摘要
本文在考虑职工基本养老保险典型不同缴费基数参保者寿命存在异质性的情况下,通过内部收益率的计算考察典型不同缴费基数参保者之间的养老金收入再分配效应。根据省级宏观截面数据估计了职工基本养老保险典型不同缴费基数参保者退休时的平均余命,并据此分别计算和比较不同参保群体的内部收益率。研究发现,职工基本养老保险制度总体上呈现微弱的正向收入再分配效应。虽然低缴费基数参保者内部收益率略高于中、高缴费基数参保职工,但其内部收益率因相对较短的寿命而大大降低。这也提醒政策制定者在研究制定延迟退休、社会养老保险全国统筹等政策时需要充分考虑参保职工内部不同群体间的平均预期寿命差别,对低收入参保者予以特别关注。
Taking stock of heterogeneity in life expectancy among the insured with different baselines of premium payment in the Basic Pension Insurance for Urban Employees(BPIUE), this paper studies the pension income redistribution effect among the insured in BPIUE by calculating the internal rates of returns(IRRs). Based on the provincial cross-section data, the average life expectancy at the retirement ages is calculated for the insured with different pension payments, and then IRRs for various groups of the insured is estimated and compared. It is found that there is a weak positive pension income redistribution effect existing in BPIUE. Although the IRRs of the insured with low premium payment bases is slightly higher than those with medium and high premium payment bases, their total IRRs are greatly reduced due to their relatively short lifespan. This reminds policy makers of special attention paid to the low-income insured when formulating policies such as delaying retirement and unifying UPIUE at the national level, taking the discrepancy of life expectancy among the different groups of the insured.
引文
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(1)由于职工基本养老保险制度中“中人”和“老人”视同缴费年限的投资难以量化,所以本文将只研究“新人”的养老金收入再分配效应。
(2)由普林斯顿曲线可知,寿命与收入之间是对数关系。
(3)考虑到我国男女退休年龄的差异,将性别作为虚拟变量纳入模型中。
(4)根据国家统计局公布的结果,2010年平均预期寿命最低的省份为西藏,其男性和女性分别为66.33岁和70.07岁;男性平均预期寿命最高的省份为北京(78.28岁),女性平均预期寿命最高的为上海(82.44岁),可以算出男性和女性的人均预期寿命极差分别为11.95岁和12.37岁。根据第六次全国人口普查数据计算结果,平均退休余命最低的省份为西藏,男性为18.14岁,女性为29.36岁;男性平均退休余命最高的省份为北京(22.52岁),女性平均退休余命最高的为上海(36.22岁),由此得男性和女性的平均退休余命极差分别为4.38岁和6.86岁。
(5)参保者的缴费和待遇计发依据国发[2005]38号文件相关规定执行。