西部大开发提高了西部地区的碳排放绿色贡献度吗?——基于双倍差分法的经验分析
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摘要
笔者利用中国30个省份1995年~2011年碳排放面板数据,运用双倍差分法考察了西部大开发政策对我国东中西部地区间碳排放绿色贡献度的影响效应及作用机理。结果表明:西部大开发政策显著提高了我国西部地区的碳排放绿色贡献度(CGCC),即碳的生产效率。进一步估算各变量的双倍差分估计量,发现:该政策主要通过提高西部地区市场化水平、增加就业机会和就业环境、发展对外贸易等途径降低碳排放量,提高西部地区碳的生产效率;在该政策实施期间,虽然人们工资水平和受教育程度得到提升,但地区碳生产效率却降低了,这可能与"由俭入奢"式高碳消费观念、环保意识落后、人力资本向社会生产力转化周期较长有关,是今后政策发展中需要注意的问题。
Based on China's 30 provincial carbon emissions panel data during 1995- 2011,this paper uses Difference-in-Difference method to inspect the influence of Western Development Program and its mechanism. Empirical results show that Western Development Program increased the Carbon Green Contribution Coefficient in China's Western Region significantly,which was also named the production efficiency of carbon. Through further investigation from double difference estimator,this paper finds that this Program promoted the Western Region's economic development and Carbon Green Contribution Coefficient as well mainly by means of raising the marketing level,improving job opportunities and environment,developing foreign trade and so on. During this period,although people's wages and educational level have significantly risen,these factors did not increase the production efficiency of carbon in Western Region.This may have something to do with the"by the waste into the luxury"consumption habit,the backward environmental awareness and the long transformation period from human capital to social productivity. Therefore,more attention should be paid to these components.
Based on China's 30 provincial carbon emissions panel data during 1995- 2011,this paper uses Difference-in-Difference method to inspect the influence of Western Development Program and its mechanism. Empirical results show that Western Development Program increased the Carbon Green Contribution Coefficient in China's Western Region significantly,which was also named the production efficiency of carbon. Through further investigation from double difference estimator,this paper finds that this Program promoted the Western Region's economic development and Carbon Green Contribution Coefficient as well mainly by means of raising the marketing level,improving job opportunities and environment,developing foreign trade and so on. During this period,although people's wages and educational level have significantly risen,these factors did not increase the production efficiency of carbon in Western Region.This may have something to do with the"by the waste into the luxury"consumption habit,the backward environmental awareness and the long transformation period from human capital to social productivity. Therefore,more attention should be paid to these components.
引文
韩家彬,汪存华.2012.财政政策影响区域经济增长的实证研究---以西部大开发投资政策为例[J].经济与管理(2):76-79.
毛其淋.2011.西部大开发有助于缩小西部地区的收入不平等吗?---基于双倍差分法的经验研究[J].财经科学(9):94-103.
李国平,彭思奇,等.2011.中国西部大开发战略经济效应评价---基于经济增长质量的视角[J].当代经济科学,(4):1-9.
史向军.2006.建立生态的循环经济发展模式是西部大开发的关键[J].生产力研究(5):134-135.
魏后凯,孙承平.2004.我国西部大开发战略实施效果评价[J].开发研究(3):21-25.
王金南,逯元堂,等.2006.基于GDP的中国资源环境基尼系数分析[J].中国环境科学(1):111-115.
熊红芳.2007.西部大开发中的生态建设思考[J].工业技术经济(6):9-12.
伍德里奇.2010.计量经济学导论[M].费剑平,译校.北京:中国人民大学出版社.
于东平,段云龙.2012.基于DS/AHP方法的西部民营企业外部关键环境要素辨识[J].华东经济管理(12):149-154.
杨博琼,陈建国.2011.FDI对东道国环境污染影响的实证研究---基于我国省级面板数据的分析[J].国际贸易问题(3):110-123.
朱承亮,岳宏志.2009.基于TFP视角的西部大开发战略实施绩效评价[J].科学学研究(11):1662-1668.
ASHENFELTER O C,CARD D.1985.Using the longitudinal structure of earning to estimate the effect of training programs[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,67(4):648-660.
BRAUN R,EIDENMULLER H,ENGERT A,et al.2013.Does charter competition foster entrepreneurship a difference-in-difference approach to european company law reforms[J].Journal of Common Market Studies,51(3):399-415.
CINTINA L,JOHANSEN J S.2015.The effect of Plan B on Teen abortions:evidence from the 2006 FDA ruling[J].Contemporary Economic Polcy,33(3):418-433.
FAN C C.2009a.The dynamics of chinese regional development-by Jane golley[J].growth and Change,40(4):678-681.
FAN C C,SUN M.2009b.Regional inequality in China,1978-2006[J].Eurasian Geography and Economics,491(1):1-20.
FAN S,KANBU R,ZHANG X.2011.China’s regional disparities:Experience and policy[J].Review of Development Finance,1(1):47-56.
HUANG Y,TODD D,ZHANG L.2011.Capitalizing on energy supply:Western China’s opportunity for development[J].Resources Policy,36(3):227-237.
WANG JUN.2013.The impact of tick Size reduction on NYSE:a difference-in-difference analysis[D].Emory University’.
ZHANG X,KUMAR A.2011.Evaluating renewable energybased rural electrification program in western China:emerging problems and possible scenarios[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,15(1):773-779.
ZHANG X,XING L,FAN S,et al.2008.Resource abundance and regional development in China[J].Economics of Transition,16(1):7-29.
(1)它不同于真实实验(true experiment)的关键在于真实实验中的处理组和对照组是随机而明确地抽取的,而自然实验中的处理组和对照组均来自于某个具体的政策变化。
(2)事实上,1999年6月19日江泽民同志在西安向全国发出实施西部大开发战略号召,其该战略真正实施始于2000年1月的西部地区开发会议。
(3)西藏由于数据缺失,并未计算在内。
(4)关于外国通过贸易方式向我国转移碳排放的问题,并不影响本文的实证核心目标,因此这里不做具体区分。
(5)如这两个变量都与政府干预有着千丝万缕的联系,因此政府干预度(lnfisexp)变量的去留影响其显著性,但对其作用方向并无影响。
(6)由于政府干预度和工资水平变量一直不显著,结合(6)的回归结果,对这两个变量不做双倍差分量测算。
毛其淋.2011.西部大开发有助于缩小西部地区的收入不平等吗?---基于双倍差分法的经验研究[J].财经科学(9):94-103.
李国平,彭思奇,等.2011.中国西部大开发战略经济效应评价---基于经济增长质量的视角[J].当代经济科学,(4):1-9.
史向军.2006.建立生态的循环经济发展模式是西部大开发的关键[J].生产力研究(5):134-135.
魏后凯,孙承平.2004.我国西部大开发战略实施效果评价[J].开发研究(3):21-25.
王金南,逯元堂,等.2006.基于GDP的中国资源环境基尼系数分析[J].中国环境科学(1):111-115.
熊红芳.2007.西部大开发中的生态建设思考[J].工业技术经济(6):9-12.
伍德里奇.2010.计量经济学导论[M].费剑平,译校.北京:中国人民大学出版社.
于东平,段云龙.2012.基于DS/AHP方法的西部民营企业外部关键环境要素辨识[J].华东经济管理(12):149-154.
杨博琼,陈建国.2011.FDI对东道国环境污染影响的实证研究---基于我国省级面板数据的分析[J].国际贸易问题(3):110-123.
朱承亮,岳宏志.2009.基于TFP视角的西部大开发战略实施绩效评价[J].科学学研究(11):1662-1668.
ASHENFELTER O C,CARD D.1985.Using the longitudinal structure of earning to estimate the effect of training programs[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,67(4):648-660.
BRAUN R,EIDENMULLER H,ENGERT A,et al.2013.Does charter competition foster entrepreneurship a difference-in-difference approach to european company law reforms[J].Journal of Common Market Studies,51(3):399-415.
CINTINA L,JOHANSEN J S.2015.The effect of Plan B on Teen abortions:evidence from the 2006 FDA ruling[J].Contemporary Economic Polcy,33(3):418-433.
FAN C C.2009a.The dynamics of chinese regional development-by Jane golley[J].growth and Change,40(4):678-681.
FAN C C,SUN M.2009b.Regional inequality in China,1978-2006[J].Eurasian Geography and Economics,491(1):1-20.
FAN S,KANBU R,ZHANG X.2011.China’s regional disparities:Experience and policy[J].Review of Development Finance,1(1):47-56.
HUANG Y,TODD D,ZHANG L.2011.Capitalizing on energy supply:Western China’s opportunity for development[J].Resources Policy,36(3):227-237.
WANG JUN.2013.The impact of tick Size reduction on NYSE:a difference-in-difference analysis[D].Emory University’.
ZHANG X,KUMAR A.2011.Evaluating renewable energybased rural electrification program in western China:emerging problems and possible scenarios[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,15(1):773-779.
ZHANG X,XING L,FAN S,et al.2008.Resource abundance and regional development in China[J].Economics of Transition,16(1):7-29.
(1)它不同于真实实验(true experiment)的关键在于真实实验中的处理组和对照组是随机而明确地抽取的,而自然实验中的处理组和对照组均来自于某个具体的政策变化。
(2)事实上,1999年6月19日江泽民同志在西安向全国发出实施西部大开发战略号召,其该战略真正实施始于2000年1月的西部地区开发会议。
(3)西藏由于数据缺失,并未计算在内。
(4)关于外国通过贸易方式向我国转移碳排放的问题,并不影响本文的实证核心目标,因此这里不做具体区分。
(5)如这两个变量都与政府干预有着千丝万缕的联系,因此政府干预度(lnfisexp)变量的去留影响其显著性,但对其作用方向并无影响。
(6)由于政府干预度和工资水平变量一直不显著,结合(6)的回归结果,对这两个变量不做双倍差分量测算。