考虑可再生能源配额制的中国电力市场均衡模型
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摘要
考虑现行电力市场政策下可再生能源所占比重,分析了可再生能源固定电价制和配额制下各厂商经济决策及总效益,提出了一套基于固定电价制与配额制并行的电力市场均衡模型,既切合国情需要,又符合电力市场的运行规律。该模型满足可再生能源深化发展的同时,从经济学角度也实现了卡尔多—希克斯改进。该模型不仅能提升绿色电力强制配额上网环境下的总效益,而且能平衡利润和电价波动所带来的风险。最后,基于多智能体粒子群优化算法对两种制度在三种场景下的电力市场均衡模型进行仿真计算,实验结果验证了模型的有效性和时效性。
Considering the proportion of renewable energy under the current electricity market policy,the economic decisionmaking and social benefits of various manufacturers are analyzed under the feed-in tariff(FIT)system and renewable portfolio standard(RPS).Based on the FIT system and RPS in parallel,a set of electricity market equilibrium model is put forward for both national needs and the operation of the electricity market law.The model meets the needs of the sustainable development of renewable energy and also realizes Kaldor Hicks improvement from an economic point of view.This model not only improves the social benefits of green electricity quota in grid-connected environment,but also balances the risks brought by the fluctuation of electricity price.Finally,based on the multi-agent particle swarm optimization(MAPSO)algorithm,the simulation calculation of electricity market equilibrium model of two systems in three scenarios is completed,the results of which verify the effectiveness and timeliness of the model.
Considering the proportion of renewable energy under the current electricity market policy,the economic decisionmaking and social benefits of various manufacturers are analyzed under the feed-in tariff(FIT)system and renewable portfolio standard(RPS).Based on the FIT system and RPS in parallel,a set of electricity market equilibrium model is put forward for both national needs and the operation of the electricity market law.The model meets the needs of the sustainable development of renewable energy and also realizes Kaldor Hicks improvement from an economic point of view.This model not only improves the social benefits of green electricity quota in grid-connected environment,but also balances the risks brought by the fluctuation of electricity price.Finally,based on the multi-agent particle swarm optimization(MAPSO)algorithm,the simulation calculation of electricity market equilibrium model of two systems in three scenarios is completed,the results of which verify the effectiveness and timeliness of the model.
引文
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[17]安学娜,张少华,李雪.考虑绿色证书交易的寡头电力市场均衡分析[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(9):84-89.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20160516008.AN Xuena,ZHANG Shaohua,LI Xue.Equilibrium analysis of oligopolistic electricity markets considering tradable green certificates[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(9):84-89.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20160516008.
[18]ZHOU H Z.TAMAS M M.Impacts of integration of production of black and green energy[J].Energy Economics,2010,32(1):220-226.
[19]徐基光.基于绿色证书交易的含风电系统低碳经济调度[J].中国电力,2016,49(7):145-150.XU Jiguang.Low-carbon economic dispatching for power grid integrated with wind power system based on the green certificate trading mechanism[J].Electric Power,2016,49(7):145-150.
[20]钟宇峰,黄民翔,文福拴,等.计及绿色证书交易机制的大用户直购电市场均衡分析[J].电力自动化设备,2014,34(2):144-150.ZHONG Yufeng,HUANG Minxiang,WEN Fushuan,et al.Multi-objective optimization and decision making of extended black-start scheme considering subsequent restoration influence[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2014,34(2):144-150.
[21]JIN Yao,WANG Zhengyu,JIANG Chuanwen,et al.Dispatch and bidding strategy of active distribution network in energy and ancillary services market[J].Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy,2015,3(4):565-572.
[22]国家能源局.可再生能源电力配额及考核办法(征求意见稿)[EB/OL].(2018-03-23)[2018-05-26].http://zfxxgk.nea.gov.cn/auto87/201803/t20180323_3131.htm.National Energy Administration.Renewable energy quota and assessment method(draft)[EB/OL].(2018-03-23)[2018-05-26].http://zfxxgk.nea.gov.cn/auto87/201803/t20180323_3131.htm.
[23]张晓辉,闫柯柯,卢志刚,等.基于碳交易的含风电系统低碳经济调度[J].电网技术,2013,37(10):2697-2704.ZHANG Xiaohui,YAN Keke,LU Zhigang,et al.Carbon trading based low-carbon economic dispatching for power grid integrated with wind power system[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(10):2697-2704.
[24]禤培正,朱继忠,谢平平.含风电电力系统鲁棒调度保守度的多目标优化方法[J].南方电网技术,2017,11(2):8-15.XUAN Peizheng,ZHU Jizhong,XIE Pingping.Multi-objective optimization method of robust dispatch conservativeness of power system with wind power[J].Southern Power System Technology,2017,11(2):8-15.
[25]赵新刚,冯天天,杨益晟.可再生能源配额制对我国电源结构的影响机理及效果研究[J].电网技术,2014,38(4):974-979.ZHAO Xingang,FENG Tiantian,YANG Yisheng.Impacting mechanism of renewable portfolio standard on China’s power source structure and its effect[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(4):974-979.
[26]郭炜煜,赵新刚,冯霞.固定电价与可再生能源配额制:基于中国电力市场的比较[J].中国科技论坛,2016(9):90-97.GUO Weiyu,ZHAO Xingang,FENG Xia.Comparative analysis of feed-in tariff and renewable portfolio standards:the power market in China[J].China Science and Technology Forum,2016(9):90-97.
[27]肖鲲,黄挚雄.多智能体粒子群算法在配电网络重构中的应用[J].计算机工程与应用,2010,46(8):221-224.XIAO Kun,HUANG Zhixiong.Application of multi-agent particle swarm algorithm in distribution network reconfiguration[J].Computer Engineering and Applications,2010,46(8):221-224.
[28]郝然,艾芊,朱宇超.基于多智能体一致性的能源互联网协同优化控制[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(15):10-17.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170209003.HAO Ran,AI Qian,ZHU Yuchao.Cooperative optimal control of Energy Internet based on multi-agent consistency[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(15):10-17.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170209003.
[2]沙熠,邱晓燕,宁雪姣,等.协调储能与柔性负荷的主动配电网多目标优化调度[J].电网技术,2016,40(5):1394-1399.SHA Yi,QIU Xiaoyan,NING Xuejiao,et al.Multi-objective optimization of active distribution network by coordinating energy storage system and flexible load[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(5):1394-1399.
[3]JIANG Ziqing,AI Qian.Agent-based simulation for symmetric electricity market considering price-based demand response[J].Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy,2017,5(5):810-819.
[4]ZHU J Z.Optimization of power system operation[M].2nd ed.New York:Wiley-IEEE Press,2015.
[5]吉平,武守远,周孝信.含风力发电的市级电网区域可再生能源规划方案确定及重要因素影响研究[J].电网技术,2013,37(2):334-341.JI Ping,WU Shouyuan,ZHOU Xiaoxin.Determination of regional renewable energy planning scheme for urban power grid containing wind farm and its important impacting factors[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(2):334-341.
[6]杨帅.我国可再生能源补贴政策的经济影响与改进方向-以风电为例[J].云南财经大学学报,2013,29(2):64-74.YANG Shuai.The economic impacts and the future development of China’s subsidy policy on renewable energy-based on the analysis of wind-powered electricity generation[J].Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,2013,29(2):64-74.
[7]熊灵,周茂荣.WTO视角下中美可再生能源补贴政策比较分析[J].国际商务研究,2011,32(5):13-23.XIONG Ling,ZHOU Maorong.Comparative analysis of SinoUS subsidies for renewable energy in the perspective of WTO[J].International Business Studies,2011,32(5):13-23.
[8]李虹,谢明华,杜小敏.中国可再生能源补贴措施有效性研究-基于居民环境支付意愿的实证分析[J].财贸经济,2011(3):102-109.LI Hong,XIE Minghua,DU Xiaomin.A study on the effectiveness of China’s renewable energy subsidy measures[J].Financial economy,2011(3):102-109.
[9]李璐,谭忠富,张恩源.可再生能源配额制实施中的市场研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2014,42(12):106-112.LI Lu,TAN Zhongfu,ZHANG Enyuan.Research on market power in the implementation of renewable portfolio standard[J].Power System Protection and Control,2014,42(12):106-112.
[10]ZHU J Z,XU G Y.A new real power economic dispatch method with security[J].Electric Power Systems Research,1992,25(1):9-15.
[11]任东明.中国可再生能源配额制和实施对策探讨[J].电力系统自动化,2011,35(22):25-28.REN Dongming.China’s renewable portfolio standards and implementing countermeasures[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2011,35(22):25-28.
[12]赵文会,高姣倩,于金龙,等.计及碳交易和绿色证书交易机制的发电权交易模型[J].可再生能源,2016,34(8):1129-1137.ZHAO Wenhui,GAO Jiaoqian,YU Jinlong,et al.Generation rights trade model with carbon trading and green certificate trading mechanisms[J].Renewable Energy Resources,2016,34(8):1129-1137.
[13]王博.固定电价收购制度和配额制在推进可再生能源利用方面的比较[J].西安邮电学院学报,2010,15(2):97-101.WANG Bo.Comparison of feed-in tariff and quota mechanism to support renewable energy development[J].Journal of Xi’an University of Posts and Telecommunications,2010,15(2):97-101.
[14]沈运帷,李扬,高赐威,等.需求响应在电力辅助服务市场中的应用[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(22):151-161.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170302007.SHEN Yunwei,LI Yang,GAO Ciwei,et al.Application of demand response in ancillary service market[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(22):151-161.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170302007.
[15]柳进,封嘉爱,王漪.偶对优化潮流及其在电力市场的应用[J].中国电机工程学报,2008,28(4):83-87.LIU Jin,FENG Jiaai,WANG Yi.Coupling pair optimal power flow and its application in electricity market[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2008,28(4):83-87.
[16]季珉杰,张沛超,姚垚,等.采用基于市场控制的微网分布式能量优化方法[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(15):34-41.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20161003004.JI Minjie,ZHANG Peichao,YAO Yao,et al.Distributed energy optimization method for microgrid using market-based control[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(15):34-41.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20161003004.
[17]安学娜,张少华,李雪.考虑绿色证书交易的寡头电力市场均衡分析[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(9):84-89.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20160516008.AN Xuena,ZHANG Shaohua,LI Xue.Equilibrium analysis of oligopolistic electricity markets considering tradable green certificates[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(9):84-89.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20160516008.
[18]ZHOU H Z.TAMAS M M.Impacts of integration of production of black and green energy[J].Energy Economics,2010,32(1):220-226.
[19]徐基光.基于绿色证书交易的含风电系统低碳经济调度[J].中国电力,2016,49(7):145-150.XU Jiguang.Low-carbon economic dispatching for power grid integrated with wind power system based on the green certificate trading mechanism[J].Electric Power,2016,49(7):145-150.
[20]钟宇峰,黄民翔,文福拴,等.计及绿色证书交易机制的大用户直购电市场均衡分析[J].电力自动化设备,2014,34(2):144-150.ZHONG Yufeng,HUANG Minxiang,WEN Fushuan,et al.Multi-objective optimization and decision making of extended black-start scheme considering subsequent restoration influence[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2014,34(2):144-150.
[21]JIN Yao,WANG Zhengyu,JIANG Chuanwen,et al.Dispatch and bidding strategy of active distribution network in energy and ancillary services market[J].Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy,2015,3(4):565-572.
[22]国家能源局.可再生能源电力配额及考核办法(征求意见稿)[EB/OL].(2018-03-23)[2018-05-26].http://zfxxgk.nea.gov.cn/auto87/201803/t20180323_3131.htm.National Energy Administration.Renewable energy quota and assessment method(draft)[EB/OL].(2018-03-23)[2018-05-26].http://zfxxgk.nea.gov.cn/auto87/201803/t20180323_3131.htm.
[23]张晓辉,闫柯柯,卢志刚,等.基于碳交易的含风电系统低碳经济调度[J].电网技术,2013,37(10):2697-2704.ZHANG Xiaohui,YAN Keke,LU Zhigang,et al.Carbon trading based low-carbon economic dispatching for power grid integrated with wind power system[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(10):2697-2704.
[24]禤培正,朱继忠,谢平平.含风电电力系统鲁棒调度保守度的多目标优化方法[J].南方电网技术,2017,11(2):8-15.XUAN Peizheng,ZHU Jizhong,XIE Pingping.Multi-objective optimization method of robust dispatch conservativeness of power system with wind power[J].Southern Power System Technology,2017,11(2):8-15.
[25]赵新刚,冯天天,杨益晟.可再生能源配额制对我国电源结构的影响机理及效果研究[J].电网技术,2014,38(4):974-979.ZHAO Xingang,FENG Tiantian,YANG Yisheng.Impacting mechanism of renewable portfolio standard on China’s power source structure and its effect[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(4):974-979.
[26]郭炜煜,赵新刚,冯霞.固定电价与可再生能源配额制:基于中国电力市场的比较[J].中国科技论坛,2016(9):90-97.GUO Weiyu,ZHAO Xingang,FENG Xia.Comparative analysis of feed-in tariff and renewable portfolio standards:the power market in China[J].China Science and Technology Forum,2016(9):90-97.
[27]肖鲲,黄挚雄.多智能体粒子群算法在配电网络重构中的应用[J].计算机工程与应用,2010,46(8):221-224.XIAO Kun,HUANG Zhixiong.Application of multi-agent particle swarm algorithm in distribution network reconfiguration[J].Computer Engineering and Applications,2010,46(8):221-224.
[28]郝然,艾芊,朱宇超.基于多智能体一致性的能源互联网协同优化控制[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(15):10-17.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170209003.HAO Ran,AI Qian,ZHU Yuchao.Cooperative optimal control of Energy Internet based on multi-agent consistency[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(15):10-17.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170209003.