的有效性和可行性。结论所提出方法能够为专家评分含有不确定信息时的产品包装方案综合成本测度提供了一种解决思路。
The work aims to study the comprehensive cost measurement of product packaging alternative in the uncertain information environment and realize the optimization of product packaging alternative. The hierarchical model of the comprehensive cost measurement index system was established, and the membership degree method was applied to standardize the initial score value of measurement index. The weight was introduced to distinguish the importance of each measurement index. The packaging alternatives were considered as the focal elements in the identification framework, and the weighted basic probability assignment value of all focal elements under each measurement index was calculated for the two-order Dempster combination. Finally, the comprehensive cost of the packaging alternatives was measured based on the confidence interval. A case study of the comprehensive cost measurement of packaging alternatives of a small electrical cabinet was carried out and the optimal packaging alternative was identified, so that the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method were verified. The proposed method can provide a solution to the comprehensive cost measurement of product packaging alternatives with uncertain information on the expert scores.
The work aims to study the comprehensive cost measurement of product packaging alternative in the uncertain information environment and realize the optimization of product packaging alternative. The hierarchical model of the comprehensive cost measurement index system was established, and the membership degree method was applied to standardize the initial score value of measurement index. The weight was introduced to distinguish the importance of each measurement index. The packaging alternatives were considered as the focal elements in the identification framework, and the weighted basic probability assignment value of all focal elements under each measurement index was calculated for the two-order Dempster combination. Finally, the comprehensive cost of the packaging alternatives was measured based on the confidence interval. A case study of the comprehensive cost measurement of packaging alternatives of a small electrical cabinet was carried out and the optimal packaging alternative was identified, so that the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method were verified. The proposed method can provide a solution to the comprehensive cost measurement of product packaging alternatives with uncertain information on the expert scores.
引文
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[15]鞠彦兵,冯允成,姚李刚.基于证据理论的软件开发风险评估方法[J].系统管理学报,2003,12(3):218—223.JU Yan-bing,FENG Yun-cheng,YAO Li-gang.Research on the Measure of Risk in the Course of Software Development[J].Systems Engineering-theory Methodology Application,2003,12(3):218—223.
[16]郑霞忠,石法起,陈述,等.基于D-S证据理论的地下洞室作业人员安全行为评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(6):158—162.ZHENG Xia-zhong,SHI Fa-qi,CHEN Shu,et al.Evaluation on Safety Behavior of Workers in Underground Cavern Based on D-S Evidence Theory[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2016,12(6):158—162.
[17]YU J,HU M,WANG P.Evaluation and Reliability Analysis of Network Security Risk Factors Based on D-S Evidence Theory[J].Journal of Intelligent&Fuzzy Systems,2018,34(2):861—869.
[18]YAN J,XIE Z,CHEN K,et al.Air Traffic Management System Safety Evaluation Based on Grey Evidence Theory[J].Journal of Grey System,2015,27(3):23—38.
[19]戴宏民,戴佩华.产品整体包装解决方案策划(设计)的目标、原则及方法[J].重庆工商大学学报(自然科学版),2010,27(1):80—84.DAI Hong-min,DAI Pei-hua.Objective,Principle and Methods for Holistic Product Package Solution Plan Design[J].Journal of Chongqing Technology&Business University,2010,27(1):80—84.
[20]GONG B,HUA Z.The Evidential Reasoning Approach for Multi-attribute Decision Making Problem with Incomplete Decision Matrix[C]//International Conference on Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery,IEEE Computer Society,2007:416—421.
[21]LIU F,ZHANG W G.TOPSIS-based Consensus Model for Group Decision-making with Incomplete Interval Fuzzy Preference Relations[J].IEEE Trans Cybern,2017,44(8):1283—1294.
[2]王世君,王世民.快递包装标准化成本收益分析[J].重庆工商大学学报(自然科学版),2015,32(9):93—97.WANG Shi-jun,WANG Shi-min.Analysis of the Express Packaging Standardization Cost-income[J].Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University:Natural Science Edition,2015,32(9):93—97.
[3]巩桂芬,兰明,殷科.包装总成本综合评价AHP模型研究[J].包装工程,2013,34(3):100—103.GONG Gui-fen,LAN Ming,YIN Ke.Research on Comprehensive Evaluation AHP Model of Total Packaging Cost[J].Packaging Engineering,2013,34(3):100—103.
[4]汪春晖,朱霞,马武彪.作业成本法在包装成本管理中的应用[J].后勤工程学院学报,2007,23(1):112—113.WANG Chun-hui,ZHU Xia,MA Wu-biao.Application of ABC to Package Cost Management[J].Journal of Logistical Engineering University,2007,23(1):112—113.
[5]宫运启.基于实例推理的产品包装成本估算研究[J].包装工程,2012,33(15):64—67.GONG Yun-qi.Research on Packaging Cost Estimation of Product Based on CBR[J].Packaging Engineering,2012,33(15):64—67.
[6]郭彦峰,王宏涛,付云岗,等.缓冲包装件整体性能与成本评价系统的研究[J].包装工程,2007,28(11):78—80.GUO Yan-feng,WANG Hong-tao,FU Yun-gang,et al.Research on Unitary Performance and Cost Evaluation System of Cushioned Package[J].Packaging Engineering,2007,28(11):78—80.
[7]张英俊,马培军,苏小红,等.属性权重不确定条件下的区间直觉模糊多属性决策[J].自动化学报,2012,38(2):220—228.ZHANG Ying-jun,MA Pei-jun,SU Xiao-hong,et al.Multi-attribute Decision Making with Uncertain Attribute Weight Information in the Framework of Interval-valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set[J].Acta Automatica Sinica,2012,38(2):220—228.
[8]李联辉,莫蓉,常智勇,等.基于平衡权重和改进TOPSIS的航空发动机装配任务优先度评价方法[J].计算机集成制造系统,2015,21(5):1193—1201.LI Lian-hui,MO Rong,CHANG Zhi-yong,et al.Priority Evaluation Method for Aero-engine Assembly Task Based on Balanced Weight and Improved TOPSIS[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2015,21(5):1193—1201.
[9]李玉鹏,连晓振,卢成,等.基于混合模糊多属性决策的复杂产品模块划分方案评价[J].上海交通大学学报,2017,51(11):1374—1382.LI Yu-peng,LIAN Xiao-zhen,LU Cheng,et al.Evaluation Approach to Rank Module Partition Schemes of Complex Products Based on Hybrid Fuzzy Multi-attribute Decision Making[J].Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University,2017,51(11):1374—1382.
[10]DEMPSTER A P.Upper and Lower Probabilities Induced by a Multi-valued Mapping[J].Annals of Mathematical Statistics,1967,38(2):325—339.
[11]DEMPSTER A P.A Generalization of Bayesian Inference[J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,1968,30(2):205—247.
[12]SHAFER G.A Mathematical Theory of Evidence[M].Princeton:Princeton University Press,1976.
[13]孙越林,包磊.基于D-S证据理论的海战场目标战术意图识别技术研究[J].舰船电子工程,2012,32(5):48—51.SUN Yue-lin,BAO Lei.Study on Recognition Technique of Targets'Tactical Intentions in Sea Battlefield Based on D-S Evidence Theory[J].Ship Electronic Engineering,2012,32(5):48—51.
[14]李珂,杨杨,邱雪松.城市汽车导航中一种改进的D-S证据理论地图匹配算法[J].测绘学报,2014(2):208—213.LI Ke,YANG Yang,QIU Xue-song.An Improved Map Matching Algorithm Based on D-S Evidence Theory in City Vehicle Navigation[J].Acta Geodaetica Et Cartographica Sinica,2014(2):208—213.
[15]鞠彦兵,冯允成,姚李刚.基于证据理论的软件开发风险评估方法[J].系统管理学报,2003,12(3):218—223.JU Yan-bing,FENG Yun-cheng,YAO Li-gang.Research on the Measure of Risk in the Course of Software Development[J].Systems Engineering-theory Methodology Application,2003,12(3):218—223.
[16]郑霞忠,石法起,陈述,等.基于D-S证据理论的地下洞室作业人员安全行为评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(6):158—162.ZHENG Xia-zhong,SHI Fa-qi,CHEN Shu,et al.Evaluation on Safety Behavior of Workers in Underground Cavern Based on D-S Evidence Theory[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2016,12(6):158—162.
[17]YU J,HU M,WANG P.Evaluation and Reliability Analysis of Network Security Risk Factors Based on D-S Evidence Theory[J].Journal of Intelligent&Fuzzy Systems,2018,34(2):861—869.
[18]YAN J,XIE Z,CHEN K,et al.Air Traffic Management System Safety Evaluation Based on Grey Evidence Theory[J].Journal of Grey System,2015,27(3):23—38.
[19]戴宏民,戴佩华.产品整体包装解决方案策划(设计)的目标、原则及方法[J].重庆工商大学学报(自然科学版),2010,27(1):80—84.DAI Hong-min,DAI Pei-hua.Objective,Principle and Methods for Holistic Product Package Solution Plan Design[J].Journal of Chongqing Technology&Business University,2010,27(1):80—84.
[20]GONG B,HUA Z.The Evidential Reasoning Approach for Multi-attribute Decision Making Problem with Incomplete Decision Matrix[C]//International Conference on Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery,IEEE Computer Society,2007:416—421.
[21]LIU F,ZHANG W G.TOPSIS-based Consensus Model for Group Decision-making with Incomplete Interval Fuzzy Preference Relations[J].IEEE Trans Cybern,2017,44(8):1283—1294.