2018年中国大麦进口形势及2019年展望
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摘要
随着国内玉米"去库存"政策的持续实施,以及受中国对澳大利亚进口大麦进行反倾销和反补贴立案调查的影响, 2018年,中国大麦进口量同比大幅下降,月度进口量波动明显;进口市场集中度较高,第一大进口来源国仍然是澳大利亚。在国际大麦价格整体上涨的影响下, 2018年中国大麦国内价格明显上涨,且高于国际价格,国内外大麦价差明显。在综合考虑国内外大麦供求形势、价格走势、贸易政策的基础上,预计2019年中国大麦进口规模稳中有降。
With the continuous implementation of destocking policy with domestic maize, and the impact of China's anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on Australian barley imports, the import volume of barley fell sharply in China in 2018 compared to 2017, and monthly import volume fluctuated significantly. The import market was relatively concentrated and the largest source of barley import was still Australia. Under the influence of the overall rise in international barley prices, the price of China's barley in 2018 increased significantly and was higher than international barley prices with obvious price gap between domestic and foreign barley. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the supply and demand, price trends, trade policy at home and abroad, the authors predicted that China's barley imports would stabilize with slight decline in 2019.
With the continuous implementation of destocking policy with domestic maize, and the impact of China's anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on Australian barley imports, the import volume of barley fell sharply in China in 2018 compared to 2017, and monthly import volume fluctuated significantly. The import market was relatively concentrated and the largest source of barley import was still Australia. Under the influence of the overall rise in international barley prices, the price of China's barley in 2018 increased significantly and was higher than international barley prices with obvious price gap between domestic and foreign barley. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the supply and demand, price trends, trade policy at home and abroad, the authors predicted that China's barley imports would stabilize with slight decline in 2019.
引文
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[9]贾小玲,孙致陆,李先德.我国大麦价格波动特征及其影响因素分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2018(1):23-30.
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[11]佚名.未来我国高粱和饲料大麦进口量将下降30%~50%[J].新疆畜牧业,2016(3):14.
[2]谭琳元,李先德.中国大麦供给安全战略研究——中国大麦进口依赖风险及应对策略[J].价格理论与实践,2018(11):71-74.
[3]李先德,孙致陆,张京.2013年世界与我国大麦产业发展形势及2014年展望[J].中国食物与营养,2014(5):21-23.
[4]张琳,李先德,孙东升.中国大麦供需平衡及趋势分析[J].中国农业科技导报,2014(4):16-22.
[5]李京栋,李先德,孙致陆.贸易开放下大麦进口价格对中国啤酒进出口的影响——基于空间面板模型的实证研究[J].农业现代化研究,2018,39(3):414-423.
[6]谭琳元,李先德.进口对中国大麦产业发展的影响[J].农业展望,2018(12):60-64,69.
[7]国家大麦青稞产业技术体系.中国现代农业产业可持续发展战略研究——大麦青稞分册[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2016.
[8]贾娟琪,李先德,孙致陆.2016年中国大麦进口形势及2017年展望[J].农业展望,2017(5):81-85.
[9]贾小玲,孙致陆,李先德.我国大麦价格波动特征及其影响因素分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2018(1):23-30.
[10]中国海关总署.2019年自动进口许可管理货物目录[EB/OL].(2018-12-10])[2019-05-04].http://www.customs.gov.cn/customs/302249/302266/302267/2292886/index.html.
[11]佚名.未来我国高粱和饲料大麦进口量将下降30%~50%[J].新疆畜牧业,2016(3):14.