可控和稳定视阈下城镇职工养老保险发展分析
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摘要
以上海市老龄化、高龄化和"渐富快老"趋势日益显著为背景,按照基金收支平衡原则,在分析影响上海市城镇职工养老保险基金收入和支出因素基础上,应用灰色关联度方法选取影响因素,通过GM(1, N)模型建立微分方程进行可控性和稳定性分析.结果表明上海市城镇职工养老保险基金收入和支出是可控的和稳定的,要想保证基金在可控性范围内平稳运营,必须遵循系统论的规则,促进系统内各要素优化配置,通过控制人口机械增长率、扩大城镇职工参保率、提高缴费基数、适当降低养老金替代率等途径,实现养老保险制度的可持续发展.
Aging, advanced aging and "increasingly rich and fast old " trend in Shanghai is becoming increasingly significant as the background, according to the principle of fund balance, based on the analysis of the factors affecting the income and expenditure of the basic pension fund in Shanghai, selected influencing factors by grey relational grade. Establishing differential equations to analyze the controllability and stability by GM(1, N) model. The results show that the income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance funds in Shanghai are controllable and stable, in order to ensure the smooth operation of the fund within the controllability, it is indispensable to follow the rules of system theory and promote the optimization of the allocation of the elements within the system. Through the control of population growth rate, the expansion of urban workers' participation rate, the improvement of the payment base, the appropriate reduction of pension replacement rate and other ways to achieve the sustainable development of the pension system.
Aging, advanced aging and "increasingly rich and fast old " trend in Shanghai is becoming increasingly significant as the background, according to the principle of fund balance, based on the analysis of the factors affecting the income and expenditure of the basic pension fund in Shanghai, selected influencing factors by grey relational grade. Establishing differential equations to analyze the controllability and stability by GM(1, N) model. The results show that the income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance funds in Shanghai are controllable and stable, in order to ensure the smooth operation of the fund within the controllability, it is indispensable to follow the rules of system theory and promote the optimization of the allocation of the elements within the system. Through the control of population growth rate, the expansion of urban workers' participation rate, the improvement of the payment base, the appropriate reduction of pension replacement rate and other ways to achieve the sustainable development of the pension system.
引文
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[20]高遵海.线性系统状态空间模结构与可控性研究[D].华中科技大学,2007.
[21]李红艳,吴忠,曹红苹.线性时不变系统稳定性控制研究及应用[J].上海工程技术大学学报,2008, 22(1):88-91+96.
[2]米红,冯广刚.渐富快老:我国医疗资源配置面临的挑战与机遇[J].人口与计戈划生育,2016(12):24-27.
[3]王莉莉,郭平主编.日本老年社会保障制度[M].北京:中国社会出版社,2010.
[4]尹尚菁,杜鹏.老年人长期照护需求现状及趋势研究[J].人口学刊,2012(2):49-52.
[5]郑秉文,孙永勇.对中国城镇职工基本养老保险现状的反思—半数省份收不抵支的本质、成因与对策[J].上海大学学报(社会科学版),2012, 29(3):1-5.
[6]金刚,柳清瑞,宋丽敏.“名义全账户”模式下城镇企业职工基本养老保险基金收支预测[J].社会保障研究,2016(1):3-7.
[7]赵斌,原浩爽.我国基础养老金财务平衡与可持续性分析—基于财政合理支付视角[J].财经科学,2013(7):38-42.
[8]郑功成.中国社会保障改革与未来发展[J].中国人民大学学报,2010, 24(5):24-29.
[9]王延中.社会保障资金的风险防范:从2012年社会保障资金审计说起[J].行政管理改革,2013(2):20-24.
[10]夏有为,杨大楷,乔健.提高企业年金保值增值水平研究[J].新会计,2013(2):4-6.
[11]郑秉文.中国养老改革之我见[J].中国社会保障,2013(11):16-17.
[12]邓大松,刘远风.社会保障风险管理与政府责任一以农村合作医疗为例[J].理论与改革,2011(1):67-70.
[13]杨燕绥,李学芳.中国养老金政策存在的问题与立法对策[J].河北学刊,2010(2):11-15.
[14]王焕清.我国养老保险的模式选择与基金缺口预测[J].统计与决策,2012(19):154-156.
[15]王翠琴,田勇,薛惠元.基于基金收支平衡的城镇职工基本养老金调整方案设计[J].统计与信息论坛,2016, 31(6):77-80.
[16]刘澍.中国城镇养老保险水平影响因素分析[J].西南金融,2012(8):30-32.
[17]徐春兰.江苏省基本养老保险基金收支失衡及对策研究[J].西北人口,2011, 32(3):53-56.
[18]叶茂春,李红艳.基于BP神经网络的上海城镇养老保险基金支付风险预警[J].中国老年学杂志,2018,38(15):3827-3832.
[19]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2004.
[20]高遵海.线性系统状态空间模结构与可控性研究[D].华中科技大学,2007.
[21]李红艳,吴忠,曹红苹.线性时不变系统稳定性控制研究及应用[J].上海工程技术大学学报,2008, 22(1):88-91+96.