迁馆耶路撒冷:国内政治与特朗普政府对外政策议程设置
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摘要
承认耶路撒冷为以色列首都,并将使馆搬迁至耶路撒冷,可谓美国特朗普政府执政以来又一次具有鲜明风格的对外决策,引发了全世界的关切。这一彻底执行1995年《耶路撒冷使馆法》的"迁馆决定",不仅反映了特朗普政府调整中东战略的必然选择,还显现出强化美国国内关键选民群体支持的动机,更是在"府会一致"情况下顺势而为的政治行动。根据对该决定在历史与现实等层面的剖析可以看出,最大化利用国内政治框架和政治生态、以修正或否认现状为威胁迫使相关方妥协,以"落日法"条款强化主动权、在同步平行的多议题之间进行联动交易,已构成当前特朗普政府设置对外政策议程的一个总体趋势。
引文
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(2)Catherine Lucey,“On Jerusalem,Donald Trump Delivers on Campaign Promise”,PBS,December 7,2017,https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/on-jerusalem-donald-trump-delivers-on-campaign-promise/;Jenna Lifhits,“Democrats Divided Ahead of Trump’s Expected Recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s Capital”,The Weekly Standard,December 5,2017,https://www.weeklystandard.com/jenna-lifhits/democrats-dividedahead-of-trumps-expected-recognition-of-jerusalemas-israels-capital.
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(3)Robert Satlof,f“What Trump Would Gain from Moving the U.S.Embassy to Jerusalem”,The Washington Post,January 25,2017,https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2017/01/25/what-trump-would-gain-from-moving-the-u-s-embassy-to-jerusalem/?utm_term=.573 c5 fe0 ec0 c.
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(2)“Demographic Profiles of Religious Groups”,Pew Research Center,May 12,2015,http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/chapter-3-demographic-profiles-of-religious-groups/.
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(4)“American Jews”,Wikipedia,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Jews.
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(4)Peter Baker,“Trump Team Begins Drafting Middle East Peace Plan”,The New York Times,November11,2017,https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/11/world/middleeast/trump-peace-israel-palestinians.html.
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(1)“Bernie Sanders Calls the Killing of Palestinian Demonstrators‘Tragic’”,The Times of Israel,April1,2018,https://www.timesofisrael.com/bernie-sanders-calls-the-killing-of-palestinian-demonstrators-tragic/.
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(3)“Poll:44%of American Jews Oppose Moving US Embassy to Jerusalem”,Middle East Monitor,September 15,2017,https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20170915-poll-44-of-american-jews-opposemoving-us-embassy-to-jerusalem/.
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(2)Jeffrey Haynes,“Religion and Foreign Policy Making in the USA,India and Iran:Towards a Research Agenda”,Third World Quarterly,Vol.29,No.1,2008,pp.143-165.
(3)Gregory A.Smith and Jessica Martinez,“How the Faithful Voted:A Preliminary 2016 Analysis”.
(4)[美]约翰·J.米尔斯海默、斯蒂芬·M.沃尔特:《以色列游说集团与美国对外政策》,王传兴译,上海人民出版社,2009年,第186-187页;Neil Rubin,“The Relationship Between American Evangelical Christians and the State of Israel”,in Robert O.Freedman,ed.,Israel and the United States:Six Decades of US-Israeli Relations,Westview Press,2012,pp.232-256。
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(1)Shibley Telham,i“Why Is Trump Undoing Decades of U.S.Policy on Jerusalem?”
(2)Tara Isabella Burton,“Poll:White Evangelical Support for Trump Is at an All-Time High”,Vox,April 20,2018,https://www.vox.com/identities/2018/4/20/17261726/poll-prri-white-evangelical-supportfor-trump-is-at-an-all-time-high.
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(3)“S.11-Jerusalem Embassy and Recognition Act”,Congress.gov,https://www.congress.gov/bill/115 th-congress/senate-bill/11;“H.R.265-Jerusalem Embassy and Recognition Act”,Congress.gov,https://www.congress.gov/bill/115 th-congress/house-bill/265.
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(1)Sarah Binder,“How to Waste a Congressional Majority”,Foreign Af airs,Vol.97,No.1,January/February,2018,pp.78-86.
(2)Mark Landler and David E.Sanger,“Trump to Force Congress to Act on Iran Nuclear Deal”,The New York Times,October 5,2017,https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/05/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nucleardeal.html.
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(1)Matthew Nussbaum and Elana Schor,“Trump Signs Russia Sanctions Bill but Blasts Congress”,Politico,August 2,2017,https://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/02/trump-signs-bipartisan-russiasanctions-bill-241242.
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(5)韦宗友:《国际议程设置:一种初步分析框架》,《世界经济与政治》,2011年第10期,第38-52页。
(1)Steven G.Livingston,“The Politics of International Agenda-Setting:Reagan and North-South Relations”,pp.313-329.
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(1)“Statement by President Trump on Jerusalem”.
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(1)Jake Sullivan,“The World After Trump:How the System Can Endure”,Foreign Af airs,March/April,2018,pp.10-19.
(2)刁大明:《美国特朗普政府首年执政评估》,《美国研究》,2018年第1期,第11-36页。
(3)Bradford Richardson,“Henry Kissinger Says Trump Could Be a‘Very Considerable President’”,The Washington Times,December 18,2017,https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/dec/18/henrykissinger-donald-trump-could-be-a-very-consi/.
(1)Rebecca Savransky,“Kissinger Calls Trump a‘Phenomenon that Foreign Countries Haven’t Seen’”,The Hill,December 18,2018,http://thehill.com/homenews/310937-kissinger-trump-a-phenome non-that-foreign-countries-havent-seen.
(2)Catherine Lucey,“On Jerusalem,Donald Trump Delivers on Campaign Promise”,PBS,December 7,2017,https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/on-jerusalem-donald-trump-delivers-on-campaign-promise/;Jenna Lifhits,“Democrats Divided Ahead of Trump’s Expected Recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s Capital”,The Weekly Standard,December 5,2017,https://www.weeklystandard.com/jenna-lifhits/democrats-dividedahead-of-trumps-expected-recognition-of-jerusalemas-israels-capital.
(3)“Statement by President Trump on Jerusalem”,The White House,December 6,2017,https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-trump-jerusalem/.
(4)Joe Macaron,“The Middle East in 2018:Five Issues to Watch”,Aljazeera,December 20,2017,https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/middle-east-2018-issues-watch-171220074428325.html.
(5)“Jerusalem Status:World Condemns Trump’s Announcement”,BBC,December 7,2017,http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42261000.
(6)Colin Dwyer,“UN Votes Overwhelmingly to Condemn US Decision on Jerusalem”,NPR,December21,2017,https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/12/21/572565091/u-n-votes-overwhelmingly-tocondemn-trumps-jerusalem-decision.
(1)“US will Open Jerusalem Embassy in May:State Department”,NBC News,February 24,2017,https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/u-s-will-open-jerusalem-embassy-may-state-department-n850716.
(2)Peter B.Evans,“Building an Integrative Approach to International and Domestic Politics:Reflections and Projections”,in Peter B.Evans,Harold K.Jacobson,and Robert D.Putnam,eds.,Double-Edged Diplomacy:International Bargaining and Domestic Politics,University of California Press,1993,p.397.
(1)陈双庆:《美国驻以色列使馆外迁决议的产生及影响》,《国际资料信息》,1997年第8期,第16-17页。
(2)赵克仁:《美国对耶路撒冷问题政策演变的原因》,《亚非论坛》,2001年第5期,第27-30页。
(3)万光:《克林顿上台后的美以关系》,《西亚非洲》,1993年第4期,第16-20页。
(4)陶文钊:《布什政府的中东政策研究》,《美国研究》,2008年第4期,第7-31页。
(5)Shlomo Slonim,Jerusalem in America’s Foreign Policy 1947-1997,Springer,1999,pp.264-265.
(1)Roger Davidson,“The Presidency and Congressional Time”,in James A.Thurber,ed.,Rivals for Power:Presidential-Congressional Relations,5 th Edition,Rowman&Littlefield,2013,pp.104-105.
(2)Khaled Elgindy,“AIPAC 1995:Politics and Priorities”,Journal of Palestine Studies,Vol.24,No.4,1995,pp.83-89.
(3)国会众议院版本得到了60位共和党人和17位民主党人的联署,而参议院版本得到了42位共和党人、19位民主党人以及1位独立民主党人的联署。参见“H.R.1595-Jerusalem Embassy Relocation Implementation Act of 1995”,Congress.gov,https://www.congress.gov/bill/104 th-congress/house-bill/1595;“S.770-Jerusalem Embassy Relocation Implementation Act of 1995”,Congress.gov,https://www.congress.gov/bill/104 th-congress/senate-bill/770。
(4)“S.1322-Jerusalem Embassy Act of 1995”,Congress.gov,https://www.congress.gov/bill/104thcongress/senate-bill/1322.
(1)Philip Bump,“In 1995,Congress Reached a Compromise on the Issue of Jerusalem.Trump Is Poised to End It”,The Washington Post,December 6,2017,https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/12/06/in-1995-congress-reached-a-compromise-on-the-issue-of-jerusalem-trump-is-poised-to-end-it.
(2)“Amendments Submitted”,Congress.gov,https://www.congress.gov/congressional-record/1995/10/23/senate-section/article/S15500-1.
(1)“H.R.1006-Jerusalem Embassy and Recognition Act of 2011”,Congress.gov,https://www.congress.gov/bill/112 th-congress/house-bill/1006.
(2)Saagar Enjet,i“All the Times Past Presidents Promised to Move US Embassy to Jerusalem”,The Daily Caller,December 6,2017,http://dailycaller.com/2017/12/06/flashback-all-the-times-past-presidentspromised-to-move-us-embassy-to-jerusalem/.
(1)Brian Katulis and Daniel Benaim,“Trump’s Middle East Policy:The Good(ish),the Bad,and the Ugly”,New Republic,January 20,2018,https://newrepublic.com/article/146677/trumps-middle-eastpolicy-goodish-bad-ugly.
(2)刘中民:《中东问题对特朗普政府全球战略的牵制作用》,《当代世界》,2017年第4期,第20-23页。
(3)Matthew Rosenberg,“Trump Chooses Hard-Liner as Ambassador to Israel”,The New York Times,December 15,2017,https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/15/us/politics/donald-trump-david-friedman-israelambassador.html.
(4)Rachael Revesz,“Donald Trump Signs$110 Billion Arms Deal with Nation He Accused of Masterminding 9/11”,The Independent,May 21,2017,https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-arms-deal-saudi-arabia-110-billion-911-terrorism-international-law-war-crimes-a7747076.html.
(5)Eric Cortellessa,“Trump Signs Waiver,Won’t Move US Embassy to Jerusalem”,The Times of Israel,June 1,2017,https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-signs-waiver-to-keep-us-embassy-in-tel-aviv/.
(1)“National Security Strategy of the United States of America”,The White House,December,2017,https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf.
(2)Ghaith al-Omar,i“How Trump’s Jerusalem Announcement Will Shape Palestinian Politics”,Foreign Af airs,December 6,2017,https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/israel/2017-12-06/how-trumpsjerusalem-announcement-will-shape-palestinian-politics.
(3)Robert Satlof,f“What Trump Would Gain from Moving the U.S.Embassy to Jerusalem”,The Washington Post,January 25,2017,https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2017/01/25/what-trump-would-gain-from-moving-the-u-s-embassy-to-jerusalem/?utm_term=.573 c5 fe0 ec0 c.
(1)Shibley Telham,i“Why Is Trump Undoing Decades of U.S.Policy on Jerusalem?”Brookings,December 5,2017,https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2017/12/05/why-is-trump-about-to-declar e-jerusalem-the-capital-of-israel/.
(2)“Demographic Profiles of Religious Groups”,Pew Research Center,May 12,2015,http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/chapter-3-demographic-profiles-of-religious-groups/.
(3)Amy Chua and Jed Rubenfeld,The Triple Package:How Three Unlikely Traits Explain the Rise and Fall of Cultural Groups in America,Penguin Press HC,2014,p.53.
(4)“American Jews”,Wikipedia,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Jews.
(1)“Trends in Party Identification of Religious Groups”,Pew Research Center,February 2,2012,http://www.pewforum.org/2012/02/02/trends-in-party-identification-of-religious-groups/.
(2)Gary Rosenblat,t“Is Israel Losing the Democratic Party?”The New York Jewish Week,February 7,2018,http://jewishweek.timesofisrael.com/is-israel-losing-the-democratic-party/.
(3)Gregory A.Smith and Jessica Martinez,“How the Faithful Voted:A Preliminary 2016 Analysis”,Pew Research Center,November 9,2016,http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/how-thefaithful-voted-a-preliminary-2016-analysis/.
(4)Peter Baker,“Trump Team Begins Drafting Middle East Peace Plan”,The New York Times,November11,2017,https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/11/world/middleeast/trump-peace-israel-palestinians.html.
(5)杨阳:《美国犹太人与以色列关系模式的转变》,《阿拉伯世界研究》,2012年第5期,第31-44页。
(1)“Bernie Sanders Calls the Killing of Palestinian Demonstrators‘Tragic’”,The Times of Israel,April1,2018,https://www.timesofisrael.com/bernie-sanders-calls-the-killing-of-palestinian-demonstrators-tragic/.
(2)“Comparisons Between Jews in Israel and the U.S.”,Pew Research Center,March 8,2016,http://www.pewforum.org/2016/03/08/comparisons-between-jews-in-israel-and-the-u-s/.
(3)“Poll:44%of American Jews Oppose Moving US Embassy to Jerusalem”,Middle East Monitor,September 15,2017,https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20170915-poll-44-of-american-jews-opposemoving-us-embassy-to-jerusalem/.
(4)Frances Fitzgerald,The Evangelicals:The Struggle to Shape America,Simon&Schuster,2017,pp.7-10.
(1)白玉广:《美国基督教锡安主义及其对美以关系的影响》,《美国研究》,2011年第1期,第69-89页。
(2)Jeffrey Haynes,“Religion and Foreign Policy Making in the USA,India and Iran:Towards a Research Agenda”,Third World Quarterly,Vol.29,No.1,2008,pp.143-165.
(3)Gregory A.Smith and Jessica Martinez,“How the Faithful Voted:A Preliminary 2016 Analysis”.
(4)[美]约翰·J.米尔斯海默、斯蒂芬·M.沃尔特:《以色列游说集团与美国对外政策》,王传兴译,上海人民出版社,2009年,第186-187页;Neil Rubin,“The Relationship Between American Evangelical Christians and the State of Israel”,in Robert O.Freedman,ed.,Israel and the United States:Six Decades of US-Israeli Relations,Westview Press,2012,pp.232-256。
(5)Rebecca Shimoni Stoi,l“How the GOP Became a‘Pro-Israel’Party”,FiveT hirty Eight,December 8,2017,https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-gop-became-a-pro-israel-party/.
(6)“Republicans and Democrats Grow Even Further Apart in Views of Israel,Palestinians”,Pew Research Center,January 23,2018,http://www.people-press.org/2018/01/23/republicans-and-democratsgrow-even-further-apart-in-views-of-israel-palestinians/?utm_source=adaptivemailer&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=18-01-23%20 middle%20 east&org=982&lvl=100&ite=2165&lea=478021&ctr=0&par=1&trk=.
(1)Shibley Telham,i“Why Is Trump Undoing Decades of U.S.Policy on Jerusalem?”
(2)Tara Isabella Burton,“Poll:White Evangelical Support for Trump Is at an All-Time High”,Vox,April 20,2018,https://www.vox.com/identities/2018/4/20/17261726/poll-prri-white-evangelical-supportfor-trump-is-at-an-all-time-high.
(3)Cristiano Lima,“Poll:Americans Believe Women over Trump on Affair Allegations”,Politico,March26,2018,https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/26/trump-women-stormy-daniels-487097.
(4)WOTR Staf,f“Open Letter on Donald Trump from GOP National Security Leaders”,War on the Rocks,March 2,2016,https://warontherocks.com/2016/03/open-letter-on-donald-trump-from-gop-national-securityleaders/.
(1)“H.R.3364-Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act”,Congress.gov,https://www.congress.gov/bill/115 th-congress/house-bill/3364.
(2)“H.R.535-Taiwan Travel Act”,Congress.gov,https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/535.
(3)“S.11-Jerusalem Embassy and Recognition Act”,Congress.gov,https://www.congress.gov/bill/115 th-congress/senate-bill/11;“H.R.265-Jerusalem Embassy and Recognition Act”,Congress.gov,https://www.congress.gov/bill/115 th-congress/house-bill/265.
(1)“S.Res.176-A Resolution Commemorating the 50th Anniversary of the Reunification of Jerusalem”,Congress.gov,https://www.congress.gov/bill/115 th-congress/senate-resolution/176.
(2)Ariane Mandel,l“Bill Honoring Reunification of Jerusalem Makes Its Way Through US Senate”,The Jerusalem Post,June 2,2017,https://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/Bill-honoring-reunification-of-Jerusalemmakes-its-way-through-US-Senate-494651.
(3)Louis Jacobson,“Is Donald Trump Correct About the History of the Jerusalem Embassy Act”,PolitiF act,December 6,2017,https://www.congress.gov/bill/115 th-congress/senate-resolution/176.
(4)Deroy Murdock,“Pro-Jerusalem Dems Slam Trump for……Being Pro-Jerusalem”,National Review,December 11,2017,https://www.nationalreview.com/2017/12/donald-trump-jerusalem-democratshypocritical/.
(1)Sarah Binder,“How to Waste a Congressional Majority”,Foreign Af airs,Vol.97,No.1,January/February,2018,pp.78-86.
(2)Mark Landler and David E.Sanger,“Trump to Force Congress to Act on Iran Nuclear Deal”,The New York Times,October 5,2017,https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/05/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nucleardeal.html.
(3)Ana Swanson and Keith Bradsher,“Trump Doubles Down on Potential Trade War with China”,The New York Times,April 5,2018,https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/05/business/trump-trade-warchina.html.
(1)Matthew Nussbaum and Elana Schor,“Trump Signs Russia Sanctions Bill but Blasts Congress”,Politico,August 2,2017,https://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/02/trump-signs-bipartisan-russiasanctions-bill-241242.
(2)Steven G.Livingston,“The Politics of International Agenda-Setting:Reagan and North-South Relations”,International Studies Quarterly,Vol.36,No.3,1992,pp.313-329.
(3)[美]罗伯特·基欧汉、约瑟夫·奈:《权力与相互依赖》(第3版),门洪华译,北京大学出版社,2002年,第34-35页。
(4)Richard W.Mansbach and John A.Vasquez,In Search of Theory:A New Paradigm for Global Politics,Columbia University Press,1981,p.97.
(5)韦宗友:《国际议程设置:一种初步分析框架》,《世界经济与政治》,2011年第10期,第38-52页。
(1)Steven G.Livingston,“The Politics of International Agenda-Setting:Reagan and North-South Relations”,pp.313-329.
(2)Dan B.Wood and Jeffrey S.Peak,“The Dynamics of Foreign Policy Agenda Setting”,American Political Science Review,Vol.92,No.1,1998,pp.173-184.
(3)Jeffrey S.Peake,“Presidential Agenda Setting in Foreign Policy”,Political Research Quarterly,Vol.54,No.1,2001,pp.69-86.
(1)“Statement by President Trump on Jerusalem”.
(2)Lesley Wroughton,“Pompeo Says US Open to‘Two-Party Solution’for Israel-Palestinian Conflict”,Reuters,April 30,2018,https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-usa-pompeo-jordan/pompeo-says-u-sopen-to-two-party-solution-for-israeli-palestinian-conflict-id USKBN1 I10 QK.
(3)Yanir Cozin and Maariv Hashavua,“Sources:Trump to Ask Israel to Withdraw from 4 East J’lem Neighborhoods”,The Jerusalem Post,May 4,2018,https://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Trump-totell-Israel-Withdraw-from-four-east-Jerusalem-neighborhoods-553491.
(1)Jake Sullivan,“The World After Trump:How the System Can Endure”,Foreign Af airs,March/April,2018,pp.10-19.
(2)刁大明:《美国特朗普政府首年执政评估》,《美国研究》,2018年第1期,第11-36页。
(3)Bradford Richardson,“Henry Kissinger Says Trump Could Be a‘Very Considerable President’”,The Washington Times,December 18,2017,https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/dec/18/henrykissinger-donald-trump-could-be-a-very-consi/.
(1)Rebecca Savransky,“Kissinger Calls Trump a‘Phenomenon that Foreign Countries Haven’t Seen’”,The Hill,December 18,2018,http://thehill.com/homenews/310937-kissinger-trump-a-phenome non-that-foreign-countries-havent-seen.