江苏省太湖流域梅雨与台风遭遇规律研究
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摘要
梅雨和台风是导致江苏省太湖地区洪涝灾害的主要气象原因,研究两者的遭遇规律对流域防洪排涝及水资源调度具有重要的意义。基于1954～2017年梅雨与台风的同步资料,研究两者的历年变化特征、影响时间、台风路径、雨量等,并统计分析64 a梅雨与台风遭遇的可能事件。结果表明:研究期内梅雨期长度及梅雨量年际分布不均,整体呈上升趋势,多年平均梅雨期长度和梅雨量分别为22.8 d和225.8 mm;百年一遇梅雨量为660.8 mm,50年一遇梅雨量为590.7 mm;梅雨遭遇的台风共有34场,遭遇的概率为14.1%,其中6场为"入梅"遭遇,20场为"正面"遭遇,8场为"出梅"遭遇。
Meiyu and typhoon are the main meteorological causes of flood disasters in Taihu Lake area of Jiangsu Province. It is of great significance to study the encounter regularity of them for flood control and drainage and water resources dispatch in the basin. Based on the synchronous data of Meiyu and typhoon from 1954 to 2017, the characteristics of their changes over the years, influencing time, typhoon track and rainfall were studied, and the possible events of Meiyu and typhoon in 64 years were analyzed. The results showed that the length of Meiyu period and the annual distribution of Meiyu amount were uneven, and the overall trend was upward. The average length of Meiyu period were 22.8 days and Meiyu amount were 225.8 mm, respectively; the once-in-a-century Meiyu amount was 660.8 mm, and the once-in-50 Meiyu amount was 590.7 mm; there were 34 typhoons encountered by Meiyu with a probability of 14.1%, of which 6 were Meiyu encounters and 20 were positive encounters, 8 encounters for out of plum.
Meiyu and typhoon are the main meteorological causes of flood disasters in Taihu Lake area of Jiangsu Province. It is of great significance to study the encounter regularity of them for flood control and drainage and water resources dispatch in the basin. Based on the synchronous data of Meiyu and typhoon from 1954 to 2017, the characteristics of their changes over the years, influencing time, typhoon track and rainfall were studied, and the possible events of Meiyu and typhoon in 64 years were analyzed. The results showed that the length of Meiyu period and the annual distribution of Meiyu amount were uneven, and the overall trend was upward. The average length of Meiyu period were 22.8 days and Meiyu amount were 225.8 mm, respectively; the once-in-a-century Meiyu amount was 660.8 mm, and the once-in-50 Meiyu amount was 590.7 mm; there were 34 typhoons encountered by Meiyu with a probability of 14.1%, of which 6 were Meiyu encounters and 20 were positive encounters, 8 encounters for out of plum.
引文
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[2]崔婷婷,王银堂,刘勇,等.影响太湖流域的台风演变规律分析[J].水文,2012,32(02):54-58.
[3]Krishna R,Sugi M.Baiu Rainfall Variability and Associated Monsoon Teleconnections[J].Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan,2001,79(3):851-860.
[4]Zhu T,Zhang D L.The impact of the storm-induced SSTcooling on hurricane intensity[J].Advances inAtmospheric Science,2006,23(1):14-22.
[5]李崇银,顾薇,潘静.梅雨与北极涛动及平流层环流异常的关联[J].地球物理学报,2008(06):1632-1641.
[6]玉芳.台风频数变化特征及其统计分布[D].中国海洋大学,2009.
[7]陈旭,李栋梁.新标准下江淮梅雨特征的分析[J].气象科学,2016,36(02):165-175.
[8]何诗秀,傅秀琴.梅雨和台风年际变化及其关系的研究[J].气象,1992(03):8-12+18.
[9]任金声.南海登陆热带气旋与江淮出梅[J].气象,1993(03):25-28.
[10]孙彭龄.浙江的梅雨和台风年际变化[J].浙江气象科技,1999(03):20-23.
[11]朱哲,钟中,哈瑶.江淮梅雨与梅雨期西北太平洋热带气旋的关系[J].气象科学,2017,37(04):522-528.
[12]陈永林,曹晓岗.热带气旋及相关天气系统对上海强梅雨的影响分析[J].热带气象学报,2006(04):326-330.
[13]胡四一,王宗志,王银堂,等.太湖流域台风与梅雨遭遇概率分析[J].中国科学:技术科学,2011,41(04):426-435.
[14]刘玉刚.太湖水质时空变化及其对流域降雨增加响应的数值模拟[D].暨南大学,2017.
[15]黄玉莹,夏霆,陈静,等.江苏省太湖流域河道外生态需水研究分析[J].人民珠江,2016,37(07):72-77.