内蒙古城市综合承载力测度及时空演变研究
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摘要
以内蒙古全区和12个盟市为研究对象,运用综合指数评价模型和PSR模型测度了城市综合承载力水平和城市综合承载力质量。研究结果表明:(1)内蒙古在15年间城市综合承载力总体呈现"U"状,承载状态大致可分为三个阶段;12个盟市中大部分盟市的大多数年份的得分处于0.4—0.8之间,即他们的承载力状态属于承载力较弱或者刚好达到临界可载状态;(2)内蒙古全区和各盟市的承载力结构在不断变化,但是结构演进均呈现出不断优化的趋势,正在并将走向可持续发展的方向。因此,内蒙古的发展要综合考虑到城市各要素的承载能力,如何在降低系统压力的同时提升系统响应力,即如何维持经济社会的发展与自然的协调和平衡,是内蒙古未来发展的重要突破点。
This paper takes Inner Mongolia and 12 cities as the research objects, and uses the comprehensive index evaluation model and PSR model to measure the urban comprehensive carrying level and carrying quality. The results show that:(1) The urban comprehensive carrying capacity of Inner Mongolia has a "U" shape in 15 years, and the bearing state can be divided into three stages; In most of the 12 cities, the scores of most of the year are 0.4-0.8. In other words, the bearing state belongs to the weaker bearing capacity or just to the critical load state.(2)The carrying capacity structure of Inner Mongolia and the cities has been constantly changing, but the structural evolution are showing a continuous trend of optimization and will move towards the direction of sustainable development. Therefore, the development of Inner Mongolia should take into account the carrying capacity of various elements of the city. I think that how to reduce the system pressure while enhancing the system response is important. That is to say how to maintain economic development and natural balance is an important breakthrough in the future development of Inner Mongolia.
This paper takes Inner Mongolia and 12 cities as the research objects, and uses the comprehensive index evaluation model and PSR model to measure the urban comprehensive carrying level and carrying quality. The results show that:(1) The urban comprehensive carrying capacity of Inner Mongolia has a "U" shape in 15 years, and the bearing state can be divided into three stages; In most of the 12 cities, the scores of most of the year are 0.4-0.8. In other words, the bearing state belongs to the weaker bearing capacity or just to the critical load state.(2)The carrying capacity structure of Inner Mongolia and the cities has been constantly changing, but the structural evolution are showing a continuous trend of optimization and will move towards the direction of sustainable development. Therefore, the development of Inner Mongolia should take into account the carrying capacity of various elements of the city. I think that how to reduce the system pressure while enhancing the system response is important. That is to say how to maintain economic development and natural balance is an important breakthrough in the future development of Inner Mongolia.
引文
[1]高红丽,涂建军,杨乐.城市综合承载力评价研究——以成渝经济区为例[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版), 2010(10):48-49.
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[6]张小富,张协奎.广西北部湾经济区城市群城市综合承载力评价研究[J].国土与自然资源研究,2011(2):11-13.
[7]付金存,李豫新,王菲.PSR框架下新疆城市承载力状态时空动态演化研究[J].区域经济评论,2014:144-150.
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[11]张晓光.大连市城市综合承载力评估[J].科技创新与应用,2014(34):134-135.
[12]满向昱,左静,龚磊.我国各省市综合承载力评价[J].新疆财经大学报,2014(1):12-18.
[13]姜豪,陈灿平.城市综合承载力研究——以成都为例[J].软科学,2016,30(12):59-62.
[14]曹飞,郑庆玲.中国省域城市承载力测度及提升对策[J].技术经济,2016,35(9):99-105.
[15]李文龙,任圆.城市综合承载力系统动力学仿真模型研究[J].生态经济,2017,33(2):78-80.
[16]狄乾斌,韩帅帅.城市经济承载力的综合评价及其时空差异研究——以我国15个副省级城市为例[J].经济地理,2015,35(9):5-64
[2]叶裕民.解读“城市综合承载能力”[J].前线,2007(4):27-28.
[3]李东序,赵富强.城市综合承载力结构模型与耦合机制研究[J].城市发展研究,2008(6):37-42.
[4]孔凡文,刘亚臣和常春光.城市综合承载力的内涵及测算思路[J].城市问题,2012(1):26-28.
[5]吕斌,孙莉和谭文垦.中原城市群城市承载力评价研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(5):53-58.
[6]张小富,张协奎.广西北部湾经济区城市群城市综合承载力评价研究[J].国土与自然资源研究,2011(2):11-13.
[7]付金存,李豫新,王菲.PSR框架下新疆城市承载力状态时空动态演化研究[J].区域经济评论,2014:144-150.
[8]刘惠敏.长江三角洲城市群综合承载力的时空分异研究[J].中国软科学,2011(10):114-122
[9]冯煜雯.西安城市承载力综合评价分析[J].西安财经学报,2012,25(5):47-50.
[10]阎东彬.京津冀一体化进程中重点城市综合承载力研究[J].国家行政学院学报,2015:68-72.
[11]张晓光.大连市城市综合承载力评估[J].科技创新与应用,2014(34):134-135.
[12]满向昱,左静,龚磊.我国各省市综合承载力评价[J].新疆财经大学报,2014(1):12-18.
[13]姜豪,陈灿平.城市综合承载力研究——以成都为例[J].软科学,2016,30(12):59-62.
[14]曹飞,郑庆玲.中国省域城市承载力测度及提升对策[J].技术经济,2016,35(9):99-105.
[15]李文龙,任圆.城市综合承载力系统动力学仿真模型研究[J].生态经济,2017,33(2):78-80.
[16]狄乾斌,韩帅帅.城市经济承载力的综合评价及其时空差异研究——以我国15个副省级城市为例[J].经济地理,2015,35(9):5-64