甘肃中部临夏温湿变化及影响分析
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摘要
根据甘肃中部临夏州1971—2018年气温、降水,1980—2018年干旱资料,采用线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法分析临夏地区气温、降水量分布特点、变化趋势和气温的突变性及对干旱影响。结果表明:1971—2018年,临夏年平均气温呈上升趋势,1997年是气温突变年,20世纪80年代初期较低,90年代后期开始进入暖期,特别是在1999—2018年,气温急剧增暖。冬季和春季变暖趋势大于夏季,秋季气温变化幅度较小,临夏气温以中部和北部增温幅度最大。降水呈减少趋势,20世纪70年代降水量偏多,80—90年代偏少。与历年值相比,1971—1980年降水量增加6.3%,1981—1990年减少0.5%,1991—2000年减少1.8%,2001—2010年增加2.1%,2011—2017年减少2.3%。夏季降水量呈略减少趋势,其它季节为增加趋势。春旱、秋旱略有增加,春末夏初及伏旱略有减少趋势。
Using the temperature and precipitation data in Linxia of Gansu Prorince from 1971 to2018,and the drought data from 1980 to 2018,the variation and distribution characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Linxia were analyzed by the methods of linear tendency estimation method,Mann-Kendall mutation test. The results show that,the average annual temperature in Linxia increases from 1971 to 2018,and the warming trend in winter and spring is more obvious than that in summer and autumn. The temperature increase is higher in the central and north of Linxia.The precipitation in Linxia in the 1970 s was relatively high but it was relatively low in the 1980 s and1990 s. Compared that with previous years,precipitation from 1971 to 1980 increased by 6.3%,from1981 to 2000 decreased by 0.5%,from 1991 to 2000 decreased by 1.8%,from 2001 to 2010 increased by 2.1%,and from 2011 to 2018 decreased by 2.3%.The precipitation decreases in summer and increases in other three seasons. The drought increases slightly in spring and autumn and decreases in late spring and early summer and summer.
Using the temperature and precipitation data in Linxia of Gansu Prorince from 1971 to2018,and the drought data from 1980 to 2018,the variation and distribution characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Linxia were analyzed by the methods of linear tendency estimation method,Mann-Kendall mutation test. The results show that,the average annual temperature in Linxia increases from 1971 to 2018,and the warming trend in winter and spring is more obvious than that in summer and autumn. The temperature increase is higher in the central and north of Linxia.The precipitation in Linxia in the 1970 s was relatively high but it was relatively low in the 1980 s and1990 s. Compared that with previous years,precipitation from 1971 to 1980 increased by 6.3%,from1981 to 2000 decreased by 0.5%,from 1991 to 2000 decreased by 1.8%,from 2001 to 2010 increased by 2.1%,and from 2011 to 2018 decreased by 2.3%.The precipitation decreases in summer and increases in other three seasons. The drought increases slightly in spring and autumn and decreases in late spring and early summer and summer.
引文
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[3]孙玉莲,边学军,黄成秀,等.甘肃临夏高寒干旱地区玉米种植气候区划与产量的气候预测[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2013,41(6):49-55.
[4]肖国举,王静.黄土高原集水农业研究进展[J].生态学报,2003,23(5):1003-1008.
[5]Li F M,Zhao S L,Geballe G T.Water use patterns and agronomic performance for some cropping systems with and without fallowcrops in a semi-arid environment of northwest China[J].Agricuture,Ecosystems and Environment,2000,79:129-142.
[6]孙玉莲,边学军,韦伯龙,等.厄尔尼诺与拉尼娜事件与临夏气候相关分析[J].江西农业学报,2014,26(8):105-108.
[7]李栋梁,魏丽,蔡英,等.中国西北现代气候变化事实与未来趋势展望[J].冰川冻土,2003,25(2):135-142.
[8]宋连春,张存杰.20世纪西北地区降水变化特征[J]冰川冻土,2003,25(2):143-148.
[9]张存杰,高学杰,赵红岩.全球气候变暖对西北地区秋季降水的影响[J].冰川冻土,2003,25(2):157-164.
[10]施雅风,沈永平,汝胡骥.西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初步探讨[J].冰川冻土,2002,24(3):219-226.
[11]刘德祥,董安祥,邓振镛.中国西北地区气候变暖及其对农业影响的研究[J].自然资源学报,2005,20(1):1-7.
[12]刘德祥,董安祥,陆登荣.中国西北地区近43年气候变化及其对农业生产的影响[J].干旱地区农业研究,2005,23(2):195-200.
[13]刘德祥,董安祥,邓振镛.中国西北地区近43年降水资源变化对农业的影响[J].干旱地区农业研究,2005,23(4):179-184.
[14]刘德祥,董安祥,薛万孝,等.气候变暖对甘肃农业的影响[J].地理科学进展,2005,24(2):49-57.
[15]刘德祥,赵红岩,董安祥.气候变暖对甘肃夏秋季作物种植结构的影响[J],冰川冻土,2005,27(6):806-811.
[16]刘德祥,白虎志,宁慧芳,等.气候变暖对甘肃干旱气象灾害的影响[J].冰川冻土,2006,28(5):707-712.
[17]孙玉莲.临夏回族自治州主要气象灾害[M].北京:世界图书出版公司,2017:26.
[18]施雅风,范建华.中国中纬度地带气候暖干化对水资源的影响[J].水科学进展,1991,2(4):217-223.
[19]胡实,莫兴国,林忠辉.未来气候情景下我国北方地区干旱时空变化趋势[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(2):234-248.