中国与东盟高新技术产品贸易动态波动研究——基于修正的CMS模型的因素测算
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摘要
本文以2001～2016年中国与东盟高新技术产品贸易数据为基础,运用修正的恒定市场份额模型(CMS)对高新技术产品贸易波动因素进行分解和测算。结果显示:中国对东盟高新技术产品出口波动最主要的因素是价格竞争力效应,市场需求效应、出口商品结构效应偏弱,但近年来价格竞争力效应有所下降;相比之下,东盟对中国高新技术产品出口波动最主要的因素是市场需求效应,出口商品结构效应和价格竞争力效应都偏弱,近年来市场需求效应有上升趋势。
Baseon the high-tech products trade data between China and ASEAN,this paper uses the revised Constant Market Share Model(CMS) to decompose and calculate its influential factors. The empirical study results demonstrate as follows: the price competitiveness effect which gradually decreased is the primary factor of China's export to ASEAN about high-tech products, followed by the market demand effect, but the export structural effect is weak; by contrast, the market demand effect which was on the uptrend is the dominant factor of ASEAN's export to China about high-tech products, but the export structural effect and the price competitiveness effect are both weak.
Baseon the high-tech products trade data between China and ASEAN,this paper uses the revised Constant Market Share Model(CMS) to decompose and calculate its influential factors. The empirical study results demonstrate as follows: the price competitiveness effect which gradually decreased is the primary factor of China's export to ASEAN about high-tech products, followed by the market demand effect, but the export structural effect is weak; by contrast, the market demand effect which was on the uptrend is the dominant factor of ASEAN's export to China about high-tech products, but the export structural effect and the price competitiveness effect are both weak.
引文
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[3]孙玉红.双重比较优势与竞争型FTA的获益者和受损者——CAFTA的启动与双方的利益分配[J].世界经济研究,2006,(01):17-22.
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[7]Fredoun Z, Ahmadi-Esfahani. Constant Market Share Analysis: Uses, Limitations and Prospects [J].Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2006, 50(04):510-526.
[8]李萍.中国对金砖国家出口贸易增长动态波动研究——基于CMS模型的因素分解及测算[J].国际贸易问题,2015,(05):82-91.
[9][17][19]郑学党,庄芮.中美高新技术产品贸易增长因素研究——基于修正的CMS模型分析[J].科学学研究,2015,(05):683-693.
[10]孙致陆,李先德.贸易规模、贸易结构、贸易竞争力与中国谷物贸易变动——基于修正的CMS模型的实证分析[J].国际经贸探索,2015,(05):34-46.
[11]吴旭梅,陈万灵.中国对海上新丝路沿线国家出口增长的来源分析——基于CMS模型的需求效应、结构效应和竞争力效应分解[J].西部论坛,2017,(01):76-85.
[12]田聪颖,肖海峰.基于CMS模型的我国玉米贸易逆差影响因素分析[J].中国食物与营养,2015,(08):45-49.
[13]李岳云,钟钰,黄军.我国农产品贸易逆差成因及诱发因素分析[J].国际贸易问题,2005,(11):35-39.
[14]帅传敏.中国农产品国际竞争力的估计[J].经济研究参考,2003,(31):27.
[15]赵亮,穆月英.东亚“10+3”国家农产品国际竞争力分解及比较研究——基于分类农产品的CMS模型[J].国际贸易问题,2012,(04):59-72.
[16][18]佟继英.中澳农产品贸易特征及国际竞争力分解——基于分类农产品的CMS模型[J].经济问题探索,2016,(08):155-164.
[2]刘澄,黄翔.贸易结构趋同化与中国-以东盟自由贸易区的隐忧——以农产品和高新技术产品贸易为例[J].山东社会科学,2010,(04):93-95.
[3]孙玉红.双重比较优势与竞争型FTA的获益者和受损者——CAFTA的启动与双方的利益分配[J].世界经济研究,2006,(01):17-22.
[4]Tyzsinski H. World Trade in Manufactured Commodities: 1899～1950 [J]. The Manchester School, 1951, 19 (03): 272-304.
[5]Jepma C J. Extensions of the Constant Market Share Analysis with an Application to Long-Term Export Data of Development Countries [M]. Groningen: University of Groningen,1986.257.
[6]Milana C. Constant Market Share Analysis and Index Number Theory [J]. European Journal of Political Economy, 1988, 4(04):453-478.
[7]Fredoun Z, Ahmadi-Esfahani. Constant Market Share Analysis: Uses, Limitations and Prospects [J].Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2006, 50(04):510-526.
[8]李萍.中国对金砖国家出口贸易增长动态波动研究——基于CMS模型的因素分解及测算[J].国际贸易问题,2015,(05):82-91.
[9][17][19]郑学党,庄芮.中美高新技术产品贸易增长因素研究——基于修正的CMS模型分析[J].科学学研究,2015,(05):683-693.
[10]孙致陆,李先德.贸易规模、贸易结构、贸易竞争力与中国谷物贸易变动——基于修正的CMS模型的实证分析[J].国际经贸探索,2015,(05):34-46.
[11]吴旭梅,陈万灵.中国对海上新丝路沿线国家出口增长的来源分析——基于CMS模型的需求效应、结构效应和竞争力效应分解[J].西部论坛,2017,(01):76-85.
[12]田聪颖,肖海峰.基于CMS模型的我国玉米贸易逆差影响因素分析[J].中国食物与营养,2015,(08):45-49.
[13]李岳云,钟钰,黄军.我国农产品贸易逆差成因及诱发因素分析[J].国际贸易问题,2005,(11):35-39.
[14]帅传敏.中国农产品国际竞争力的估计[J].经济研究参考,2003,(31):27.
[15]赵亮,穆月英.东亚“10+3”国家农产品国际竞争力分解及比较研究——基于分类农产品的CMS模型[J].国际贸易问题,2012,(04):59-72.
[16][18]佟继英.中澳农产品贸易特征及国际竞争力分解——基于分类农产品的CMS模型[J].经济问题探索,2016,(08):155-164.