考虑交互关系和风险偏好的企业R&D项目组合决策模型研究
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摘要
针对风险偏好者的决策模型缺乏风险因素的考量、风险规避者的模型相对保守、交互关系增加了项目组合决策复杂性等目前不同风险偏好下的R&D项目组合决策研究存在的不足,首先,分析交互关系的影响机理,并采用关联矩阵对交互关系进行度量。其次,提出R&D项目组合风险波动上界概念,依据风险偏好追求"高赢利"与风险规避者追求"低风险"的目标,给出满足不同风险偏好的R&D项目组合决策模型。最后,通过实例研究发现,与传统模型相比,本文提出的风险规避者决策模型可以在风险可控范围内,选择收益增加较高的项目组合;风险偏好者的决策模型能在追求"高赢利"项目组合的同时,加强局部项目的风险控制,减少组合失败可能性。
R&D project portfolio decision-making with different risk preferences faces multiple problem,e. g.,decision-making models for risk seekers do not consider the risk factors,models for risk averters are relatively conservative,and interdependences complicates project portfolio decision-making. In the face of these problems,this paper analyzes the impact mechanism of interdependence and develops a model to measure these effects based on dependent matrix. Then the conception of upper bound of R&D project portfolio risk fluctuation is proposed. The decision-making models of the R&D project portfolio with different risk preferences are built considering the goals of pursuing high returns for risk seekers and low risks for risk averters. Finally,a case study is presented. Compared with the traditional models,the proposed decision model for risk averters can select project portfolio that brings a higher benefits under well-controlled risks. Meanwhile,the model for risk seekers can pursue high returns and strengthen risk control for partial projects,reducing the project portfolio's possibility of failure.
R&D project portfolio decision-making with different risk preferences faces multiple problem,e. g.,decision-making models for risk seekers do not consider the risk factors,models for risk averters are relatively conservative,and interdependences complicates project portfolio decision-making. In the face of these problems,this paper analyzes the impact mechanism of interdependence and develops a model to measure these effects based on dependent matrix. Then the conception of upper bound of R&D project portfolio risk fluctuation is proposed. The decision-making models of the R&D project portfolio with different risk preferences are built considering the goals of pursuing high returns for risk seekers and low risks for risk averters. Finally,a case study is presented. Compared with the traditional models,the proposed decision model for risk averters can select project portfolio that brings a higher benefits under well-controlled risks. Meanwhile,the model for risk seekers can pursue high returns and strengthen risk control for partial projects,reducing the project portfolio's possibility of failure.
引文
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[3]HALL N G,LONG D Z,QI J,et al.Managing Underperformance Risk in Project Portfolio Selection[J].Operations Research,2015,63(3):660-675.
[4]于超,樊治平.考虑决策者后悔规避的风险投资项目选择方法[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(6):29-37.YU Chao,FAN Zhiping.Method for Venture Capital Project Selection Considering Decision Marker's Regret Aversion[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2016,24(6):29-37.
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[7]王景玫,郭鹏,赵静.R&D项目组合鲁棒性风险测度及选择模型研究[J].运筹与管理,2017(6):140-148.WANG Jingmei,GUO Peng,ZHAO Jing.Research on Measurement of Robustness Risk and Selection Model of R&D Project Portfolio[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2017(6):140-148.
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[10]杨颖,杨善林,胡小建.基于战略一致性的新产品开发项目组合选择[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014(04):964-970.YANG Ying,YANG Shanlin,HU Xiaojian.New Product Development Project Portfolio Selection Based on Strategic Fit[J].Systems EngineeringTheroty&Practice,2014(4):964-970.
[11]罗淑娟,白思俊,郭云涛.考虑交互与决策者偏好的项目组合改进蚁群优化算法研究[J].世界科技研究与发展.2016,38(3):681-687.LUO Shujuan,BAI Sijun,GUOYuntao.Improved Ant Colony Optimization Algorithm on Project Portfolio Selection Considering Interdependencies and Preferences Incorporation[J].World SciTech R&D,2016,38(3):681-687.
[12]SCHMIDT R L.A Model for R&D Project Selection with Combined Benefit,Outcome and Resource Interactions[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management,1993,40(4):403-410.
[13]GIROTRA K,TERWIESCH C,ULRICH K T.Valuing R&D Projects in A Portfolio:Evidence from the Pharmaceutical Industry[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2010,53(9):1452-1466.
[14]RUNGI M.Success Rate and Resource Consumption from Project Interdependencies[J].Industrial Management&Data Systems,2010,110(1):93-110.
[15]DICKINSON M W,THORNTON A C,GRAVES S.Technology Portfolio Management:Optimizing Interdependent Projects over Multiple Time Periods[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management.2002,48(4):518-527.
[16]KUCHTA D.A fuzzy Model for R&D Project Selection with Benefit,Outcome and Resource Interactions[J].Engineering Economist,2001,46(3):164-180.
[17]KILLEN C P.Evaluation of Project Interdependency Visualizations through Decision Scenario Experimentation[J].International Journal of Project Management,2013,31(6):804-816.
[18]管杜娟,郭鹏.基于脆性联系熵的项目组合脆性风险分析[J].管理学报,2015,12(10):1553-1561.GUAN Dujuan,GUO Peng.Brittleness Risk Analysis of Project Portfolio Based on Brittle Link Entropy[J]Chinese Journal of Management,2015,12(10):1553-1561.
[19]GUAN D,GUO P,HIPEL K W,et al.Risk reduction in A Project Portfolio[J].Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering,2017,26(1):3-22.
[20]KILLEN C P,CAI K.Understanding Project Interdependencies:the Role of Visual Representation,Culture and Process[J].International Journal of Project Management,2012,30(5):554-566.
[21]管杜娟,郭鹏.交互效应及其影响度量下的项目组合关系分类[J].软科学,2014(10):125-129.GUAN Dujuan,GUO Peng.Relationship Classification of Project Portfolio Based on The Measurement of Interaction Effects and Their Influences[J].Soft Science,2014(10):125-129.
[2]ZHANG Q,HUANG X,ZHANG C.A Mean-risk Index Model for Uncertain Capital Budgeting[J].Journal of the Operational Research Society,2015,66(5):761-770.
[3]HALL N G,LONG D Z,QI J,et al.Managing Underperformance Risk in Project Portfolio Selection[J].Operations Research,2015,63(3):660-675.
[4]于超,樊治平.考虑决策者后悔规避的风险投资项目选择方法[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(6):29-37.YU Chao,FAN Zhiping.Method for Venture Capital Project Selection Considering Decision Marker's Regret Aversion[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2016,24(6):29-37.
[5]胡支军,彭飞,李志霞.风险项目投资组合决策的贝叶斯评价与选择策略[J].中国管理科学,2017,25(2):30-39.HU Zhijun,PENG Fei,LI Zhixia.Bayesian Evaluation and Selection Strategies in Venture Project Portfolio Decision Analysis[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2017,25(2):30-39.
[6]HUANG X.Portfolio Selection with A New Definition of Risk[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2008,186(1):351-357.
[7]王景玫,郭鹏,赵静.R&D项目组合鲁棒性风险测度及选择模型研究[J].运筹与管理,2017(6):140-148.WANG Jingmei,GUO Peng,ZHAO Jing.Research on Measurement of Robustness Risk and Selection Model of R&D Project Portfolio[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2017(6):140-148.
[8]HALL N G,HERSHEY JC,KESSLER L G,et al.A model for Making Project Funding Decisions at the National Cancer Institute[J].Operations Research,1992,40(6):1040-1052.
[9]CARLSSON C.A Fuzzy Approach to R&D Project Portfolio Selection[J].International Journal of Approximate Reasoning,2007,44(2):93-105.
[10]杨颖,杨善林,胡小建.基于战略一致性的新产品开发项目组合选择[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014(04):964-970.YANG Ying,YANG Shanlin,HU Xiaojian.New Product Development Project Portfolio Selection Based on Strategic Fit[J].Systems EngineeringTheroty&Practice,2014(4):964-970.
[11]罗淑娟,白思俊,郭云涛.考虑交互与决策者偏好的项目组合改进蚁群优化算法研究[J].世界科技研究与发展.2016,38(3):681-687.LUO Shujuan,BAI Sijun,GUOYuntao.Improved Ant Colony Optimization Algorithm on Project Portfolio Selection Considering Interdependencies and Preferences Incorporation[J].World SciTech R&D,2016,38(3):681-687.
[12]SCHMIDT R L.A Model for R&D Project Selection with Combined Benefit,Outcome and Resource Interactions[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management,1993,40(4):403-410.
[13]GIROTRA K,TERWIESCH C,ULRICH K T.Valuing R&D Projects in A Portfolio:Evidence from the Pharmaceutical Industry[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2010,53(9):1452-1466.
[14]RUNGI M.Success Rate and Resource Consumption from Project Interdependencies[J].Industrial Management&Data Systems,2010,110(1):93-110.
[15]DICKINSON M W,THORNTON A C,GRAVES S.Technology Portfolio Management:Optimizing Interdependent Projects over Multiple Time Periods[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management.2002,48(4):518-527.
[16]KUCHTA D.A fuzzy Model for R&D Project Selection with Benefit,Outcome and Resource Interactions[J].Engineering Economist,2001,46(3):164-180.
[17]KILLEN C P.Evaluation of Project Interdependency Visualizations through Decision Scenario Experimentation[J].International Journal of Project Management,2013,31(6):804-816.
[18]管杜娟,郭鹏.基于脆性联系熵的项目组合脆性风险分析[J].管理学报,2015,12(10):1553-1561.GUAN Dujuan,GUO Peng.Brittleness Risk Analysis of Project Portfolio Based on Brittle Link Entropy[J]Chinese Journal of Management,2015,12(10):1553-1561.
[19]GUAN D,GUO P,HIPEL K W,et al.Risk reduction in A Project Portfolio[J].Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering,2017,26(1):3-22.
[20]KILLEN C P,CAI K.Understanding Project Interdependencies:the Role of Visual Representation,Culture and Process[J].International Journal of Project Management,2012,30(5):554-566.
[21]管杜娟,郭鹏.交互效应及其影响度量下的项目组合关系分类[J].软科学,2014(10):125-129.GUAN Dujuan,GUO Peng.Relationship Classification of Project Portfolio Based on The Measurement of Interaction Effects and Their Influences[J].Soft Science,2014(10):125-129.