基于降水Z指数的贵州省农业干旱时空演化特征
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摘要
探讨贵州省农业干旱时空演化特征,以期为农业干旱驱动机制研究提供理论参考。选取1961—2015年贵州省77个气象台站逐年降水资料,基于降水Z指数,识别贵州省农业干旱程度,结合空间插值与线性趋势方法,分析贵州省农业干旱等级及频率的时空特征。结果表明:1)近55年,贵州省农业干旱现象较为普遍,干旱面积百分比均值高达65%,干旱强度呈周期性"增强"、"减弱"交替出现的趋势; 2)重旱发生区域主要分布在贵州省东北部、中部、西南部,2011年重旱现象最为严重,重旱面积占全省总面积的26%; 3)贵州省农业干旱强度与干旱频率呈负相关,重旱频率为1. 26%～11. 39%,大旱频率为1. 55%～25. 74%,偏旱频率为1. 53%～29. 11%。
To explore the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of agricultural drought in Guizhou province,is to provide a theoretical reference for the study of agricultural drought driving mechanism. This paper identified the agricultural drought in Guizhou province by the precipitation Z index based on the annual precipitation data of 77 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2015. Combining spatial interpolation and linear trend method were applied to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of agricultural drought level and frequency in Guizhou province. The results show that: 1) In recent 55 years,the phenomenon of agricultural drought is more common in Guizhou province,the average percentage of an arid area was as high as 65%,and the drought intensity showed a cyclical "enhanced"and"weakened"trend; 2) The areas with severe droughts are mainly distributed in the northeast,central and southwestern parts of Guizhou Province. In 2011,the phenomenon of severe drought was the most serious,and the area of heavy drought accounted for 26% of the total area of the province; 3) The agricultural drought intensity in Guizhou Province was negatively correlated with the drought frequency. The frequency of heavy drought was 1. 26% ～ 11. 39%,the frequency of drought was 1. 55% ～ 25. 74%,and the frequency of drought was 1. 53% ～ 29. 11%.
To explore the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of agricultural drought in Guizhou province,is to provide a theoretical reference for the study of agricultural drought driving mechanism. This paper identified the agricultural drought in Guizhou province by the precipitation Z index based on the annual precipitation data of 77 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2015. Combining spatial interpolation and linear trend method were applied to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of agricultural drought level and frequency in Guizhou province. The results show that: 1) In recent 55 years,the phenomenon of agricultural drought is more common in Guizhou province,the average percentage of an arid area was as high as 65%,and the drought intensity showed a cyclical "enhanced"and"weakened"trend; 2) The areas with severe droughts are mainly distributed in the northeast,central and southwestern parts of Guizhou Province. In 2011,the phenomenon of severe drought was the most serious,and the area of heavy drought accounted for 26% of the total area of the province; 3) The agricultural drought intensity in Guizhou Province was negatively correlated with the drought frequency. The frequency of heavy drought was 1. 26% ～ 11. 39%,the frequency of drought was 1. 55% ～ 25. 74%,and the frequency of drought was 1. 53% ～ 29. 11%.
引文
[1]李峰平,章光新,董李勤.气候变化对水循环与水资源的影响研究综述[J].地理科学,2013,33(4):458-464.
[2]李芬,于文金,张建新,等.干旱灾害评估研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(7):891-898.
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[13]高贵龙,邓自民,熊康宁,等.喀斯特呼唤与希望:贵州喀斯特生态环境建设与可持续发展[M].贵阳:贵州科技出版社,2003:10-12.
[14]贺中华,陈晓翔,梁虹,等.典型喀斯特地貌空间配置的洪水资源化机理:以贵州省为例[J].热带地理,2014,34(2):225-233.
[15]李阳兵,黄娟,徐倩,等.对石漠化概念及其治理的再思考[J].贵州师范大学学报(自然科学版),2017,35(5):1-6.
[16]刘春艳,张继飞,赵宇鸾,等.地质灾害易发山区聚落用地适宜性评价[J].贵州师范大学学报(自然科学版),2018,36(1):101-110.
[17]戴洪刚,梁虹,黄法苏.喀斯特枯水、干旱、灾害初探:以贵州省为例[J].贵州师范大学学报(自然科学版),2005,23(4):28-33.
[18]么枕生.气候统计[M].北京:科学出版社,1963:19-21.
[19]刘彦平,蔡焕杰.三种干旱指标在泾惠渠灌区的适用性分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2014,32(4):237-242.
[20]李柏贞,周广胜.干旱指标研究进展[J].生态学报,2014,34(5):1044-1052.
[21]周晋红,李丽平,秦爱民.山西气象干旱指标的确定及干旱气候变化研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2010,28(3):241-264.
[22]王劲松,张强,王素萍,等.西南和华南干旱灾害链特征分析[J].干旱气象,2015,33(2):87-194.
[2]李芬,于文金,张建新,等.干旱灾害评估研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(7):891-898.
[3]李克让.中国干旱灾害研究及减灾对策[M].郑州:河南科学技术出版社,1999:9-10.
[4]HE Z H,LIANG H,YANG C H,et al. Temporal-spatial evolution of the hydrologic drought characteristics of the karst drainage basins in South China[J]. International journal of applied earth observation and geoinformation,2018,64:22-30.
[5]张俊,陈桂亚,杨文发.国内外干旱研究进展综述[J].人民长江,2011,42(10):66-69.
[6]古书鸿,胡家敏,古堃,等.基于土壤含水量模拟的贵州山区旱地农业干旱监测方法[J].干旱气象,2017,35(1):29-35.
[7]WU H,HAYES M J,HU Q,et al. An evaluation of the standardized precipitation index the China-Z index and the statistical Z-score[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2001,21(6):745-758.
[8]刘业伟,彭月平,黄芬,等.基于Z指数的芦溪县干旱特征分析[J].江西水利科技,2016,42(5):334-337.
[9]曹永强,郑爽,范帅邦,等.基于修正Z指数的辽西北春旱演变分析[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(1):11-16.
[10]李楠,孙培良,韩莎莎,等.基于Z指数的聊城地区干旱时空特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(5):152-158.
[11]王宏,余锦华,李宗涛,等.基于Z指数的河北省旱涝多尺度变化特征[J].气象与环境学报,2012,28(1):43-47.
[12]贺中华,陈晓翔,梁虹,等.基于土壤系统结构的喀斯特流域水文干旱分析:以贵州省为例[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(10):1732-1741.
[13]高贵龙,邓自民,熊康宁,等.喀斯特呼唤与希望:贵州喀斯特生态环境建设与可持续发展[M].贵阳:贵州科技出版社,2003:10-12.
[14]贺中华,陈晓翔,梁虹,等.典型喀斯特地貌空间配置的洪水资源化机理:以贵州省为例[J].热带地理,2014,34(2):225-233.
[15]李阳兵,黄娟,徐倩,等.对石漠化概念及其治理的再思考[J].贵州师范大学学报(自然科学版),2017,35(5):1-6.
[16]刘春艳,张继飞,赵宇鸾,等.地质灾害易发山区聚落用地适宜性评价[J].贵州师范大学学报(自然科学版),2018,36(1):101-110.
[17]戴洪刚,梁虹,黄法苏.喀斯特枯水、干旱、灾害初探:以贵州省为例[J].贵州师范大学学报(自然科学版),2005,23(4):28-33.
[18]么枕生.气候统计[M].北京:科学出版社,1963:19-21.
[19]刘彦平,蔡焕杰.三种干旱指标在泾惠渠灌区的适用性分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2014,32(4):237-242.
[20]李柏贞,周广胜.干旱指标研究进展[J].生态学报,2014,34(5):1044-1052.
[21]周晋红,李丽平,秦爱民.山西气象干旱指标的确定及干旱气候变化研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2010,28(3):241-264.
[22]王劲松,张强,王素萍,等.西南和华南干旱灾害链特征分析[J].干旱气象,2015,33(2):87-194.