武都区北峪河流域泥石流成灾前期有效降雨量研究
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摘要
对武都区北峪河流域泥石流的形成条件进行详细阐述。调查了区域内历次山洪、泥石流灾害发生时间以及发生泥石流灾害前的相关降雨量数据,通过对该区域的气象水文资料研究和成灾降雨量规律的统计,发现泥石流发生时过程降雨量与时间呈对数关系的规律,并利用该规律对泥石流成灾过程降雨量进行了拟合,分析了拟合的精度,利用拟合的成灾过程降雨量计算出成灾前期有效降雨量。进一步对降雨规律和成灾前期有效降雨量分析得到,该区域雨水主要以暴雨方式进行降落,当前期有效降雨量超过20mm时,发生泥石流灾害的概率比较大,应该进行泥石流灾害预警。
Formation conditions of the debris flow in Wudu District,North yu River Basin were in detailed description.All previous flash floods and mudslides disaster time in the area and related rainfall data which was before the debris flow disaster were surveyed. Based on the regional meteorological hydrological data and the law of rainfall disaster statistics,the logarithmic relationship law of the process of the rainfall and time was found.Trough this law,the debris flow disaster process of rainfall were fitted to analyze the fitting accuracy and according to the fitted value of rainfall of disaster process,calculates disaster effective antecedent rainfall.By further analysis of rainfall patterns and disaster effective antecedent rainfall,two consequences are resulted:The main area of rain falling is in heavy rain manner;When the antecedent effective rainfall is more than 20mm,the probability of debris flow hazards is larger,the debris flow should be alert.
Formation conditions of the debris flow in Wudu District,North yu River Basin were in detailed description.All previous flash floods and mudslides disaster time in the area and related rainfall data which was before the debris flow disaster were surveyed. Based on the regional meteorological hydrological data and the law of rainfall disaster statistics,the logarithmic relationship law of the process of the rainfall and time was found.Trough this law,the debris flow disaster process of rainfall were fitted to analyze the fitting accuracy and according to the fitted value of rainfall of disaster process,calculates disaster effective antecedent rainfall.By further analysis of rainfall patterns and disaster effective antecedent rainfall,two consequences are resulted:The main area of rain falling is in heavy rain manner;When the antecedent effective rainfall is more than 20mm,the probability of debris flow hazards is larger,the debris flow should be alert.
引文
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[11]Bruce J P,Clark R H.Introduction to Hydrometeorology[M].London:Pergam Press,1969.
[2]陈景武.我国暴雨泥石流预报研究[C]∥第4届全国泥石流学术讨论会论文集,1994.
[3]魏永明,谢又予.降雨型泥石流水石流预报模型研究[J].自然灾害学报,1997,6(4):48-53.
[4]谭炳炎,段爱英.山区铁路沿线暴雨泥石流预报的研究[J].自然灾害学报,1995,(2):43-52.
[5]谭万沛,王成华,姚令侃,等.暴雨泥石流滑坡的区域预测与预报[M].成都:四川科学技术出版社,1994.
[6]朱平一,陈景武,汪凯.泥石流观测与研究[M].北京:科学出版社,1996:121-126.
[7]吴积善,康志成.云南蒋家沟泥石流观测研究[M].北京:科学出版社,1990.
[8]崔鹏,杨坤,陈杰.前期降雨对泥石流形成的贡献[J].中国水土保持科学,2003,(1):11-15.
[9]戚国庆,黄润秋.泥石流成因机理的非饱和土力学理论研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2003,(3):12-15.
[10]丛威青,潘懋,李铁锋,等.降雨型泥石流临界雨量定量分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2006,(21):2 808-2 812.
[11]Bruce J P,Clark R H.Introduction to Hydrometeorology[M].London:Pergam Press,1969.