民航运输系统突发事件的生成机制与干预策略:耗散结构论的视角
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摘要
民航运输系统在我国经济社会发展中发挥着重要作用,同时也面临着由各种因素导致的突发事件所构成的挑战。研究显示,民航运输系统具有开放性、非平衡性、非线性以及存在涨落现象等特点,表现出非常典型的耗散结构属性。基于耗散结构理论的视角所建构的民航系统熵流模型,为剖析和解释民航系统中正熵与负熵对安全运营的影响作用以及突发事件的演化机制,提供了一条富有启示性的思路。为干预民航运输系统中的突发事件,需要创建多方联动的民航监管体制,并且改进突发事件的应对措施。
The civil aviation transportation system plays an important role in the economic and social development of our country.At the same time,it also faces challenges of emergencies caused by various factors.The results of the study show that the civil aviation transport system is characterized by openness,non-equilibrium,non-linearity,and fluctuations,which accord with typical properties of dissipative structures.The entropy-flow model of civil aviation system constructed on the basis of perspective of dissipative structure theory provides an inspiring idea to analyze and explain the influence of positive entropy and negative entropy on safety operations and the evolution mechanism of emergencies.In order to intervene in emergencies in the civil aviation transportation system,it is necessary to create a multi-party coordinated civil aviation supervision system as well as to improve the emergency response measures.
The civil aviation transportation system plays an important role in the economic and social development of our country.At the same time,it also faces challenges of emergencies caused by various factors.The results of the study show that the civil aviation transport system is characterized by openness,non-equilibrium,non-linearity,and fluctuations,which accord with typical properties of dissipative structures.The entropy-flow model of civil aviation system constructed on the basis of perspective of dissipative structure theory provides an inspiring idea to analyze and explain the influence of positive entropy and negative entropy on safety operations and the evolution mechanism of emergencies.In order to intervene in emergencies in the civil aviation transportation system,it is necessary to create a multi-party coordinated civil aviation supervision system as well as to improve the emergency response measures.
引文
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[2] ADLER N,GELLMAN A.Strategies for Managing Risk in a Changing Aviation Environment[J].Journal of Air Transport Management,2012,21(21):24-35.
[3] KOO T,CAPONECCHIA C,WILLIAMSON A.Measuring the Effect of Aviation Safety Risk Reduction on Flight Choice in Young Travellers[J].Safety Science,2015,73:1-7.
[4] ROSE A.Aviation/Measuring Safety and Controlling Risk[J].Measurement&Control,2005,38(8):239-242.
[5] HUNTER D R.Risk Perception among General Aviation Pilots[J].The International Journal of Aviation Psychology,2006,16(2):135-144.
[6] LEE W K.Risk Assessment Modeling in Aviation Safety Management[J].Journal of Air Transport Management,2006,12(5):267-273.
[7] SHYUR H J.A Quantitative Model for Aviation Safety Risk Assessment[J].Computers&Industrial Engineering,2008,54(1):34-44.
[8] BROOKER P.Experts,Bayesian Belief Networks,Rare Events and Aviation Risk Estimates[J].Safety Science,2011,49(8):1142-1155.
[9] GALEA E R,FINNEY K M,DIXON A J,et al.Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge Database:Analyzing Passenger Behavior in Aviation Accidents[J].Journal of Aircraft,2006,43(5):1272-1281.
[10]SAHIN H.A Mathematical Framework for Sequential Passenger and Baggage Screening to Enhance Aviation Security[J].Computers&Industrial Engineering,2009,57(1):148-155.
[11]FREITAS P J.Passenger Aviation Security,Risk Management,and Simple Physics[J].Journal of Transportation Security,2012,5(2):107-122.
[12]罗帆,佘廉,顾必冲.民航交通灾害预警管理系统框架探讨[J].北京航空航天大学学报:社会科学版,2001(4):33-36.
[13]罗帆,佘廉,平芸.民航机场灾害预警管理系统探讨[J].武汉理工大学学报:信息与管理工程版,2002(6):41-44.
[14]KIEL L D.Lessons from the Nonlinear Paradigm:Applications of the Theory of Dissipative Structures in the Social Sciences[J].Social Science Quarterly,1991,72(3):431-442.
[15]陈伟珂.基于熵的耗散结构的公共安全突发事件的过程分析研究[J].中国软科学,2007(10):149-153.
[16]潘跃晨.建立中国民航安全管理体系的理性选择[J].中国民航大学学报,2008(3):39-42.