基于FTA方法的浮式风机基础-塔柱系统定量风险分析
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摘要
采用数值模拟与概率统计相结合的方法研究海上浮式风机基础-塔柱系统风险。以NREL OC4半潜型浮式风机为例,建立风机基础-塔柱系统故障树。采用有限元方法计算基础-塔柱系统结构失效概率,结合OREDA数据库和已有研究,确定浮式风机基础-塔柱系统的其他失效概率。采用MATLAB语言编写时域动态故障树分析(Fault Tree Analysis,FTA)程序,考虑有/无维修两种情况,定量计算该浮式风机基础-塔柱系统在全服役周期内的失效概率,并给出相应的维修策略。
The risk of floating offshore wind turbine foundation-tower system is researched based on the numerical simulation and statistical method.Taken NREL OC4 semisubmersible floating wind turbine as an example,the fault tree of the wind turbine foundationtower system is built.The structural failure probability of the foundation-tower system is calculated by the finite element method,while other failure probability of the floating wind turbine foundation-tower system is calculated by OREDA database and the related researches.A dynamic fault tree analysis(FTA)program is developed using MATLAB language,two cases,with/without maintenance,are considered,the failure probability of the floating wind turbine foundation-tower system in the service period is calculated,and the corresponding maintenance strategy is given.
The risk of floating offshore wind turbine foundation-tower system is researched based on the numerical simulation and statistical method.Taken NREL OC4 semisubmersible floating wind turbine as an example,the fault tree of the wind turbine foundationtower system is built.The structural failure probability of the foundation-tower system is calculated by the finite element method,while other failure probability of the floating wind turbine foundation-tower system is calculated by OREDA database and the related researches.A dynamic fault tree analysis(FTA)program is developed using MATLAB language,two cases,with/without maintenance,are considered,the failure probability of the floating wind turbine foundation-tower system in the service period is calculated,and the corresponding maintenance strategy is given.
引文
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[2] MRQUEZ F P G,PREZ J M P,MARUGN A P,et al.Identification of critical components of wind turbines using FTA over the time[J].Renewable Energy,2015,87:869-883.
[3] HAMEED Z,VATN J,HEGGSET J.Challenges in the reliability and maintainability data collection for offshore wind turbines[J].Renewable Energy,2011,36(08):2154-2165.
[4] PREZ J M P,MRQUEZ F P G,TOBIAS A,et al.Wind turbine reliability analysis[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2013,23:463-472.
[5] BAI X,SUN L,SUN H.Risk assessment of hoisting aboard and installation for offshore wind turbine[C]//ASME International Conference on Ocean,Offshore and Arctic Engineering.2012.
[6] MARUGN A P,MRQUEZ F P G,PREZ J M P.Optimal maintenance management of offshore wind farms[J].Energies,2016,9(01):46.
[7] JIN X,JU W,ZHANG Z,et al.System safety analysis of large wind turbines[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2016,56:1293-1307.
[8]万文涛.海上风电机组运输与安装方式研究[J].船舶工程,2011,33(02):81-84.
[9]郝二通,柳英洲,柳春光,等.单桩基础海上风机受船撞击损伤和动力响应分析[J].大连理工大学报,2014(05):551-557.
[10] GUERRERO A C,GUILLEN A J,GOMEZ J F.A process to develop aquantitative FMECA analysis of critical systems in an offshore wind turbine[C]//International Conference on Renewable Energy Research and Applications.IEEE.2013.
[11]何成兵,顾煜炯,邢诚.基于FMEA法的风力发电机组故障模式分析[J].可再生能源,2011,29(03):120-126.
[12] ZHANG X,SUN L P,SUN H,et al.Floating offshore wind turbine reliability analysis based on system grading and dynamic FTA[J].Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics,2016,154:21-33.
[13] KHAN M M K.Reliability analysis and condition monitoring of a horizontal axis wind turbine[D].St.John’s:Memorial University of Newfoundland,2005.
[14]程红伟.非高斯随机载荷作用下结构疲劳寿命及可靠性研究[D].长沙.国防科学技术大学,2014.
[15]龚伟俊,李为相,张广明.基于威布尔分布的风速概率分布参数估计方法[J].可再生能源,2011,29(06):20-23.
[16] SHAFIEE M.A fuzzy-FMEA risk assessment approach for offshore wind turbines[J].International Journal of Prognostics&Health Management,2013,4(04):1-10.
[17] DOYEN L,GAUDOIN O.Classes of imperfect repair models based on reduction of failure intensity or virtual age[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2004,84(01):45-56.