中国九大城市群综合承载力的空间非均衡及其动态演进
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摘要
选取2006—2015年中国九大城市群的面板数据,借助Dagum基尼系数、Kernal核密度估计和Markov链对九大城市群综合承载力的区域差距及其分布动态演进进行实证分析,结果表明:中国九大城市群综合承载力的总体差距呈下降趋势。珠三角城市群内部差距最大,中原城市群内部差距最小。城市群间差距最大的是珠三角和关中城市群,城市群之间差距是造成九大城市群总体差距的主要原因;城市群内存在一些综合承载力高的城市发展更快、承载力低的城市发展较慢的现象,大部分城市群内部综合承载力存在两极和多极分化现象;九大城市群综合承载力的发展类型较为稳定,具有路径依赖性,总体向中等和高水平状态的趋势发展。
In this paper,we draw on the panel data from nine Chinese megalopolises during 2006 to2015,and estimates comprehensive carrying capacity regional difference of nine Chinese megalopolises and dynamic evolution by means of Dagum's Gini coefficient,Kernel density estimation and Markov chains.The results show that a downward trend for the regional disparity of nine Chinese megalopolises.The inner difference of the pearl river delta megalopolis is the largest,and the Central Henan megalopolis difference is the smallest.The gap between Harbin-Changchun megalopolis and the middle reaches of the Yangtze river is the smallest.Differences between megalopolises are the main reasons for the overall imbalance among nine Chinese megalopolises.The Kernel density estimation indicates that there are some cities with a high lever comprehensive carrying capacity in megalopolis,and the slow development of cities with low carrying capacity.In most megalopolises,there are polarities and polarities phenomenon.According to the analysis of Markov chain,the development type of the comprehensive carrying capacity of the nine major megalopolises is stable and has the path dependence,and the steady state is the medium level and the high level.
In this paper,we draw on the panel data from nine Chinese megalopolises during 2006 to2015,and estimates comprehensive carrying capacity regional difference of nine Chinese megalopolises and dynamic evolution by means of Dagum's Gini coefficient,Kernel density estimation and Markov chains.The results show that a downward trend for the regional disparity of nine Chinese megalopolises.The inner difference of the pearl river delta megalopolis is the largest,and the Central Henan megalopolis difference is the smallest.The gap between Harbin-Changchun megalopolis and the middle reaches of the Yangtze river is the smallest.Differences between megalopolises are the main reasons for the overall imbalance among nine Chinese megalopolises.The Kernel density estimation indicates that there are some cities with a high lever comprehensive carrying capacity in megalopolis,and the slow development of cities with low carrying capacity.In most megalopolises,there are polarities and polarities phenomenon.According to the analysis of Markov chain,the development type of the comprehensive carrying capacity of the nine major megalopolises is stable and has the path dependence,and the steady state is the medium level and the high level.
引文
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[14]Dagum C.A New Approach to the Decomposition of the Gini Income Inequality Ratio[J].Empirical Economics,1997,22(4).
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[17]张跃胜.基于区域分工与合作的生态补偿机制设计[J].河南师范大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2016,43(3).
[18]方来.产业结构与区域经济增长互动关系研究——基于我国四大经济区域面板数据的实证分析[J].哈尔滨商业大学学报:社会科学版,2016(4).
(1)限于篇幅,此处结果省略。
[2]毛汉英,余丹林.环渤海地区区域承载力研究[J].地理学报,2001(3).
[3] Joardar Souro D.Carrying Capacities and Standards as Bases towards Urban Infrastructure Planning in India:A Case of Urban Water Supply and Sanitation[J].Habitat International,1998,22(3).
[4] Onishi T.A Capacity Approach for Sustainable Urban Development:An Empirical Study[J].Regional Studies,1994,28(1).
[5] Wei Yigang,Cui Huang,Lam Patrick T I,et al.Sustainable Urban Development:A Review on Urban Carrying Capacity Assessment[J].Habitat International,2015,46.
[6]石忆邵,尹昌应,王贺封,等.城市综合承载力的研究进展及展望[J].地理研究,2013(1).
[7] Oh K.Visual Threshold Carrying Capacity in Urban Landscape Management:A Case Study of Seoul,Korea[J].Landscape Urban Planning,1998,39(4).
[8]孙莉,吕斌,胡军.中原城市群城市承载力评价研究[J].地域研究与开发,2008(3).
[9]曾鹏,王云琪,张晓君.中国十大城市群综合承载力比较研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2015(1).
[10]林寿富,苏也夫.城市群生态经济系统的协同进化关系、阶段及模式[J].西安财经学院学报,2017(2).
[11]程广斌,申立敬,龙文.丝绸之路经济带背景下西北城市群综合承载力比较[J].经济地理,2015(8).
[12]Sun Chuanwang,Chen Litai,Tian Yuan.Study on the Urban State Carrying Capacity for Unbalanced Sustainable Development Regions:Evidence from the Yangtze River Economic Belt[J].Ecological Indicators,2018,89(2).
[13]付德申,向丽.城市群产业承接能力与生态环境耦合协调发展研究[J].商业研究,2017(2).
[14]Dagum C.A New Approach to the Decomposition of the Gini Income Inequality Ratio[J].Empirical Economics,1997,22(4).
[15]Quah.Galton’s Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis[J].The Scandinavian Journal of Economics,1993,95(4).
[16]蒲英霞,马荣华,葛莹,等.基于空间马尔可夫链的江苏区域趋同时空演变[J].地理学报,2005(5).
[17]张跃胜.基于区域分工与合作的生态补偿机制设计[J].河南师范大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2016,43(3).
[18]方来.产业结构与区域经济增长互动关系研究——基于我国四大经济区域面板数据的实证分析[J].哈尔滨商业大学学报:社会科学版,2016(4).
(1)限于篇幅,此处结果省略。