基于LMDI的中国行业节能机制研究
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摘要
在推演出行业初级能源消费构成的基础上,借助对数平均迪氏指数因素分解法,兼顾行业单位产出能耗效应的视角,对行业能源消费结构、能源效率、产出结构及产出规模的节能效应进行了研究。研究发现:2005～2016年期间,行业能源消费结构的刚性限制了其行业节能功效发挥;行业能源效率、产出结构抑制着行业能源消费增长并呈现出时间区间规律性,2012后,农林牧渔业、批发零售和住宿餐饮业面临着节能技术瓶颈;行业产出规模推动行业能源消费递减式增长,工业、交通运输仓储和邮政业单位产出导致能源消费增长幅度显著高过其他行业。从单位产出综合能耗效应看,交通运输仓储和邮政业、其他服务业未来的行业节能值得关注。鉴于此,从行业能源效率、产出结构视角给出节能对策。
Based on deducing the composition of primary energy consumption in each sector, this paper studies the energy-saving effects of energy consumption structure, energy efficiency, output structure and output scale in each sector by the logarithmic mean Divisia Index(LMDI), as well as the energy consumption effect of output per unit. Results show that, during the periods from 2005 to 2016, the rigidity of energy consumption structure of each sector limits its energy-saving utility. Energy efficiency and output structure of the sector restrain the growth of energy consumption and show time-interval regularity. After 2012, the sector of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and the sector of wholesale, retail trades, hotels and catering services may face bottlenecks of energy-saving technology. The growth of energy consumption promoted by sector's output scale is gradually weakening, and the growth of energy consumption resulting from unit output of the industry and the sector of transportation, storage and post leads to other sector significantly. From the comprehensive energy consumption effect of unit output, energy saving in the sector of transportation, storage, post and the sector of other services in the future should be payed attention. In view of this, it put forward energy-saving countermeasures from the perspective of sector's energy efficiency and output structure.
Based on deducing the composition of primary energy consumption in each sector, this paper studies the energy-saving effects of energy consumption structure, energy efficiency, output structure and output scale in each sector by the logarithmic mean Divisia Index(LMDI), as well as the energy consumption effect of output per unit. Results show that, during the periods from 2005 to 2016, the rigidity of energy consumption structure of each sector limits its energy-saving utility. Energy efficiency and output structure of the sector restrain the growth of energy consumption and show time-interval regularity. After 2012, the sector of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and the sector of wholesale, retail trades, hotels and catering services may face bottlenecks of energy-saving technology. The growth of energy consumption promoted by sector's output scale is gradually weakening, and the growth of energy consumption resulting from unit output of the industry and the sector of transportation, storage and post leads to other sector significantly. From the comprehensive energy consumption effect of unit output, energy saving in the sector of transportation, storage, post and the sector of other services in the future should be payed attention. In view of this, it put forward energy-saving countermeasures from the perspective of sector's energy efficiency and output structure.
引文
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[3] Wang Q.Effects of Urbanisation on Energy Consumption in China[J].Energy Policy,2014,65(2):332-339.
[4] Dong K,Sun R,Li H,et al.A Review of China's Energy Consumption Structure and Outlook Based on a Long-range Energy Alternatives Modeling Tool[J].Petroleum Science,2017,14(1):214-227.
[5] 路正南.产业结构调整对我国能源消费影响的实证分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1999(12):53-55.
[6] 史丹,张金隆.产业结构变动对能源消费的影响[J].经济理论与经济管理,2003(8):30-32.
[7] Zhang B,Qu X,Meng J,et al.Identifying Primary Energy Requirements in Structural Path Analysis:A Case Study of China 2012[J].Applied Energy,2017,191(4):425-435.
[8] Zhang Y,Peng H,Su B.Energy Rebound Effect in China's Industry:An Aggregate and Disaggregate Analysis[J].Energy Economics,2017,61(2):199-208.
[9] Keho Y.What Drives Energy Consumption in Developing Countries?The Experience of Selected African Countries[J].Energy Policy,2016,91(4):233-246.
[10] Zhong S.Structural Decompositions of Energy Consumption between 1995 and 2009:Evidence from WIOD[J].Energy Policy,2018,122(11):655-667.
[11] 姜磊,季民河.基于空间异质性的中国能源消费强度研究——资源禀赋、产业结构、技术进步和市场调节机制的视角[J].产业经济研究,2011(4):61-70.
[12] 东方社奇,杨瑞霞.中国产业结构变动与能源消费关系研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2012,27(2):30-35.
[13] Sun W,Li W,Tang Z,et al.Industrial Structure Optimization in Central China Under the Energy Constraint[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2016,26(9):1377-1388.
[14] 纪玉俊,赵娜.产业结构变动、地区市场化水平与能源消费[J].软科学,2017,31(5):16-20.
[15] Ang B W,Zhang F Q.A Survey of Index Decomposition Analysis in Energy and Environmental Studies[J].Energy,2000,25(12):1149-1176.
[16] Ang B W.Decomposition Analysis for Policymaking in Energy [J].Energy Policy,2004,32(9):1131-1139.
[17] 赵晓丽,李娜.中国居民能源消费结构变化分析[J].中国软科学,2011(11):40-51.
[18] Coers R,Sanders M.The Energy-GDP Nexus;Addressing an Old Question with New Methods[J].Energy Economics,2013,36(3):708-715.
[19] 宋辉.能源消费结构统计特征研究[M].中国社会科学出版社,2019.