收入、预期寿命和社会养老保险收入再分配效应
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摘要
本文在考虑职工基本养老保险典型不同缴费基数参保者寿命存在异质性的情况下,通过内部收益率的计算考察典型不同缴费基数参保者之间的养老金收入再分配效应。根据省级宏观截面数据估计了职工基本养老保险典型不同缴费基数参保者退休时的平均余命,并据此分别计算和比较不同参保群体的内部收益率。研究发现,职工基本养老保险制度总体上呈现微弱的正向收入再分配效应。虽然低缴费基数参保者内部收益率略高于中、高缴费基数参保职工,但其内部收益率因相对较短的寿命而大大降低。这也提醒政策制定者在研究制定延迟退休、社会养老保险全国统筹等政策时需要充分考虑参保职工内部不同群体间的平均预期寿命差别,对低收入参保者予以特别关注。
Taking stock of heterogeneity in life expectancy among the insured with different baselines of premium payment in the Basic Pension Insurance for Urban Employees(BPIUE), this paper studies the pension income redistribution effect among the insured in BPIUE by calculating the internal rates of returns(IRRs). Based on the provincial cross-section data, the average life expectancy at the retirement ages is calculated for the insured with different pension payments, and then IRRs for various groups of the insured is estimated and compared. It is found that there is a weak positive pension income redistribution effect existing in BPIUE. Although the IRRs of the insured with low premium payment bases is slightly higher than those with medium and high premium payment bases, their total IRRs are greatly reduced due to their relatively short lifespan. This reminds policy makers of special attention paid to the low-income insured when formulating policies such as delaying retirement and unifying UPIUE at the national level, taking the discrepancy of life expectancy among the different groups of the insured.
Taking stock of heterogeneity in life expectancy among the insured with different baselines of premium payment in the Basic Pension Insurance for Urban Employees(BPIUE), this paper studies the pension income redistribution effect among the insured in BPIUE by calculating the internal rates of returns(IRRs). Based on the provincial cross-section data, the average life expectancy at the retirement ages is calculated for the insured with different pension payments, and then IRRs for various groups of the insured is estimated and compared. It is found that there is a weak positive pension income redistribution effect existing in BPIUE. Although the IRRs of the insured with low premium payment bases is slightly higher than those with medium and high premium payment bases, their total IRRs are greatly reduced due to their relatively short lifespan. This reminds policy makers of special attention paid to the low-income insured when formulating policies such as delaying retirement and unifying UPIUE at the national level, taking the discrepancy of life expectancy among the different groups of the insured.
引文
[1]Liebman J B. Redistribution in the Current US Social Security System. National Bureau of Economic Research,2001.
[2]Alessandra Casarico, Devillanova Carlo. Capital-skill complementarity and the redistributive effects of Social Security Reform[J].Journal of Public Economics(S0047-2727), 2008, 92(3): 672-683.
[3]郑伟,孙祁祥.中国养老保险制度变迁的经济效应[J].经济研究, 2003(10):75-85.
[4]何立新, 佐藤宏.不同视角下的中国城镇社会保障制度与收入再分配——基于年度收入和终生收入的经验分析[J].世界经济文汇, 2008(5):45-57.
[5]王晓军, 康博威. 我国社会养老保险制度的收入再分配效应分析[J]. 统计研究, 2009(11):75-81.
[6]张勇.中国养老保险制度的再分配效应研究[J].财经论丛(浙江财经大学学报), 2010(4):59-66.
[7]彭浩然, 申曙光. 改革前后我国养老保险制度的收入再分配效应比较研究[J]. 统计研究, 2007(2):33-37.
[8]高文书. 社会保障对收入分配差距的调节效应——基于陕西省宝鸡市住户调查数据的实证研究[J].社会保障研究, 2012(4):61-68.
[9]胡芳肖, 张美丽, 郭春艳.城镇职工基本养老保险制度的收入再分配效应研究——以陕西省为例[J]. 西安财经学院学报, 2014(3):73-79.
[10]Myers R J, Schobel B D. A Money’s-Worth Analysis of Social Security Retirement Benefits[J]. Society of Actuaries Transactions, 1983(35): 533-561.
[11]Feldstein M S, Liebman J B. The Distributional Effects of an Investment-based Social Security System[M].The Distributional Aspects of Social Security and Social Security Reform. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2002: 263-326.
[12]郑春荣.我国企业基本养老保险制度的利益归宿——基于内部报酬率的分析,载于钟晓敏.公共财政评论[M].杭州:浙江大学出版社,2012.
[13]Preston S H. The Changing Relation between Mortality and Level of Economic Development[J]. Population Studies, 1975, 29(2): 231-248.
[14]朱必凤, 邓少平. 外环境因素对人类平均寿命影响的统计分析[J]. 南昌大学学报(理科版),1991(2):79-83.
[15]汤哲, 等. 北京市不同社会经济状况老年人的预期寿命和健康预期寿命[J]. 中国组织工程研究, 2004, 8(30):6569-6571.
[16]Song Z, et al. Sharing High Growth Across Generations: Pensions and Demographic Transition in China[J]. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2015, 7(2): 1-39.
(1)由于职工基本养老保险制度中“中人”和“老人”视同缴费年限的投资难以量化,所以本文将只研究“新人”的养老金收入再分配效应。
(2)由普林斯顿曲线可知,寿命与收入之间是对数关系。
(3)考虑到我国男女退休年龄的差异,将性别作为虚拟变量纳入模型中。
(4)根据国家统计局公布的结果,2010年平均预期寿命最低的省份为西藏,其男性和女性分别为66.33岁和70.07岁;男性平均预期寿命最高的省份为北京(78.28岁),女性平均预期寿命最高的为上海(82.44岁),可以算出男性和女性的人均预期寿命极差分别为11.95岁和12.37岁。根据第六次全国人口普查数据计算结果,平均退休余命最低的省份为西藏,男性为18.14岁,女性为29.36岁;男性平均退休余命最高的省份为北京(22.52岁),女性平均退休余命最高的为上海(36.22岁),由此得男性和女性的平均退休余命极差分别为4.38岁和6.86岁。
(5)参保者的缴费和待遇计发依据国发[2005]38号文件相关规定执行。
[2]Alessandra Casarico, Devillanova Carlo. Capital-skill complementarity and the redistributive effects of Social Security Reform[J].Journal of Public Economics(S0047-2727), 2008, 92(3): 672-683.
[3]郑伟,孙祁祥.中国养老保险制度变迁的经济效应[J].经济研究, 2003(10):75-85.
[4]何立新, 佐藤宏.不同视角下的中国城镇社会保障制度与收入再分配——基于年度收入和终生收入的经验分析[J].世界经济文汇, 2008(5):45-57.
[5]王晓军, 康博威. 我国社会养老保险制度的收入再分配效应分析[J]. 统计研究, 2009(11):75-81.
[6]张勇.中国养老保险制度的再分配效应研究[J].财经论丛(浙江财经大学学报), 2010(4):59-66.
[7]彭浩然, 申曙光. 改革前后我国养老保险制度的收入再分配效应比较研究[J]. 统计研究, 2007(2):33-37.
[8]高文书. 社会保障对收入分配差距的调节效应——基于陕西省宝鸡市住户调查数据的实证研究[J].社会保障研究, 2012(4):61-68.
[9]胡芳肖, 张美丽, 郭春艳.城镇职工基本养老保险制度的收入再分配效应研究——以陕西省为例[J]. 西安财经学院学报, 2014(3):73-79.
[10]Myers R J, Schobel B D. A Money’s-Worth Analysis of Social Security Retirement Benefits[J]. Society of Actuaries Transactions, 1983(35): 533-561.
[11]Feldstein M S, Liebman J B. The Distributional Effects of an Investment-based Social Security System[M].The Distributional Aspects of Social Security and Social Security Reform. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2002: 263-326.
[12]郑春荣.我国企业基本养老保险制度的利益归宿——基于内部报酬率的分析,载于钟晓敏.公共财政评论[M].杭州:浙江大学出版社,2012.
[13]Preston S H. The Changing Relation between Mortality and Level of Economic Development[J]. Population Studies, 1975, 29(2): 231-248.
[14]朱必凤, 邓少平. 外环境因素对人类平均寿命影响的统计分析[J]. 南昌大学学报(理科版),1991(2):79-83.
[15]汤哲, 等. 北京市不同社会经济状况老年人的预期寿命和健康预期寿命[J]. 中国组织工程研究, 2004, 8(30):6569-6571.
[16]Song Z, et al. Sharing High Growth Across Generations: Pensions and Demographic Transition in China[J]. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2015, 7(2): 1-39.
(1)由于职工基本养老保险制度中“中人”和“老人”视同缴费年限的投资难以量化,所以本文将只研究“新人”的养老金收入再分配效应。
(2)由普林斯顿曲线可知,寿命与收入之间是对数关系。
(3)考虑到我国男女退休年龄的差异,将性别作为虚拟变量纳入模型中。
(4)根据国家统计局公布的结果,2010年平均预期寿命最低的省份为西藏,其男性和女性分别为66.33岁和70.07岁;男性平均预期寿命最高的省份为北京(78.28岁),女性平均预期寿命最高的为上海(82.44岁),可以算出男性和女性的人均预期寿命极差分别为11.95岁和12.37岁。根据第六次全国人口普查数据计算结果,平均退休余命最低的省份为西藏,男性为18.14岁,女性为29.36岁;男性平均退休余命最高的省份为北京(22.52岁),女性平均退休余命最高的为上海(36.22岁),由此得男性和女性的平均退休余命极差分别为4.38岁和6.86岁。
(5)参保者的缴费和待遇计发依据国发[2005]38号文件相关规定执行。