国际肉类价格对国内肉类价格的传递效应——基于VAR模型的实证分析
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摘要
根据2006年1月~2016年12月月度价格数据,利用协整检验、误差修正模型、脉冲影响函数和方差分解等方法定量分析国际肉类(猪肉、牛肉、羊肉和鸡肉)价格对国内对应肉类价格的影响。结果表明,长期看,国内各肉类价格与国际对应肉类价格间存在整合关系,牛肉国内外市场整合度最高,猪肉次之,羊肉再次之,鸡肉最小,除猪肉外,其他肉类品种国内价格均具有由短期偏离向长期均衡调整的能力;整体看,国际肉类价格对国内肉价影响程度较低,其中,对国内猪肉价格影响最大,对牛肉、羊肉和鸡肉价格影响程度较低。同我国肉类产量相比,肉类进口规模相对较小是制约国际肉类价格传递效应发挥的主要因素。应从建立健全肉类价格监测预警机制、完善我国肉类储备机制和推进国内肉类期货市场建设入手,实现国内肉类价格平稳运行。
Based on the monthly data from January 2006 to December 2016, cointegrationtest, ECMmodel, impulse response function and variance decomposition were used to analyze the impact ofinternational meat(pork, beef, lamb and chicken) prices on domestic meat prices.The results showed that: inthe long run, there was an integration relationship between the domestic meat prices and the internationalcorresponding meat prices, the beef market had the highest degree of integration, followed by pork, lamb andchicken; except for pork, the domestic prices of other meat varieties had the abilities to adjust from short-term deviations to long-term equilibrium; as a whole, the impact of international meat prices on domesticmeat prices was soft. The domestic price of pork suffered the most, and beef, lamb and chicken suffer less.Compared with the meat production in China, the import scale of meat was relatively small, which was themain factors restricting the transfer effect of international price. In order to keep domestic meat prices runsmoothly, the meat price monitoring and warning system should be established, the meat reserve mechanismshould be improved and the construction of domestic meat futures market should be promoted.
Based on the monthly data from January 2006 to December 2016, cointegrationtest, ECMmodel, impulse response function and variance decomposition were used to analyze the impact ofinternational meat(pork, beef, lamb and chicken) prices on domestic meat prices.The results showed that: inthe long run, there was an integration relationship between the domestic meat prices and the internationalcorresponding meat prices, the beef market had the highest degree of integration, followed by pork, lamb andchicken; except for pork, the domestic prices of other meat varieties had the abilities to adjust from short-term deviations to long-term equilibrium; as a whole, the impact of international meat prices on domesticmeat prices was soft. The domestic price of pork suffered the most, and beef, lamb and chicken suffer less.Compared with the meat production in China, the import scale of meat was relatively small, which was themain factors restricting the transfer effect of international price. In order to keep domestic meat prices runsmoothly, the meat price monitoring and warning system should be established, the meat reserve mechanismshould be improved and the construction of domestic meat futures market should be promoted.
引文
[1]万广华,周章跃.我国水稻市场整合程度研究[J].中国农村经济,1997(8):45-51.
[2]喻闻,黄季焜.从大米市场整合程度看我国粮食市场改革[J].经济研究,1998(3):52-59.
[3]武拉平.我国小麦、玉米和生猪收购市场整合程度研究[J].中国农村观察,1999(4):25-31.
[4]张巨勇,于秉圭.我国农产品国内市场与国际市场价格整合研究[J].中国农村经济,1999(9):27-29.
[5]武拉平.国内外粮食市场关系研究[J].中国农村观察,2001(1):24-32.
[6]丁守海.国际粮价波动对我国粮价的影响分析[J].经济科学,2009,31(2):60-71.
[7]罗锋,牛宝俊.国际农产品价格波动对国内农产品价格的传递效应——基于VAR模型的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2009(6):16-22.
[8]潘苏,熊启泉.国际粮价对国内粮价传递效应研究——以大米、小麦和玉米为例[J].国际贸易问题,2011(10):3-13.
[9]王少芬,赵昕东.国际农产品价格波动对国内农产品价格的影响分析[J].宏观经济研究,2012(9):81-86.
[10]彭佳颖,谢锐,赖明勇.国际粮食价格对中国粮食价格的非对称性影响研究[J].中国管理信息化,2016,38(19):847-857.
[11]高帆,龚芳.国际粮食价格是如何影响中国粮食价格的[J].财贸经济,2012(11):119-126.
[12]王孝松,谢申祥.国际农产品价格如何影响了中国农产品价格?[J].经济研究,2012(3):141-153.
[13]Alexander C,Wyeth J.Cointegration and market integration:An application to the Indonesian rice market[J].Journal of Development Studies,1994,30(2):303-334.
[14]Margarido M A,Turolla F A,Bueno C R F.The world market for soybeans:Price transmission into Brazil and effects from the timing of crop and trade[J].Nova Economia,2008,17(2):241-270.
[15]Kim G S,Mark T.Impacts of corn price and imported beef price on domestic beef price in South Korea[J].Agricultural and Food Economics,2017,5(1):5.
[16]Kumar A,Rai D C.Trends and volatility in domestic and international prices of livestock products in India[J].2011,81(12):61-65.
[17]Sanogo I,Amadou M M.Rice market integration and food security in Nepal:The role of cross-border trade with India[J].Food Policy,2010,35(4):312-322.
(1)数据来源于《2016年中国农产品贸易发展报告》。
(2)本文选取各肉类产品为我国主要肉类进口产品。
(3)在E-G两步法第一步操作中,仅羊肉方程残差未通过平稳性检验,增加两期滞后项后残差平稳,开始E-G第二步操作,ECM下括号内为P值。
[2]喻闻,黄季焜.从大米市场整合程度看我国粮食市场改革[J].经济研究,1998(3):52-59.
[3]武拉平.我国小麦、玉米和生猪收购市场整合程度研究[J].中国农村观察,1999(4):25-31.
[4]张巨勇,于秉圭.我国农产品国内市场与国际市场价格整合研究[J].中国农村经济,1999(9):27-29.
[5]武拉平.国内外粮食市场关系研究[J].中国农村观察,2001(1):24-32.
[6]丁守海.国际粮价波动对我国粮价的影响分析[J].经济科学,2009,31(2):60-71.
[7]罗锋,牛宝俊.国际农产品价格波动对国内农产品价格的传递效应——基于VAR模型的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2009(6):16-22.
[8]潘苏,熊启泉.国际粮价对国内粮价传递效应研究——以大米、小麦和玉米为例[J].国际贸易问题,2011(10):3-13.
[9]王少芬,赵昕东.国际农产品价格波动对国内农产品价格的影响分析[J].宏观经济研究,2012(9):81-86.
[10]彭佳颖,谢锐,赖明勇.国际粮食价格对中国粮食价格的非对称性影响研究[J].中国管理信息化,2016,38(19):847-857.
[11]高帆,龚芳.国际粮食价格是如何影响中国粮食价格的[J].财贸经济,2012(11):119-126.
[12]王孝松,谢申祥.国际农产品价格如何影响了中国农产品价格?[J].经济研究,2012(3):141-153.
[13]Alexander C,Wyeth J.Cointegration and market integration:An application to the Indonesian rice market[J].Journal of Development Studies,1994,30(2):303-334.
[14]Margarido M A,Turolla F A,Bueno C R F.The world market for soybeans:Price transmission into Brazil and effects from the timing of crop and trade[J].Nova Economia,2008,17(2):241-270.
[15]Kim G S,Mark T.Impacts of corn price and imported beef price on domestic beef price in South Korea[J].Agricultural and Food Economics,2017,5(1):5.
[16]Kumar A,Rai D C.Trends and volatility in domestic and international prices of livestock products in India[J].2011,81(12):61-65.
[17]Sanogo I,Amadou M M.Rice market integration and food security in Nepal:The role of cross-border trade with India[J].Food Policy,2010,35(4):312-322.
(1)数据来源于《2016年中国农产品贸易发展报告》。
(2)本文选取各肉类产品为我国主要肉类进口产品。
(3)在E-G两步法第一步操作中,仅羊肉方程残差未通过平稳性检验,增加两期滞后项后残差平稳,开始E-G第二步操作,ECM下括号内为P值。