西藏农业区?ngstr?m-Prescott公式参数选取研究
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摘要
针对西藏地区地域广阔、辐射站点少且分布不均匀等特征,为获得适用于西藏主要农业区的太阳总辐射计算模型参数,基于拉萨、狮泉河、那曲、昌都站1961—2004年的逐日太阳总辐射及日照时数数据,采用最小二乘法对?ngstr?m-Prescott(AP)中的参数进行率定,利用2005—2016年的逐日观测数据对率定结果进行验证,并根据不同农业区划,由已知站点的参数值推求无辐射数据典型站点的经验参数,进而选取不同农业区划的经验参数。结果表明,FAO推荐的参数值并不完全适用于西藏地区,4个站点2个参数率定值的变化范围分别为0.18～0.26以及0.55～0.64。经验参数受纬度影响最大,其次是经度、海拔。拉萨站和昌都站计算值与实测值的吻合较好。5个不同农业区2个参数值变化范围分别为0.18～0.25及0.55～0.64。FAO推荐值在高原温带半湿润区以及高原温带半干旱区适用性较好。该研究成果可为无辐射实测地区的太阳辐射值和作物腾发量的计算提供依据。
In Tibet,radiation stations are scare.The radiation is important for accuracy estimation of reference evapotranspiration.In this study,the parameters of typical ?ngstr?m-Prescott(AP) equation were estimated and FAO recommended values were evaluated for its applicability in Tibet agricultural region.The data of daily solar radiation and sunshine hours from 1961 to 2016 were from all the 4 radiation stations(Lhasa,Shiquanhe,Nagchu and Chamdo stations) in Tibet.The AP parameters were fitted by nonlinear least square method.The data from the years of 1961 to 2004 were for calibration and those from the year of 2005 to 2016 were for validation.Standard deviation(SD),mean absolute error(MAE) and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) were used for model accuracy evaluation in order to find the main factor affecting parameter change.In addition,the relationships between parameters and longitude,latitude and altitude were analyzed.The stations were in 2 climatic regions of plateau temperate semi-arid zone and plateau cold arid zone.According to the Tibet Agricultural Climatic Zoning,5 zones were classified in Tibet,which included plateau temperate semi-humid zone,plateau cold arid zone,plateau temperate semi-arid zone,plateau warm-cool semi-humid zone and plateau temperate arid zone.Representative stations were chosen for these zones.Nyingchi,Shigatse,Suo county,Shiquanhe and Nagchu were for plateau temperate semi-humid zone,plateau temperate semi-arid zone,plateau warm-cool semi-humid zone,plateau temperate arid zone and plateau cold arid zone,respectively.Based on the relationship between main factor and parameters,the parameters for the other 3 zones were estimated by using inverse distance weighted method.The deviations from FAO recommended values were used for evaluation of FAO recommendations.The results showed that the SD,MAE and MAPE were in the acceptable range and the validation results for SD and MAE were 1.75-2.80 MJ/(m2·d),1.27-2.03 MJ/(m2·d),respectively.The MAPE was closer or slightly different from 0.It indicated that the AP model was reliable for estimation of radiation.The calibrated coefficients for these 4 stations ranged from 0.18 to 0.26 and from 0.55 to 0.64,respectively.The recommended values by FAO were not always suitable in Tibet with the deviation of-28%-28%.The coefficient of variation of coefficient recommended by past studies was 15%-20%.Compared to previous studies with shorter time period,our results were more reliable since the time duration(about 50 years) was longer.The parameters were closely correlated with latitude with the determination coefficient higher than 0.6 but they were less related with longitude and altitude with the determination coefficient less than 0.2.Based on latitude,the interpolation was conducted for Nyingchi,Shigatse and Suo county.Finally the AP coefficients for 5 different agricultural zones were obtained and they ranged from 0.18 to 0.25 and from 0.55 to 0.64,respectively.The deviation analysis showed that the FAO recommended values had a good applicability in the plateau temperate semi-humid zone,plateau cold arid zone and plateau temperate semi-arid zone.The results can provide valuable information for the calculation of solar radiation and reference evapotranpiration in the areas without measured radiation data in Tibet.
In Tibet,radiation stations are scare.The radiation is important for accuracy estimation of reference evapotranspiration.In this study,the parameters of typical ?ngstr?m-Prescott(AP) equation were estimated and FAO recommended values were evaluated for its applicability in Tibet agricultural region.The data of daily solar radiation and sunshine hours from 1961 to 2016 were from all the 4 radiation stations(Lhasa,Shiquanhe,Nagchu and Chamdo stations) in Tibet.The AP parameters were fitted by nonlinear least square method.The data from the years of 1961 to 2004 were for calibration and those from the year of 2005 to 2016 were for validation.Standard deviation(SD),mean absolute error(MAE) and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) were used for model accuracy evaluation in order to find the main factor affecting parameter change.In addition,the relationships between parameters and longitude,latitude and altitude were analyzed.The stations were in 2 climatic regions of plateau temperate semi-arid zone and plateau cold arid zone.According to the Tibet Agricultural Climatic Zoning,5 zones were classified in Tibet,which included plateau temperate semi-humid zone,plateau cold arid zone,plateau temperate semi-arid zone,plateau warm-cool semi-humid zone and plateau temperate arid zone.Representative stations were chosen for these zones.Nyingchi,Shigatse,Suo county,Shiquanhe and Nagchu were for plateau temperate semi-humid zone,plateau temperate semi-arid zone,plateau warm-cool semi-humid zone,plateau temperate arid zone and plateau cold arid zone,respectively.Based on the relationship between main factor and parameters,the parameters for the other 3 zones were estimated by using inverse distance weighted method.The deviations from FAO recommended values were used for evaluation of FAO recommendations.The results showed that the SD,MAE and MAPE were in the acceptable range and the validation results for SD and MAE were 1.75-2.80 MJ/(m2·d),1.27-2.03 MJ/(m2·d),respectively.The MAPE was closer or slightly different from 0.It indicated that the AP model was reliable for estimation of radiation.The calibrated coefficients for these 4 stations ranged from 0.18 to 0.26 and from 0.55 to 0.64,respectively.The recommended values by FAO were not always suitable in Tibet with the deviation of-28%-28%.The coefficient of variation of coefficient recommended by past studies was 15%-20%.Compared to previous studies with shorter time period,our results were more reliable since the time duration(about 50 years) was longer.The parameters were closely correlated with latitude with the determination coefficient higher than 0.6 but they were less related with longitude and altitude with the determination coefficient less than 0.2.Based on latitude,the interpolation was conducted for Nyingchi,Shigatse and Suo county.Finally the AP coefficients for 5 different agricultural zones were obtained and they ranged from 0.18 to 0.25 and from 0.55 to 0.64,respectively.The deviation analysis showed that the FAO recommended values had a good applicability in the plateau temperate semi-humid zone,plateau cold arid zone and plateau temperate semi-arid zone.The results can provide valuable information for the calculation of solar radiation and reference evapotranpiration in the areas without measured radiation data in Tibet.
引文
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[9]Benmouiza K,Cheknane A.Forecasting hourly global solar radiation using hybrid k-means and nonlinear autoregressive neural network models[J].Energy Conversion&Management,2013,75(5):561-569.
[10]毛洋洋,赵艳霞,张祎,等.五个常见日太阳总辐射模型在华北地区的有效性验证及分析[J].中国农业气象,2016,37(5):520-530.Mao Yangyang,Zhao Yanxia,Zhang Yi,et al.Validation and analysis of five general daily solar radiation estimation models used in Northern China[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2016,37(5):520-530.(in Chinese with English abstract)
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[12]Akino?lu B G,Ecevit A.Construction of a quadratic model using modified?ngstrom coefficients to estimate global solar radiation[J].Solar Energy,1990,45(2):85-92.
[13]Liu Xiaoying,Mei Xurong,Li Yuzhong,et al.Evaluation of temperature-based global solar radiation models in China[J].Agricultural&Forest Meteorology,2009,149(9):1433-1446.
[14]Bristow K L,Campbell G S.On the relationship between incoming solar radiation and daily maximum and minimum temperature[J].Agricultural&Forest Meteorology,1984,31(2):159-166.
[15]Thornton P E,Running S W.An improved algorithm for estimating incident daily solar radiation from measurements of temperature,humidity,and precipitation[J].Agricultural&Forest Meteorology,1999,93(4):211-28.
[16]钟强.青藏高原太阳总辐射的计算方法的讨论[J].高原气象,1986,5(3):197-210.Zhong Qiang.Disscussions in the climatological methods of calculating the global solar radiation over the Qinghai-Xizang plateau area[J].Plateau Meteorology,1986,5(3):197-210.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[17]李成方.西藏高原太阳总辐射的计算及其分布[J].西藏农业科技,1980(4):81-88.Li Chengfang.Calculation and distribution of total solar radiation in Tibet Plateau[J].Tibet Journal of Agricultural Sciences,1980(4):81-88.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[18]潘守文.青藏高原太阳总辐射的计算方法[C]//青藏高原气象科学实验文集(一).北京:科学出版社,1984:1-14.
[19]杜军.西藏农业气候资源区划[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.
[20]?ngstr?m A.Solar and terrestrial radiation 19[J].Mon Wea Rev,1924,52(8):83.
[21]Prescott J A.Evaporation from a water surface in relation to solar radiation[J].Trans R Soc Sci Austr,1940(64):114-125.
[22]胡庆芳,杨大文,王银堂,等.?ngstr?m公式参数对ET0的影响及FAO建议值适用性评价[J].水科学进展,2010,21(5):644-652.Hu Qingfang,Yang Dawen,Wang Yintang,et al.Effects of?ngstr?m coefficients on ET0 estimation and the applicability of FAO recommended coefficient values in China[J].Advances in Water Science,2010,21(5):644-652.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[23]Paulescu M,Stefu N,Calinoiu D,et al.?ngstr?m-Prescott equation:Physical basis,empirical models and sensitivity analysis[J].Renewable&Sustainable Energy Reviews,2016(62):495-506.
[24]Wang C,Yue T,Fan Z.Solar radiation climatology calculation in China[J].Journal of Resources and Ecology,2014,5(2):132-138.
[25]左大康,王懿贤,陈建绥.中国地区太阳总輻射的空間分布特征[J].气象学报,1963(1):80-98.Zuo Dakang,Wang Yixian,Chen Jiansui.Characteristics of the distribution of total radiation in China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1963(1):80-98.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[26]王炳忠,张富国,李立贤.我国的太阳能资源及其计算[J].太阳能学报,1980(1):5-13.Wang Bingzhong,Zhang Fuguo,Li Lixian.Solar energy resources in China[J].Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica,1980(1):5-13.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[27]祝昌汉.再论总辐射的气候学计算方法(一)[J].南京气象学院学报,1982(1):15-24.Zhu Changhan.A further discussion on the climatological calculating method of total radiation[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,1982(1):15-24.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[28]祝昌汉.再论总辐射的气候学计算方法(二)[J].南京气象学院学报,1982(2):196-206.Zhu Changhan.A further discussion on the climatological calculating method of total radiation(Ⅱ)[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,1982(1):196-206.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[29]童宏良.我国蒸发力计算的气候学方法[J].南京气象学院学报,1989(1):19-33.Tong Hongliang.A climatic calculation method for the evaporation power in China[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,1989(1):19-33.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[30]陈玉民,郭国双.中国主要农作物需水量等值线图研究[M].北京:中国农业科技出版社,1993.
[31]翁笃鸣.试论总辐射的气候学计算方法[J].气象学报,1964(3):54-65.Wang Duming.Discussion on the climatological calculation method of total radiation[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1964(3):54-65.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[2]Aladenola O O,Madramootoo C A.Evaluation of solar radiation estimation methods for reference evapotranspiration estimation in Canada[J].Theoretical&Applied Climatology,2014,118(3):377-385.
[3]Liu Xiaoying,Mei Xurong,Li Yuzhong,et al.Calibration of the?ngstr?m-Prescott coefficients(a,b)under different time scales and their impacts in estimating global solar radiation in the Yellow River basin[J].Agricultural&Forest Meteorology,2015,149(3):697-710.
[4]Wu Yiping,Liu Shuguang,Yan Wende,et al.Climate change and consequences on the water cycle in the humid Xiangjiang River Basin,China[J].Stochastic Environmental Research&Risk Assessment,2016,30(1):1-11.
[5]Rezaei E E,Gaiser T,Siebert S,et al.Combined impacts of climate and nutrient fertilization on yields of pearl millet in Niger[J].European Journal of Agronomy,2014,55(2):77-88.
[6]Sabziparvar A A,Movahedi S,Asakereh H,et al.Geographical factors affecting variability of precipitation regime in Iran[J].Theoretical&Applied Climatology,2015,120(12):367-376.
[7]Allen R G,Pereira,L S,Raes D,et al.Crop Evapotranspiration-Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements[M].Rome:FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper56,1998.
[8]Mohammadi K,Khorasanizadeh H,Shamshirband S,et al.Influence of introducing various meteorological parameters to the?ngstr?m-Prescott model for estimation of global solar radiation[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2016,75(3):219.
[9]Benmouiza K,Cheknane A.Forecasting hourly global solar radiation using hybrid k-means and nonlinear autoregressive neural network models[J].Energy Conversion&Management,2013,75(5):561-569.
[10]毛洋洋,赵艳霞,张祎,等.五个常见日太阳总辐射模型在华北地区的有效性验证及分析[J].中国农业气象,2016,37(5):520-530.Mao Yangyang,Zhao Yanxia,Zhang Yi,et al.Validation and analysis of five general daily solar radiation estimation models used in Northern China[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2016,37(5):520-530.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[11]Samanta S,Patra P K,Banerjee S,et al.Generation of common coefficients to estimate global solar radiation over different locations of India[J].Theoretical&Applied Climatology,2018(2):1-11.
[12]Akino?lu B G,Ecevit A.Construction of a quadratic model using modified?ngstrom coefficients to estimate global solar radiation[J].Solar Energy,1990,45(2):85-92.
[13]Liu Xiaoying,Mei Xurong,Li Yuzhong,et al.Evaluation of temperature-based global solar radiation models in China[J].Agricultural&Forest Meteorology,2009,149(9):1433-1446.
[14]Bristow K L,Campbell G S.On the relationship between incoming solar radiation and daily maximum and minimum temperature[J].Agricultural&Forest Meteorology,1984,31(2):159-166.
[15]Thornton P E,Running S W.An improved algorithm for estimating incident daily solar radiation from measurements of temperature,humidity,and precipitation[J].Agricultural&Forest Meteorology,1999,93(4):211-28.
[16]钟强.青藏高原太阳总辐射的计算方法的讨论[J].高原气象,1986,5(3):197-210.Zhong Qiang.Disscussions in the climatological methods of calculating the global solar radiation over the Qinghai-Xizang plateau area[J].Plateau Meteorology,1986,5(3):197-210.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[17]李成方.西藏高原太阳总辐射的计算及其分布[J].西藏农业科技,1980(4):81-88.Li Chengfang.Calculation and distribution of total solar radiation in Tibet Plateau[J].Tibet Journal of Agricultural Sciences,1980(4):81-88.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[18]潘守文.青藏高原太阳总辐射的计算方法[C]//青藏高原气象科学实验文集(一).北京:科学出版社,1984:1-14.
[19]杜军.西藏农业气候资源区划[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.
[20]?ngstr?m A.Solar and terrestrial radiation 19[J].Mon Wea Rev,1924,52(8):83.
[21]Prescott J A.Evaporation from a water surface in relation to solar radiation[J].Trans R Soc Sci Austr,1940(64):114-125.
[22]胡庆芳,杨大文,王银堂,等.?ngstr?m公式参数对ET0的影响及FAO建议值适用性评价[J].水科学进展,2010,21(5):644-652.Hu Qingfang,Yang Dawen,Wang Yintang,et al.Effects of?ngstr?m coefficients on ET0 estimation and the applicability of FAO recommended coefficient values in China[J].Advances in Water Science,2010,21(5):644-652.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[23]Paulescu M,Stefu N,Calinoiu D,et al.?ngstr?m-Prescott equation:Physical basis,empirical models and sensitivity analysis[J].Renewable&Sustainable Energy Reviews,2016(62):495-506.
[24]Wang C,Yue T,Fan Z.Solar radiation climatology calculation in China[J].Journal of Resources and Ecology,2014,5(2):132-138.
[25]左大康,王懿贤,陈建绥.中国地区太阳总輻射的空間分布特征[J].气象学报,1963(1):80-98.Zuo Dakang,Wang Yixian,Chen Jiansui.Characteristics of the distribution of total radiation in China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1963(1):80-98.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[26]王炳忠,张富国,李立贤.我国的太阳能资源及其计算[J].太阳能学报,1980(1):5-13.Wang Bingzhong,Zhang Fuguo,Li Lixian.Solar energy resources in China[J].Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica,1980(1):5-13.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[27]祝昌汉.再论总辐射的气候学计算方法(一)[J].南京气象学院学报,1982(1):15-24.Zhu Changhan.A further discussion on the climatological calculating method of total radiation[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,1982(1):15-24.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[28]祝昌汉.再论总辐射的气候学计算方法(二)[J].南京气象学院学报,1982(2):196-206.Zhu Changhan.A further discussion on the climatological calculating method of total radiation(Ⅱ)[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,1982(1):196-206.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[29]童宏良.我国蒸发力计算的气候学方法[J].南京气象学院学报,1989(1):19-33.Tong Hongliang.A climatic calculation method for the evaporation power in China[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,1989(1):19-33.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[30]陈玉民,郭国双.中国主要农作物需水量等值线图研究[M].北京:中国农业科技出版社,1993.
[31]翁笃鸣.试论总辐射的气候学计算方法[J].气象学报,1964(3):54-65.Wang Duming.Discussion on the climatological calculation method of total radiation[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1964(3):54-65.(in Chinese with English abstract)