中国离婚率变动对住房价格的影响研究——基于空间计量模型的实证分析
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摘要
住房作为每个家庭的必需品,与老百姓的生活息息相关,而离婚率作为婚姻稳定性的综合反映,是否会对住房价格产生影响,值得关注.基于2003年～2017年中国31个省市(自治区)面板数据,运用空间计量模型研究离婚率对住房价格的影响,结果表明:1)离婚率对住房价格有显著的正向影响,离婚率每上升一个千分点,住房价格上涨6.26%,说明离婚率攀升不仅代表婚姻市场不稳定,而且容易造成住房价格快速上升.2)依据中国房地产调控政策,进行分时段模型估计,结果表明2003年～2009年、2010年～2017年中国离婚率对住房价格均有显著的正向影响,但其影响程度呈现下降(从0.130 7到0.041 8).因此以政府为主体,对房地产市场进行宏观调控仍然是未来经济健康发展的必要手段.3)中国离婚率对住房价格的影响始终不具备空间溢出效应,即本省(邻省)离婚率对邻省(本省)住房价格影响不显著,这可能与住房价格较强的空间集聚性和房地产政策的户籍限制有关.
Housing, as the necessity of every family, was closely related to people's life. The divorce rate is a comprehensive reflection of the stability of marriage and whether it would have an impact on the housing price is worth paying attention to. Based on panel data of 31 provinces and cities(autonomous regions) in China from 2003 to 2017, this paper studied the impact of divorce rate on housing price by using spatial measurement model and the results are shown as follows. Firstly, the divorce rate has a significant positive impact on the housing price. The housing price rose by 6.26% accordingly with each millesimal rise of divorce rate. It's indicated that the rising divorce rate not only represents the instability of the marriage market, but also easily leads to the rapid rise of housing prices. Secondly, according to China's real estate regulation and control policies, the time-division model estimation suggests that the divorce rate in China has a significant positive impact on the housing price from 2003 to 2009 and 2010 to 2017, while its impact is decreasing(from 0.130 7 to 0.041 8). Therefore, macro-control of the real estate market with the government as the main body is still a necessary means for the healthy economic development in the future. In addition, it is also found that China's divorce rate has no spatial spillover effect on the housing price, that is, the divorce rate in one province has no significant impact on the housing price in its neighboring province, which might be related to the strong spatial agglomeration of housing price and the household registration restrictions of the real estate policy.
Housing, as the necessity of every family, was closely related to people's life. The divorce rate is a comprehensive reflection of the stability of marriage and whether it would have an impact on the housing price is worth paying attention to. Based on panel data of 31 provinces and cities(autonomous regions) in China from 2003 to 2017, this paper studied the impact of divorce rate on housing price by using spatial measurement model and the results are shown as follows. Firstly, the divorce rate has a significant positive impact on the housing price. The housing price rose by 6.26% accordingly with each millesimal rise of divorce rate. It's indicated that the rising divorce rate not only represents the instability of the marriage market, but also easily leads to the rapid rise of housing prices. Secondly, according to China's real estate regulation and control policies, the time-division model estimation suggests that the divorce rate in China has a significant positive impact on the housing price from 2003 to 2009 and 2010 to 2017, while its impact is decreasing(from 0.130 7 to 0.041 8). Therefore, macro-control of the real estate market with the government as the main body is still a necessary means for the healthy economic development in the future. In addition, it is also found that China's divorce rate has no spatial spillover effect on the housing price, that is, the divorce rate in one province has no significant impact on the housing price in its neighboring province, which might be related to the strong spatial agglomeration of housing price and the household registration restrictions of the real estate policy.
引文
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[15] 李在军,刘帅宾,马志飞,等.中国省域离婚率的空间异质性分析[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(10):1313-1320.LI Z J,LIU S B,MA Z F,et al.Spatial heterogeneity analysis of divorce rate in provinces of China[J].Progress in Geographic Science,2017,36(10):1313-1320.(Ch).
[16] 张冲,王学义.人口流动、城镇化与四川离婚率的上升[J].天府新论,2017,33(1):103-111.ZHANG C,WANG X Y.Population mobility,urbanization and the rise of divorce rate in Sichuan[J].Tianfu New Theory,2017,33(1):103-111.(Ch).
[17] 张路,杨光.“房产证上的爱情”——婚姻市场与家庭房产产权分布[J].中国经济问题,2017,59(3):17-28.ZHANG L,YANG G.“Love on Real Estate Certificate”:marriage market and family property rights distribution [J].China Economic Issues,2017,59(3):17-28.(Ch).
[18] BECKER G S.A theory of marriage:part II[J].Journal of Political Economy,1974,82(2):S11-S26.
[19] LESAGE J,PACE R K.Introduction to Spatial Econometrics[M].New York:CRC Press,Taylor & Francis Group,2009.
[20] ELHORST J P.Spatial Econometrics:from Cross-sectional Data to Spatial Panels[M].Heidelberg:Springer,2014.
[21] ANSELIN L,LEGALLO J L,JAYET H.Spatial Panel Econometrics[M].Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic Publishers,2008.
[22] BURRIDGE P.Testing for a common factor in a spatial autoregression model[J].Environment and Planning A,1981,13(7):795-800.
[2] GUO Y,XU W,ZHANG Z.Leverage,consumer finance,and housing prices in China[J].Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,2016,52(2):461-474.
[3] CHEN J,GUO F,WU Y.One decade of urban housing reform in China:urban housing price dynamics and the role of migration and urbanization,1995-2005[J].Habitat International,2011,35(1):1-8.
[4] 张谦,王成璋.中国住房价格波动的空间溢出效应研究[J].软科学,2013,27(4):50-53.ZHANG Q,WANG C Z.Spatial spillover effects of housing price fluctuations in China[J].Soft Science,2013,27(4):50-53.(Ch).
[5] 刘志平,陈智平.城市住房价格的空间相关性、影响因素与传递效应——基于区域市场关系层面的实证研究[J].上海财经大学学报,2013,15(5):81-88.LIU Z P,CHEN Z P.Spatial relevance,influencing factors and transfer effects of urban housing prices:an empirical study based on regional market relations[J].Journal of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,2013,15(5):81-88.(Ch).
[6] 谢旦杏,林雄斌.城市住房价格时空间特征及其影响因素研究[J].经济地理,2014,34(4):70-77.XIE D X,LIN X B.Spatial and temporal characteristics of urban housing prices and their influencing factors[J].Economic Geography,2014,34 (4):70-77.(Ch).
[7] 顾晶晶,田伟.人口老龄化对商品房价格的区域影响研究[J].价格月刊,2018,39(2):1-9.GU J J,TIAN W.Regional impact of population aging on commodity house prices[J].Price Monthly,2018,39(2):1-9.(Ch).
[8] 王琳.城市轨道交通对住宅价格的影响研究——基于特征价格模型的定量分析[J].地域研究与开发,2009,28(2):57-61,70.WANG L.Research on the impact of urban rail transit on housing price:quantitative analysis based on hedonic price model[J].Regional Research and Development,2009,28(2):57-61,70.(Ch).
[9] WEN H,ZHANG Y,ZHANG L.Do educational facilities affect housing price?An empirical study in Hangzhou,China[J].Habitat International,2014,42(42):155-163.
[10] 汤韵,梁若冰.限购为何无法控制房价——来自婚姻市场的解释[J].经济学动态,2016,57(11):45-56.TANG Y,LIANG R B.Why can't the limited purchase control the house price?Explanation from the marriage market[J].Economic Dynamics,2016,57(11):45-56.(Ch).
[11] 范子英.为买房而离婚——基于住房限购政策的研究[J].世界经济文汇,2016,60(4):1-17.FAN Z Y.Divorce for home purchase:a study based on housing restriction policy[J].World Economic Weekly,2016,60(4):1-17.(Ch).
[12] 王湘君.离婚率与住房价格关系研究——基于工具变量法的分析[J].中国物价,2018,31(3):58-61.WANG X J.Study on the relationship between divorce rate and housing price based on instrumental variable method[J].Prices in China,2018,31(3):58-61.(Ch).
[13] 谭远发,宋寅书.人口结构变动对粗离婚率攀升的影响研究[J].人口学刊,2015,37(2):34-40.TAN Y F,SONG Y S.Study on the impact of population structure change on the rise of crude divorce rate[J].Population Journal,2015,37(2):34-40.(Ch).
[14] 苏理云,柳洋,彭相武.中国各省离婚率的空间聚集及时空格局演变分析[J].人口研究,2015,39(6):74-84.SU L Y,LIU Y,PENG X W.Spatial agglomeration of divorce rates and evolution of spatial and temporal patterns in China's provinces[J].Population Studies,2015,39(6):74-84.(Ch).
[15] 李在军,刘帅宾,马志飞,等.中国省域离婚率的空间异质性分析[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(10):1313-1320.LI Z J,LIU S B,MA Z F,et al.Spatial heterogeneity analysis of divorce rate in provinces of China[J].Progress in Geographic Science,2017,36(10):1313-1320.(Ch).
[16] 张冲,王学义.人口流动、城镇化与四川离婚率的上升[J].天府新论,2017,33(1):103-111.ZHANG C,WANG X Y.Population mobility,urbanization and the rise of divorce rate in Sichuan[J].Tianfu New Theory,2017,33(1):103-111.(Ch).
[17] 张路,杨光.“房产证上的爱情”——婚姻市场与家庭房产产权分布[J].中国经济问题,2017,59(3):17-28.ZHANG L,YANG G.“Love on Real Estate Certificate”:marriage market and family property rights distribution [J].China Economic Issues,2017,59(3):17-28.(Ch).
[18] BECKER G S.A theory of marriage:part II[J].Journal of Political Economy,1974,82(2):S11-S26.
[19] LESAGE J,PACE R K.Introduction to Spatial Econometrics[M].New York:CRC Press,Taylor & Francis Group,2009.
[20] ELHORST J P.Spatial Econometrics:from Cross-sectional Data to Spatial Panels[M].Heidelberg:Springer,2014.
[21] ANSELIN L,LEGALLO J L,JAYET H.Spatial Panel Econometrics[M].Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic Publishers,2008.
[22] BURRIDGE P.Testing for a common factor in a spatial autoregression model[J].Environment and Planning A,1981,13(7):795-800.