基于Pearson相关系数及线性回归的新型城镇化与耕地面积变化研究——以宿迁市为例
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摘要
根据新型城镇化的内涵,利用复合指标法从人口城镇化、经济发展、社会公共环境三个层面构建宿迁市新型城镇化综合评价指标体系。在此基础上,利用Pearson相关性分析和回归分析的方法对宿迁市新型城镇化水平与耕地面积之间的关系进行分析。结果显示,2002-2012年耕地面积变化与新型城镇化发展成负相关,到2012-2016年趋势变化转为正相关,可以得出耕地面积变化与城镇化发展不是完全对立的,并由此提出相关建议。
According to the connotation of the new type of urbanization, the composite index method is used to construct a new comprehensive evaluation index system for urbanization in Suqian from the three levels of population urbanization, economic development and social public environment. On this basis, the use of Pearson correlation analysis and regression analysis method to analyze the relationship between the new urbanization level and cultivated area in Suqian. The results show that although the change in cultivated land area is negatively related to the development of new urbanization in 2002-2012, and the trend change is positively correlated in 2012-2016.It can be concluded that the change of cultivated land area is not completely opposite to the development of urbanization, and thus put forward relevant recommendations.
According to the connotation of the new type of urbanization, the composite index method is used to construct a new comprehensive evaluation index system for urbanization in Suqian from the three levels of population urbanization, economic development and social public environment. On this basis, the use of Pearson correlation analysis and regression analysis method to analyze the relationship between the new urbanization level and cultivated area in Suqian. The results show that although the change in cultivated land area is negatively related to the development of new urbanization in 2002-2012, and the trend change is positively correlated in 2012-2016.It can be concluded that the change of cultivated land area is not completely opposite to the development of urbanization, and thus put forward relevant recommendations.
引文
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[2]中共中央党校社会学教研室谢志强教授.新型城镇化:中国城市化道路的新选择[N].社会科学报,2003(2).
[3]单卓然,黄亚平.“新型城镇化”概念内涵、目标内容、规划策略及认知误区解析[J].城市规划学刊,2013,02:16-22.
[4]王博宇,谢奉军,黄新建.新型城镇化评价指标体系构建——以江西为例[J].江西社会科学,2013,08:72-76.
[5]颜毓洁,谢娇娇.基于层次分析法的新型城镇化评价指标体系研究[J].西部财会,2016,01:71-74.
[6]马艳梅,吴玉鸣,吴柏钧.长三角地区城镇化可持续发展综合评价——基于熵值法和象限图法[J].经济地理,2015,06:47-53.
[7]刘定惠,朱超洪.安徽省城市化进程与耕地面积变化的相关研究[J].安徽农业科学,2008,35:15632-15633.
[8]方炫,单延功,沈惠新.城乡统筹视角下宿迁市土地集约利用评价[J].现代商业,2013,36:51-52.