东北地区经济结构失衡水平评价及其对经济增长的影响研究——基于空间计量模型分析
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摘要
构建包括产业结构、投资消费结构、金融结构、区域经济结构和国际收支结构在内的经济结构失衡测度指标体系,运用因子分析法和ArcGIS空间分析法对2003～2015年东北地区经济结构失衡水平、空间格局及集聚模式进行探究,并构建空间计量模型考察其对经济增长的影响。结果表明:①东北地区经济结构普遍处于失衡状态,但失衡水平在不断降低。②经济结构失衡水平高值区被低值区包围,在空间上形成典型中心-外围分布模式。③SDM模型估计结果表明,经济结构失衡对经济增长的影响具有阶段性,2003～2008年,对经济增长产生抑制作用,并表现出负空间溢出效应,而2009～2015年对经济增长产生促进作用,出现"失衡并增长"。
Along with the economy development goes into a new normal in China, the economic structure imbalance becomes one of highlighted economic problems, especially in Northeast China. This phenomenon has attracted wide attention from scholars and society. The state government points out that the adjustment of economic structure and the transformation of economic development mode, are not only important measurements to promote healthy development of national economy, but also vital methods to prosper the economy in Northeast China. Therefore, it is of important academic significance and practical value to analyze economic structure imbalance and its influence on economic growth. Based on this, this study establishes an evaluation index of economic structure imbalance, including industrial structure, investment and consumption structure, financial structure, regional economic structure and international payments structure, explores level of economic structure and its spatial-temporal characteristics of 34 cities in Northeast China from 2003 to 2015 by using factor analysis method and ArcGIS spatial analysis method. Due to the spatial effects of per capita GDP, then the paper sets up spatial econometrics models(including spatial lag model, spatial error model and spatial Durbin model) in order to explore the impact of economic structure imbalance on economic growth in Northeast China, which are different from traditional regression models ignoring space factors. The results show that: 1) Generally speaking, the economic structure in Northeast China is in imbalanced condition, but the level of imbalance is continuously decreasing. There is spatial heterogeneity in the level of imbalance, and the high level of imbalance area mainly concentrates in resource-based and old industrial cities. 2) High-value areas with imbalanced level of economic structure are surrounded by low-value areas, presenting a typical "core-periphery" distribution pattern in space. 3) Among three spatial econometrics models, the regression result obtained by spatial Durbin model is more convincing than the other two. The model reveals that the impact of economic structure imbalance is of a periodic characteristic. In the period of 2003 to 2008, it inhibits economic growth and generates significantly negative spillover effects. However, from 2009 to 2015, it promotes economic growth,that is"imbalance but growth". The reasons for this seemingly contradictory are as followings: on one hand,from the previous analysis, the imbalance level of economic structure has been declining after adjustment, and appears a trend towards equilibrium. According to the principle of evolutionary economy, when the economic structure changes from imbalance to equilibrium, new drivers emerge and promote economic growth. On the other hand, in the Northeast China, the main driving forces for economic growth origin from the secondary, tertiary industry and investment, structure imbalance within a certain range can still stimulate economic growth weakly.
Along with the economy development goes into a new normal in China, the economic structure imbalance becomes one of highlighted economic problems, especially in Northeast China. This phenomenon has attracted wide attention from scholars and society. The state government points out that the adjustment of economic structure and the transformation of economic development mode, are not only important measurements to promote healthy development of national economy, but also vital methods to prosper the economy in Northeast China. Therefore, it is of important academic significance and practical value to analyze economic structure imbalance and its influence on economic growth. Based on this, this study establishes an evaluation index of economic structure imbalance, including industrial structure, investment and consumption structure, financial structure, regional economic structure and international payments structure, explores level of economic structure and its spatial-temporal characteristics of 34 cities in Northeast China from 2003 to 2015 by using factor analysis method and ArcGIS spatial analysis method. Due to the spatial effects of per capita GDP, then the paper sets up spatial econometrics models(including spatial lag model, spatial error model and spatial Durbin model) in order to explore the impact of economic structure imbalance on economic growth in Northeast China, which are different from traditional regression models ignoring space factors. The results show that: 1) Generally speaking, the economic structure in Northeast China is in imbalanced condition, but the level of imbalance is continuously decreasing. There is spatial heterogeneity in the level of imbalance, and the high level of imbalance area mainly concentrates in resource-based and old industrial cities. 2) High-value areas with imbalanced level of economic structure are surrounded by low-value areas, presenting a typical "core-periphery" distribution pattern in space. 3) Among three spatial econometrics models, the regression result obtained by spatial Durbin model is more convincing than the other two. The model reveals that the impact of economic structure imbalance is of a periodic characteristic. In the period of 2003 to 2008, it inhibits economic growth and generates significantly negative spillover effects. However, from 2009 to 2015, it promotes economic growth,that is"imbalance but growth". The reasons for this seemingly contradictory are as followings: on one hand,from the previous analysis, the imbalance level of economic structure has been declining after adjustment, and appears a trend towards equilibrium. According to the principle of evolutionary economy, when the economic structure changes from imbalance to equilibrium, new drivers emerge and promote economic growth. On the other hand, in the Northeast China, the main driving forces for economic growth origin from the secondary, tertiary industry and investment, structure imbalance within a certain range can still stimulate economic growth weakly.
引文
[1]陈妍,梅林.东北地区资源型城市经济转型发展波动特征与影响因素——基于面板数据模型的分析[J].地理科学, 2017,37(7):1080-1086.[Chen Yan, Mei Lin. Cyclical characteristics and influential factors of resource-based cities’economy in Northeast China—Based on panel data model. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2017, 37(7):1080-1086.]
[2]Chenery H B. Patterns of industrial growth[J]. American Economic Review, 1960, 50(4):624-654.
[3]Kuznets S, Murphy J T. Modern economic growth:Rate, structure, and spread[M]. New Haven:Yale University Press, 1966.
[4]Kongsamut P, Rebelo S, Xie D. Beyond balanced growth[J]. Review of Economic Studies, 2001, 68(4):869-882.
[5]Ngai L R, Pissarides C A. Structural change in a multisector model of growth[J]. American Economic Review, 2007, 97(1):429-443.
[6]Peneder M. Industrial change and aggregate growth[J]. Structural Change&Economic Dynamics, 2003, 14(14):427-448.
[7]Hartwig J. Structural change, aggregate demand and employment dynamics in the OECD, 1970-2010[J]. Structural Change&Economic Dynamics, 2015, 34(1):36-45.
[8]Alonso-Carrera J, Raurich X. Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics,2015, 46:359-374.
[9]项俊波.中国经济结构失衡的测度与分析[J].管理世界, 2008(9):1-11.[Xiang Junbo. The measurement and analysis of the economic structure imbalance in China. Management World,2008(9):1-11.]
[10]刘迎秋,吕风勇.中国宏观经济运行报告(2013~2014)[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2013.[Liu Yingqiu, Lv Fengyong. Report on the macro-economic operation of China(2013-2014).Beijing:Social Science Literature Press, 2013.]
[11]张伟,范德成,王韶华.我国经济结构测度及其影响因素的实证研究[J].东北大学学报(自然科学版), 2013, 34(2):301-304.[Zhang Wei, Fan Decheng, Wang Shaohua. Empirical study on the measurement of China’s economic structure and its influencing factors. Journal of Northeastern University(Natural Science), 2013, 34(2):301-304.]
[12]刘伟,张辉.中国经济增长中的产业结构变迁和技术进步[J].经济研究, 2008(11):4-15.[Liu Wei, Zhang Hui. Structural change and technical advance in China’s economic growth.Economic Research Journal, 2008(11):4-15.]
[13]干春晖,郑若谷.改革开放以来产业结构演进与生产率增长研究——对中国1978~2007年“结构红利假说”的检验[J].中国工业经济, 2009(2):55-65.[Gan Chunhui, Zheng Ruogu. An empirical study on charge of industrial structure and productivity growth since the reform and opening up—A test for the structure-bonus hypotheses form 1978 to 2007 in China. China Industrial Economics, 2009(2):55-65.]
[14]陈利,朱喜钢,李小虎.基于产业结构视角的云南省县域经济差异研究[J].地理科学, 2016, 36(3):384-392.[Chen Li, Zhu Xigang, Li Xiaohu. Disparities of country economy at Yunnan Province in China base on the perspective of industrial structure. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2016, 36(3):384-392.]
[15]李汝资,刘耀彬,谢德金.中国产业结构变迁中的经济效率演进及影响因素[J].地理学报, 2017, 72(12):2179-2198.[Li Ruzi, Liu Yaobin, Xie Dejin. Evolution of economic efficiency and its influencing factors in the industrial structure changes in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(12):2179-2198.]
[16]于婷婷,宋玉祥,阿荣,等.东北地区人口结构与经济发展耦合关系研究[J].地理科学, 2018, 38(1):114-121.[Yu Tingting,Song Yuxiang, A Rong et al. The coupling relationship between population structure and economic development in Northeast China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2018, 38(1):114-121.]
[17]马仁锋,候勃,张文忠,等.海洋产业影响省域经济增长估计及其分异动因判识[J].地理科学, 2018, 38(2):177-185.[Ma Renfeng, Hou Bo, Zhang Wenzhong et al. Estimates of marine industry impact on provincial economic growth and its identification of differentiation dynamics in 2006-2015. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2018, 38(2):177-185.]
[18]刘燕妮,安立仁,金田林.经济结构失衡背景下的中国经济增长质量[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2014(2):20-35.[Liu Yanni, An Liren, Jin Tianlin. Quality economic growth of China under the background of imbalanced economic structure. The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics, 2014(2):20-35.]
[19]国家统计局城市社会经济调查司.中国城市统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2004-2016.[Department of Urban Social Economic Survey of the National Bureau of Statistics. China city statistical yearbook. Beijing:China Statistics Press, 2004-2016.]
[20]辽宁省统计局.辽宁统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2004-2016.[Liaoning Provincial Bureau of Statistics. Liaoning statistical yearbook. Beijing:China Statistics Press, 2004-2016.]
[21]吉林省统计局,国家统计局吉林调查总队.吉林统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2004-2016.[Jilin Provincial Bureau of Statistics, Jilin Investigation Corps of National Bureau of Statistics. Jilin statistical yearbook. Beijing:China Statistics Press, 2004-2016.]
[22]黑龙江省统计局,国家统计局黑龙江调查总队.黑龙江统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2004-2016.[Heilongjiang Provincial Bureau of Statistics, Heilongjiang Investigation Corps of National Bureau of Statistics. Heilongjiang statistical yearbook. Beijing:China Statistics Press, 2004-2016.]
[23]魏建,彭涛,王安.山东省经济结构的失衡水平:测度和比较[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2010, 20(3):42-47.[Wei Jian,Peng Tao, Wang An. The imbalance level of the structure of shandong economy:Measurement and comparison. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2010,20(3):42-47.]
[24]孙守恒,王维才.基于因子分析的城市汽车共享环境评价[J].经济地理, 2017, 37(6):84-91.[Sun Shouheng, Wang Weicai.Evaluation of car sharing environment in cities based on factor analysis. Economic Geography, 2017, 37(6):84-91.]
[25]王雪辉,谷国锋.基于市场潜能的城市经济增长空间格局及溢出效应[J].地理科学, 2017, 37(11):1617-1623.[Wang Xuehui, Gu Guofeng. Spatial pattern and spillover effects of urban economic growth based on market potential. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2017, 37(11):1617-1623.]
[26]柯善咨,向娟. 1996~2009年中国城市固定资本存量估算[J].统计研究, 2012, 29(7):19-24.[Ke Shanzi, Xiang Juan. Estimation of the fixed capital stocks in Chinese cities for 1996-2009.Statistical Research, 2012, 29(7):19-24.]
[27]沈体雁,冯等田,孙铁山.空间计量经济学[M].北京:北京大学出版社, 2010:67-78.[Shen Tiyan, Feng Dengtian, Sun Tieshan. Spatial econometrics. Beijing:Peking University Press,2010:67-78.]
[2]Chenery H B. Patterns of industrial growth[J]. American Economic Review, 1960, 50(4):624-654.
[3]Kuznets S, Murphy J T. Modern economic growth:Rate, structure, and spread[M]. New Haven:Yale University Press, 1966.
[4]Kongsamut P, Rebelo S, Xie D. Beyond balanced growth[J]. Review of Economic Studies, 2001, 68(4):869-882.
[5]Ngai L R, Pissarides C A. Structural change in a multisector model of growth[J]. American Economic Review, 2007, 97(1):429-443.
[6]Peneder M. Industrial change and aggregate growth[J]. Structural Change&Economic Dynamics, 2003, 14(14):427-448.
[7]Hartwig J. Structural change, aggregate demand and employment dynamics in the OECD, 1970-2010[J]. Structural Change&Economic Dynamics, 2015, 34(1):36-45.
[8]Alonso-Carrera J, Raurich X. Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics,2015, 46:359-374.
[9]项俊波.中国经济结构失衡的测度与分析[J].管理世界, 2008(9):1-11.[Xiang Junbo. The measurement and analysis of the economic structure imbalance in China. Management World,2008(9):1-11.]
[10]刘迎秋,吕风勇.中国宏观经济运行报告(2013~2014)[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2013.[Liu Yingqiu, Lv Fengyong. Report on the macro-economic operation of China(2013-2014).Beijing:Social Science Literature Press, 2013.]
[11]张伟,范德成,王韶华.我国经济结构测度及其影响因素的实证研究[J].东北大学学报(自然科学版), 2013, 34(2):301-304.[Zhang Wei, Fan Decheng, Wang Shaohua. Empirical study on the measurement of China’s economic structure and its influencing factors. Journal of Northeastern University(Natural Science), 2013, 34(2):301-304.]
[12]刘伟,张辉.中国经济增长中的产业结构变迁和技术进步[J].经济研究, 2008(11):4-15.[Liu Wei, Zhang Hui. Structural change and technical advance in China’s economic growth.Economic Research Journal, 2008(11):4-15.]
[13]干春晖,郑若谷.改革开放以来产业结构演进与生产率增长研究——对中国1978~2007年“结构红利假说”的检验[J].中国工业经济, 2009(2):55-65.[Gan Chunhui, Zheng Ruogu. An empirical study on charge of industrial structure and productivity growth since the reform and opening up—A test for the structure-bonus hypotheses form 1978 to 2007 in China. China Industrial Economics, 2009(2):55-65.]
[14]陈利,朱喜钢,李小虎.基于产业结构视角的云南省县域经济差异研究[J].地理科学, 2016, 36(3):384-392.[Chen Li, Zhu Xigang, Li Xiaohu. Disparities of country economy at Yunnan Province in China base on the perspective of industrial structure. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2016, 36(3):384-392.]
[15]李汝资,刘耀彬,谢德金.中国产业结构变迁中的经济效率演进及影响因素[J].地理学报, 2017, 72(12):2179-2198.[Li Ruzi, Liu Yaobin, Xie Dejin. Evolution of economic efficiency and its influencing factors in the industrial structure changes in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(12):2179-2198.]
[16]于婷婷,宋玉祥,阿荣,等.东北地区人口结构与经济发展耦合关系研究[J].地理科学, 2018, 38(1):114-121.[Yu Tingting,Song Yuxiang, A Rong et al. The coupling relationship between population structure and economic development in Northeast China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2018, 38(1):114-121.]
[17]马仁锋,候勃,张文忠,等.海洋产业影响省域经济增长估计及其分异动因判识[J].地理科学, 2018, 38(2):177-185.[Ma Renfeng, Hou Bo, Zhang Wenzhong et al. Estimates of marine industry impact on provincial economic growth and its identification of differentiation dynamics in 2006-2015. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2018, 38(2):177-185.]
[18]刘燕妮,安立仁,金田林.经济结构失衡背景下的中国经济增长质量[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2014(2):20-35.[Liu Yanni, An Liren, Jin Tianlin. Quality economic growth of China under the background of imbalanced economic structure. The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics, 2014(2):20-35.]
[19]国家统计局城市社会经济调查司.中国城市统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2004-2016.[Department of Urban Social Economic Survey of the National Bureau of Statistics. China city statistical yearbook. Beijing:China Statistics Press, 2004-2016.]
[20]辽宁省统计局.辽宁统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2004-2016.[Liaoning Provincial Bureau of Statistics. Liaoning statistical yearbook. Beijing:China Statistics Press, 2004-2016.]
[21]吉林省统计局,国家统计局吉林调查总队.吉林统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2004-2016.[Jilin Provincial Bureau of Statistics, Jilin Investigation Corps of National Bureau of Statistics. Jilin statistical yearbook. Beijing:China Statistics Press, 2004-2016.]
[22]黑龙江省统计局,国家统计局黑龙江调查总队.黑龙江统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2004-2016.[Heilongjiang Provincial Bureau of Statistics, Heilongjiang Investigation Corps of National Bureau of Statistics. Heilongjiang statistical yearbook. Beijing:China Statistics Press, 2004-2016.]
[23]魏建,彭涛,王安.山东省经济结构的失衡水平:测度和比较[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2010, 20(3):42-47.[Wei Jian,Peng Tao, Wang An. The imbalance level of the structure of shandong economy:Measurement and comparison. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2010,20(3):42-47.]
[24]孙守恒,王维才.基于因子分析的城市汽车共享环境评价[J].经济地理, 2017, 37(6):84-91.[Sun Shouheng, Wang Weicai.Evaluation of car sharing environment in cities based on factor analysis. Economic Geography, 2017, 37(6):84-91.]
[25]王雪辉,谷国锋.基于市场潜能的城市经济增长空间格局及溢出效应[J].地理科学, 2017, 37(11):1617-1623.[Wang Xuehui, Gu Guofeng. Spatial pattern and spillover effects of urban economic growth based on market potential. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2017, 37(11):1617-1623.]
[26]柯善咨,向娟. 1996~2009年中国城市固定资本存量估算[J].统计研究, 2012, 29(7):19-24.[Ke Shanzi, Xiang Juan. Estimation of the fixed capital stocks in Chinese cities for 1996-2009.Statistical Research, 2012, 29(7):19-24.]
[27]沈体雁,冯等田,孙铁山.空间计量经济学[M].北京:北京大学出版社, 2010:67-78.[Shen Tiyan, Feng Dengtian, Sun Tieshan. Spatial econometrics. Beijing:Peking University Press,2010:67-78.]