人民币汇率市场化的逆周期操作与审慎管理
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摘要
人民币汇率中间价定价机制的改革和汇率波动幅度限制的放宽表明我国汇率市场化的进程不断推进。为了对冲汇率市场的顺周期波动,我国引入逆周期因子和外汇风险准备金工具。逆周期因子与外汇风险准备金的策略组合起到了对冲顺周期波动的效果。在存在非理性行为和顺周期性的外汇市场上,应通过逆周期操作与审慎管理抑制非理性行为。但随着市场回归理性,应适时取消逆周期因子和外汇风险准备金。同时为了推动市场化,应进一步在定价机制中增加外汇市场供求因素的权重,并继续放宽汇率波动幅度的限制。
The reform of the central parity pricing mechanism of the RMB exchange rate and the relaxation of the exchange rate fluctuation limit indicate that the process of China's exchange rate marketization is constantly advancing. In order to hedge the pro-cyclical fluctuations of the exchange rate market,counter-cyclical factors and the foreign exchange risk reserve tools are introduced in China. This paper finds that the combination of counter-cyclical factor and foreign exchange risk reserve strategy can hedge pro-cyclical fluctuations. In the foreign exchange market with irrational behavior and procyclicality, counter-cyclical operations and prudent management should be adopted to suppress irrational behavior. However, as the market returns to rationality, the counter-cyclical factor and foreign exchange risk reserve should be cancelled in time. At the same time, in order to promote marketization, we should further increase the weight of supply and demand factors in the foreign exchange market in the pricing mechanism and continue to relax the restrictions range of exchange rate fluctuations.
The reform of the central parity pricing mechanism of the RMB exchange rate and the relaxation of the exchange rate fluctuation limit indicate that the process of China's exchange rate marketization is constantly advancing. In order to hedge the pro-cyclical fluctuations of the exchange rate market,counter-cyclical factors and the foreign exchange risk reserve tools are introduced in China. This paper finds that the combination of counter-cyclical factor and foreign exchange risk reserve strategy can hedge pro-cyclical fluctuations. In the foreign exchange market with irrational behavior and procyclicality, counter-cyclical operations and prudent management should be adopted to suppress irrational behavior. However, as the market returns to rationality, the counter-cyclical factor and foreign exchange risk reserve should be cancelled in time. At the same time, in order to promote marketization, we should further increase the weight of supply and demand factors in the foreign exchange market in the pricing mechanism and continue to relax the restrictions range of exchange rate fluctuations.
引文
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[2]赵志君.人民币汇率改革历程及其基本经验[J].改革,2018,(7).
[3]杨娉.人民币汇率中间价报价机制[J].金融会计,2015,(9).
[4]何青,甘静芸,刘舫舸,张策.逆周期因子决定了人民币汇率走势吗?[J].经济理论与经济管理,2018,(5).
[5]朱鲁秀,傅丽媛,陈祖全.人民币汇率中间价“逆周期因子”的政策效果研究[J].生产力研究,2018,(10).
[6]李慧勇,邱涤凡.对人民币汇率形成机制及其影响的再思考[J].国际金融,2018,(4).
[7]Dornbusch R. Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics. Journal of Political Economy, 1976,(6).
[8]张瑜.调整汇率风险准备金率的表意与深意[J].金融博览,2018,(10).
[9]沈悦,王飞,郭培利.汇率波动与货币政策调控的互动效应分析——基于人民币国际化的视角[J].经济经纬,2017,(4).