我国沿海风暴潮灾害发生频率空间分布研究
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摘要
基于我国沿海验潮站和水文站典型重现期数据,综合考虑风暴增水和超警戒潮位,分析了我国沿海一般潮灾、较大潮灾、严重潮灾、特大潮灾的发生频率,揭示了不同等级潮灾的发生频率在我国沿海空间分布特征。结果表明我国沿海大部分地区受风暴潮灾害影响,鸭绿江口沿岸、河北秦皇岛和唐山北部沿岸、成山头-青岛沿岸、广西防城港沿岸、海南东南部和南部沿岸风暴潮灾害发生的强度和频率都不大;渤海湾、莱州湾、长江口、杭州湾等区域是风暴潮易发区,发生特大潮灾概率较低但严重潮灾发生的频率较高;福建北部福州到浙江南部台风沿岸、广东珠江口到阳江沿岸、雷州半岛东部沿岸是风暴潮灾害严重区,特大潮灾发生频率最高。基于不同等级潮灾发生频率的空间分布提出了我国沿海风暴潮灾害防御对策与建议。
Storm Surge Disaster(SSD) is one of the most serious marine disaster in the coastal areas of China.The occurrence frequency,intensity and its distribution is the key research issue of storm surge risk assessment.Based on data from tidal stations and hydrological stations in coastal areas,taking storm surge and ultra warning water level as well as SSD grading standard,that is general SSD,large SSD,serious SSD and extremely large SSD into consideration,this paper analyzed occurrence frequency of different scale of SSD in the coastal area of China.The results show that all the coastal area in China are influenced by SSD. The estuary of Yalu River,the north coastal area of Tangshan and Qinhuangdao City in Hebei province,from the coastal area of Chengshantou to Qingdao in Shandong province,the coastal area of Fangchenggang city in Guangxi province,the southeast coastal area of Hainan is the least affected by SSD. The Bohai Bay,Laizhou Bay,Yangtze Delta coastal area and Hangzhou Bay is prone area of SSD with high frequency of serious SSD. From the coastal area of south of Fujian province in Fuzhou to South of Zhejiang province,from the Pearl River Estuary to the coastal area of Yangjiang City and Leizhou Peninsula is the most serious area suffering SSD with high frequency of extremely large SSD. At last,Corresponding countermeasures and advices were given for storm surge disaster mitigation according to the spatial distribution characteristic of SSD occurrence frequency.
Storm Surge Disaster(SSD) is one of the most serious marine disaster in the coastal areas of China.The occurrence frequency,intensity and its distribution is the key research issue of storm surge risk assessment.Based on data from tidal stations and hydrological stations in coastal areas,taking storm surge and ultra warning water level as well as SSD grading standard,that is general SSD,large SSD,serious SSD and extremely large SSD into consideration,this paper analyzed occurrence frequency of different scale of SSD in the coastal area of China.The results show that all the coastal area in China are influenced by SSD. The estuary of Yalu River,the north coastal area of Tangshan and Qinhuangdao City in Hebei province,from the coastal area of Chengshantou to Qingdao in Shandong province,the coastal area of Fangchenggang city in Guangxi province,the southeast coastal area of Hainan is the least affected by SSD. The Bohai Bay,Laizhou Bay,Yangtze Delta coastal area and Hangzhou Bay is prone area of SSD with high frequency of serious SSD. From the coastal area of south of Fujian province in Fuzhou to South of Zhejiang province,from the Pearl River Estuary to the coastal area of Yangjiang City and Leizhou Peninsula is the most serious area suffering SSD with high frequency of extremely large SSD. At last,Corresponding countermeasures and advices were given for storm surge disaster mitigation according to the spatial distribution characteristic of SSD occurrence frequency.
引文
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[2]国家海洋局.2016年中国海洋灾害公报[R].北京:国家海洋局,2017.
[3]国家海洋局.1997年中国海洋灾害公报[R].北京:国家海洋局,1998.
[4]宋学家.我国沿海风暴潮灾害及其应急管理研究[J].中国应急管理,2009,2009(08):12-19.
[5]殷杰,尹占娥,于大鹏,等.海平面上升背景下黄浦江极端风暴洪水危险性分析[J].地理研究,2013,32(12):2215-2221.
[6]Le Kentang.An analysis of the recent severe storm surge disaster events in China[J].Natural Hazards,2000,21(2):215-223.
[7]董胜,郝小丽,李锋,等.海岸地区致灾台风暴潮的长期分布模式[J].水科学进展,2005,16(1):42-46.
[8]王喜年,陈祥福.我国部分测站台风潮重现期的计算[J].海洋预报服务,1984,1(1):18-25.
[9]方国洪,王骥,贾绍德,等.海洋工程中极值水位估计的一种条件分布联合概率方法[J].海洋科学集刊,1993,34:1-30.
[10]黄春霖,颜国泰,翁光明,等.GB/T17839-1999警戒潮位核定方法[S].北京:中国标准出版社,1999.
[11]杨华庭,田素珍,叶琳,等.中国海洋灾害四十年资料汇编(1949-1990年)[M].北京:海洋出版社,1993.
[12]郭洪寿.我国潮灾灾度评估初探[J].南京大学学报,1991(5):18-22.
[13]谢丽,张振克.近20年中国沿海风暴潮强度、时空分布与灾害损失[J].海洋通报,2011,29(6):690-696.
[14]张兴铭,王喜年.海洋自然灾害对我国沿海经济的影响及对策建议[J].海洋预报,1994,11(2):35-42.