浒苔绿潮灾害经济损失评估模型初探
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摘要
浒苔绿潮灾害已在我国黄海海域连续暴发10年,对沿岸社会经济和生态环境造成了极大损失,严重制约了地区经济的可持续发展,但对减灾具有现实意义的绿潮灾害经济损失评估研究还尚属空白,已不能满足浒苔绿潮防灾减灾的实际需求。本文在归纳总结浒苔绿潮灾害致灾机制的基础上,提出了浒苔绿潮灾害的灾害链,其后以业务化应用为出发点和归宿,初步构建了浒苔绿潮灾害经济损失评估指标体系,并探索性的建立养殖业损失、旅游业损失、机会成本损失和生态损失的浒苔绿潮灾害经济损失评估模型,期望促进绿潮灾害损失评估工作尽早实现科学化、标准化和系统化。
Enteromorphaprolifera blooms that continuously taken place in the Yellow Sea for 10 years have caused great destruction to economy and environment of the afflicted coast zones. However,no report is available about economic losses assessment of Enteromorphaprolifera blooms which are unable to meet the actual demands of disaster prevention and mitigation. This paper put forward the disaster chain of Enteromorphaprolifera blooms based on induction and analysis to publish articles of disaster mechanism. Thereafter,regard operational application as the springboard and the final goal,economic losses assessment index system that contained 4 first-level indicators and11 secondary counterparts was initially established. Finally,the specific formulas for economic losses assessment of Enteromorphaprolifera blooms were exploratory proposed,including marine aquaculture economic losses,coastal tourism economic losses,opportunity cost losses and ecological losses. We proposed the economic losses assessment model of Enteromorphaprolifera blooms aims to help the government to cope with the green tides more scientific,normative and effective.
Enteromorphaprolifera blooms that continuously taken place in the Yellow Sea for 10 years have caused great destruction to economy and environment of the afflicted coast zones. However,no report is available about economic losses assessment of Enteromorphaprolifera blooms which are unable to meet the actual demands of disaster prevention and mitigation. This paper put forward the disaster chain of Enteromorphaprolifera blooms based on induction and analysis to publish articles of disaster mechanism. Thereafter,regard operational application as the springboard and the final goal,economic losses assessment index system that contained 4 first-level indicators and11 secondary counterparts was initially established. Finally,the specific formulas for economic losses assessment of Enteromorphaprolifera blooms were exploratory proposed,including marine aquaculture economic losses,coastal tourism economic losses,opportunity cost losses and ecological losses. We proposed the economic losses assessment model of Enteromorphaprolifera blooms aims to help the government to cope with the green tides more scientific,normative and effective.
引文
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[2]Worm B,Lotze H K.Effects of eutrophication,grazing,and algal blooms on rocky shores[J].Limnology and Oceanography,2006,51(1part2):569-579.
[3]唐启升,张晓雯,叶乃好,等.绿潮研究现状与问题[J].中国科学基金,2010(1):5-9.TANG Qisheng,ZHANG Xiaowen,YE Naihao,et al.Review on the research progress on marine green tide[J].Bulletin of National Natural Science Foundation of China,2010(1):5-9.(in Chinese)
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[8]吴玲娟,曹丛华,高松,等.我国绿潮发生发展机理研究进展[J].海洋科学,2013,37(12):120-123.WU Lingjuan,CAO Conghua,GAO Song,et al.A review on the development mechanism of green tide in China[J].Marine Sciences,2013,37(12):120-123.(in Chinese)
[9]于仁成,刘东艳.我国近海藻华灾害现状,演变趋势与应对策略[J].中国科学院院刊,2016,31(10):1167-1174.YU Rencheng,LIU Dongyan.Harmful algal blooms in the coastal waters of China:current situation,long-term changes and prevention strategies[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2016,31(10):1167-1174.(in Chinese)
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[11]Hiraoka M,Ohno M,Kawaguchi S,et al.Crossing test among floating Ulva thalli forming‘green tide’in Japan[M]//Asian Pacific Phycology in the 21st Century:Prospects and Challenges.Springer Netherlands,2004:239-245.
[12]陈泽浦,刘堃.浅析赤潮灾害形成原因,危害与减灾工作[J].中国渔业经济,2010(1):60-65.CHEN Zepu,LIU Kun.Analysis on the red tide disaster’s formation reason,harm and reduction work[J].Chinese Fisheries Economics,2010(1):60-65.(in Chinese)
[13]Sundback K,Jonsson B,Nilsson P,et al.Impact of accumulating drifting macroalgae on a shallow-water sediment system:an experimental study[J].Marine Ecology Progress Series MESEDT,1990,58(3).
[14]Suikkanen S,Fistarol G O,Granéli E.Allelopathic effects of the baltic cyanobacteria nodulariaspumdigena,aphanizomenonflos-aquae and anabaena lemmermannii on algal monocultures[J].Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology,2004,308(1):85-101.
[15]Renjun W,You W,Jing Z,et al.Algicidal activity of ulva pertusa and ulva prolifera on prorocentrumdonghaiense under laboratory conditions[J].African Journal of Microbiology Research,2013,7(34):4389-4396.
[16]刘青.黄海绿潮浒苔与浮游植物间的相互作用研究[D].中国科学院研究生院(海洋研究所),2015.LIU Qing.The interactions study between bloom-forming Ulva Prolifera and Phytoplankton in the Yellow Sea[D].The University of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Institute of Oceanology),2015.(in Chinese)
[17]高振会,杨建强,张洪亮,等.绿潮灾害发生条件与防控技术[M].北京:海洋出版社,2009.GAO Zhenhui,YANG Jianqiang,ZHANG Hongliang,et al.Occurrence Condition and Prevention Techniques of Green Tide Disaster[M].Beijing:Ocean Press,2009.(in Chinese)
[18]Wang C,Yu R,Zhou M.Acute toxicity of live and decomposing green alga Ulva(Enteromorpha)prolifera to abalone Haliotis discus Hannai[J].Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2011,29(3):541-546.
[19]Ye N,Zhang X,Mao Y,et al.‘Green tides’are overwhelming the coastline of our blue planet:taking the world’s largest example[J].Ecological Research,2011,26(3):477.
[20]Norkko A,Bonsdorff E.Population responses of coastal zoobenthos to stress induced by drifting algal mats[J].Marine Ecology Progress Series,1996(140):141-151.
[21]吴秀芹,徐奎栋,于子山,等.2008年浒苔大暴发末期黄海小型底栖动物现存量及空间分布[J].应用生态学报,2010,21(8):2140-2147.WU Xiuqin,XU Kuidong,YU Zishan,et al.Standing crop and spatial distribution of Meiofauna in yellow sea at late stage of Enteromorphaprolifera bloom in 2008[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2010,21(8):2140-2147.(in Chinese)
[22]任鲁川.灾害损失定量评估的模糊综合评判方法[J].灾害学,1996,11(4):5-10.REN Luchuan.The method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation applied in quantitative assessment of disaster losses[J].Journal of Catastrophology,1996,11(4):5-10.(in Chinese)
[23]赵阿兴,马宗晋.自然灾害损失评估指标体系的研究[J].自然灾害学报,1993,2(3):1-7.ZHAO Axing,MA Zongjin.Appraising study for the loss evaluation system of natural disasters[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1993,2(3):1-7.(in Chinese)
[24]殷克东,韦茜,李兴东.风暴潮灾害社会经济损失评估研究[J].海洋环境科学,2012,31(6):835-842.YIN Kedong,WEI Qian,LI Xingdong.The evaluation techniques of the socio-economic loss caused by storm surge disaster[J].Marine Environmental Science,2012,31(6):835-842.(in Chinese)
[25]宋宁而,王琪.从国外浒苔治理经验看海洋环境应急管理中社会组织的重要性[J].海洋开发与管理,2010,27(9):33-40.SONG Ninger,WANG Qi.The importance of social organization in emergency management from the experience of foreign country governanceon enteromorpha[J].Ocean Development and Management,2010,27(9):33-40.(in Chinese)
[26]孙云潭.中国海洋灾害应急管理研究[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2010.SUN Yuntan.Study on emergency management of marine disaster in China[D].Qingdao:Ocean University of China,2010.(in Chinese)
[27]赵阿兴.灾害损失阈值的定义及其意义与应用研究[J].自然灾害学报,2014,23(6):13-18.ZHAO Axing.Definition,significance and application of calamity damage threshold value[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2014,23(6):13-18.(in Chinese)
[2]Worm B,Lotze H K.Effects of eutrophication,grazing,and algal blooms on rocky shores[J].Limnology and Oceanography,2006,51(1part2):569-579.
[3]唐启升,张晓雯,叶乃好,等.绿潮研究现状与问题[J].中国科学基金,2010(1):5-9.TANG Qisheng,ZHANG Xiaowen,YE Naihao,et al.Review on the research progress on marine green tide[J].Bulletin of National Natural Science Foundation of China,2010(1):5-9.(in Chinese)
[4]张惠荣.浒苔生态学研究[M].北京:海洋出版社,2009.ZHANG Huirong.Ecological study of Enteromorpha[M].Beijing:Ocean Press,2009.(in Chinese)
[5]叶乃好,刘云国.李兆杰.浒苔[M].北京:海洋出版社,2012.YE Naihao,LIU Yunguo,LI Zhaojie.Enteromorpha[M].Beijing:Ocean Press,2012.(in Chinese)
[6]宋伦,毕相东.渤海海洋生态灾害及应急处置[M].沈阳:辽宁科学技术出版社,2015.SONG Lun,BI Xiangdong.Marine Ecological Disasters and Emergency Disposal in the Bohai Sea[M].Shenyang:Liaoning Science and Technology Publish House,2015.(in Chinese)
[7]刘英霞,常显波,王桂云,等.浒苔的危害及防治[J].安徽农业科学,2009,37(20):9566-9567.LIU Yingxia,CHANG Xianbo,WANG Guiyun,et al.Harm and prevention of entermorphaprolifera[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2009,37(20):9566-9567.(in Chinese)
[8]吴玲娟,曹丛华,高松,等.我国绿潮发生发展机理研究进展[J].海洋科学,2013,37(12):120-123.WU Lingjuan,CAO Conghua,GAO Song,et al.A review on the development mechanism of green tide in China[J].Marine Sciences,2013,37(12):120-123.(in Chinese)
[9]于仁成,刘东艳.我国近海藻华灾害现状,演变趋势与应对策略[J].中国科学院院刊,2016,31(10):1167-1174.YU Rencheng,LIU Dongyan.Harmful algal blooms in the coastal waters of China:current situation,long-term changes and prevention strategies[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2016,31(10):1167-1174.(in Chinese)
[10]Charlier R H,Morand P,Finkl C W,et al.Green tides on the Brittany coasts[C]//2006 IEEE US/EU Baltic International Symposium.IEEE,2006:1-13.
[11]Hiraoka M,Ohno M,Kawaguchi S,et al.Crossing test among floating Ulva thalli forming‘green tide’in Japan[M]//Asian Pacific Phycology in the 21st Century:Prospects and Challenges.Springer Netherlands,2004:239-245.
[12]陈泽浦,刘堃.浅析赤潮灾害形成原因,危害与减灾工作[J].中国渔业经济,2010(1):60-65.CHEN Zepu,LIU Kun.Analysis on the red tide disaster’s formation reason,harm and reduction work[J].Chinese Fisheries Economics,2010(1):60-65.(in Chinese)
[13]Sundback K,Jonsson B,Nilsson P,et al.Impact of accumulating drifting macroalgae on a shallow-water sediment system:an experimental study[J].Marine Ecology Progress Series MESEDT,1990,58(3).
[14]Suikkanen S,Fistarol G O,Granéli E.Allelopathic effects of the baltic cyanobacteria nodulariaspumdigena,aphanizomenonflos-aquae and anabaena lemmermannii on algal monocultures[J].Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology,2004,308(1):85-101.
[15]Renjun W,You W,Jing Z,et al.Algicidal activity of ulva pertusa and ulva prolifera on prorocentrumdonghaiense under laboratory conditions[J].African Journal of Microbiology Research,2013,7(34):4389-4396.
[16]刘青.黄海绿潮浒苔与浮游植物间的相互作用研究[D].中国科学院研究生院(海洋研究所),2015.LIU Qing.The interactions study between bloom-forming Ulva Prolifera and Phytoplankton in the Yellow Sea[D].The University of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Institute of Oceanology),2015.(in Chinese)
[17]高振会,杨建强,张洪亮,等.绿潮灾害发生条件与防控技术[M].北京:海洋出版社,2009.GAO Zhenhui,YANG Jianqiang,ZHANG Hongliang,et al.Occurrence Condition and Prevention Techniques of Green Tide Disaster[M].Beijing:Ocean Press,2009.(in Chinese)
[18]Wang C,Yu R,Zhou M.Acute toxicity of live and decomposing green alga Ulva(Enteromorpha)prolifera to abalone Haliotis discus Hannai[J].Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2011,29(3):541-546.
[19]Ye N,Zhang X,Mao Y,et al.‘Green tides’are overwhelming the coastline of our blue planet:taking the world’s largest example[J].Ecological Research,2011,26(3):477.
[20]Norkko A,Bonsdorff E.Population responses of coastal zoobenthos to stress induced by drifting algal mats[J].Marine Ecology Progress Series,1996(140):141-151.
[21]吴秀芹,徐奎栋,于子山,等.2008年浒苔大暴发末期黄海小型底栖动物现存量及空间分布[J].应用生态学报,2010,21(8):2140-2147.WU Xiuqin,XU Kuidong,YU Zishan,et al.Standing crop and spatial distribution of Meiofauna in yellow sea at late stage of Enteromorphaprolifera bloom in 2008[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2010,21(8):2140-2147.(in Chinese)
[22]任鲁川.灾害损失定量评估的模糊综合评判方法[J].灾害学,1996,11(4):5-10.REN Luchuan.The method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation applied in quantitative assessment of disaster losses[J].Journal of Catastrophology,1996,11(4):5-10.(in Chinese)
[23]赵阿兴,马宗晋.自然灾害损失评估指标体系的研究[J].自然灾害学报,1993,2(3):1-7.ZHAO Axing,MA Zongjin.Appraising study for the loss evaluation system of natural disasters[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1993,2(3):1-7.(in Chinese)
[24]殷克东,韦茜,李兴东.风暴潮灾害社会经济损失评估研究[J].海洋环境科学,2012,31(6):835-842.YIN Kedong,WEI Qian,LI Xingdong.The evaluation techniques of the socio-economic loss caused by storm surge disaster[J].Marine Environmental Science,2012,31(6):835-842.(in Chinese)
[25]宋宁而,王琪.从国外浒苔治理经验看海洋环境应急管理中社会组织的重要性[J].海洋开发与管理,2010,27(9):33-40.SONG Ninger,WANG Qi.The importance of social organization in emergency management from the experience of foreign country governanceon enteromorpha[J].Ocean Development and Management,2010,27(9):33-40.(in Chinese)
[26]孙云潭.中国海洋灾害应急管理研究[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2010.SUN Yuntan.Study on emergency management of marine disaster in China[D].Qingdao:Ocean University of China,2010.(in Chinese)
[27]赵阿兴.灾害损失阈值的定义及其意义与应用研究[J].自然灾害学报,2014,23(6):13-18.ZHAO Axing.Definition,significance and application of calamity damage threshold value[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2014,23(6):13-18.(in Chinese)