国家园林县城省际分布格局演化及影响因素
|
摘要
针对中国城市分布格局研究方法上的不足,以国家园林县城这一特殊类型城市为例,采用探索性空间数据分析和不平衡指数等方法,刻画其数量省际分布格局的演化;综合运用逐步回归、地理加权回归和地理探测器模型,在省域尺度上探究其分布的影响因素及其空间异质性和交互作用。结果表明:(1)国家园林县城分布一直具有显著的全局和局部空间自相关性,所形成的空间异质性格局基本保持稳定,但数量在省际间的离散程度总体变大;(2)全社会固定资产投资、县城建成区绿地率、(自治)县旗数、地方一般公共预算收入是引致国家园林县城数量空间分异的显著性因素,其作用方向除后者外均为正向,作用强度以前者为强;(3)各因素的效应均存在明显的空间非平稳性,但其作用的空间分布模式互有区别;影响也并非相互独立,其间存在非线性增强型和双因子增强型两类交互作用,所产生的影响力均要大于单独作用时,其中县城建成区绿地率对其他因素的增强作用最为明显。
In view of the deficiencies in the researching methods of urban distribution pattern in China, taking national garden counties as a special example, using methods of ESDA and imbalanced index to characterize the evolution of the number of provinces in the distribution pattern; Stepwise regression model, GWR and GeoDetector are also be applied to explore the influencing factors of its distribution and its spatial heterogeneity and interaction on the provincial scale. The results show that:(1)The distribution of national garden counties has been characterized by significant global and local spatial autocorrelation. The spatial heterogeneity of the counties has remained stable, but the number of the counties has become more discrete among provinces as a whole.(2)Total investment in fixed assets, green space ratio in built-up area of county, number of(Autonomous)Counties/Banners and local general public budget revenue are the significant factors leading to the spatial differentiation of the number of national garden counties. In case of the direction affected, these factors are all positive except for the last one.(3)The effects of each factor demonstrate obvious spatial non-stationarity, but the spatial distribution patterns of their effects are different; The influence is also not independent, there are two kinds of interaction, including nonlinear enhancement and bi-factor enhancement, the influence of which is greater than that of factors acting alone, and green space ratio in built-up area of county has the most promoting effect on other factors.
In view of the deficiencies in the researching methods of urban distribution pattern in China, taking national garden counties as a special example, using methods of ESDA and imbalanced index to characterize the evolution of the number of provinces in the distribution pattern; Stepwise regression model, GWR and GeoDetector are also be applied to explore the influencing factors of its distribution and its spatial heterogeneity and interaction on the provincial scale. The results show that:(1)The distribution of national garden counties has been characterized by significant global and local spatial autocorrelation. The spatial heterogeneity of the counties has remained stable, but the number of the counties has become more discrete among provinces as a whole.(2)Total investment in fixed assets, green space ratio in built-up area of county, number of(Autonomous)Counties/Banners and local general public budget revenue are the significant factors leading to the spatial differentiation of the number of national garden counties. In case of the direction affected, these factors are all positive except for the last one.(3)The effects of each factor demonstrate obvious spatial non-stationarity, but the spatial distribution patterns of their effects are different; The influence is also not independent, there are two kinds of interaction, including nonlinear enhancement and bi-factor enhancement, the influence of which is greater than that of factors acting alone, and green space ratio in built-up area of county has the most promoting effect on other factors.
引文
[1] 鲍超,陈小杰.中国城市体系的空间格局研究评述与展望 [J].地理科学进展,2014,33(10):1300-1311.BAO C,CHEN X J.Review and prospect of research on the spatial pattern of China’s urban system [J].Progress in Geography,2014,33(10):1300-1311.
[2] 许学强,胡华颖,张军.我国城镇分布及其演变的几个特征 [J].经济地理,1983,3(3):205-212.XU X Q,HU H Y,ZHANG J.Several characteristics of urban distribution and its evolution in China [J].Economic Geography,1983,3(3):205-212.
[3] 叶大年,赫伟,徐文东,等.中国城市的对称分布 [J].中国科学(D辑),2001,31(7):608-616.YE D N,HE W,XU W D,et al.Symmetry distribution of cities in China [J].Science in China(Series D),2001,31(7):608-616.
[4] 闫小培,王玲.改革开放以来我国城市空间分布发展变化研究 [J].人文地理,1996,11(3):19-23.YAN X P,WANG L.A study of the changes of the spatial pattern of Chinese cities since the reform and open policy [J].Human Geography,1996,11(3):19-23.
[5] 金淑婷,李博,杨永春,等.中国城市分布特征及其影响因素 [J].地理研究,2015,34(7):1352-1366.JIN S T,LI B,YANG Y C,et al.The distribution of cities in China and its influencing factors [J].Geography Research,2015,34(7):1352-1366.
[6] 叶浩,濮励杰,张鹏.中国城市体系的空间分布格局及其演变 [J].地域研究与开发,2013,32(2):41-45.YE H,PU L J,ZHANG P.Spatial distribution pattern and its evolution of urban system in China [J].Areal Research and Development,2013,32(2):41-45.
[7] 叶浩,濮励杰,张鹏.中国城市空间分布的省际差异及其影响因子分析 [J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(12):159-164.YE H,PU L J,ZHANG P.Inter-provincial differences and its impact factors of urban spatial distribution in China [J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2012,22(12):159-164.
[8] 顾朝林,庞海峰.建国以来国家城市化空间过程研究 [J].地理科学,2009,29(1):10-14.GU C L,PANG H F.Evolution of Chinese urbanization spaces:kernel spatial approach [J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2009,29(1):10-14.
[9] 吴健生,刘浩,彭建,等.中国城市体系等级结构及其空间格局——基于DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据的实证 [J].地理学报,2014,69(6):759-770.WU J S,LIU H,PENG J,et al.Hierarchical structure and spatial pattern of China’s urban system:Evidence from DMSP/OLS nightlight data [J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(6):759-770.
[10] 管驰明,崔功豪.100多年来中国城市空间分布格局的时空演变研究 [J].地域研究与开发,2004,23(5):28-32.GUAN C M,CUI G H.Research on spatio-temporal distribution of Chinese cities in the past over 100 years [J].Areal Research and Development,2004,23(5):28-32.
[11] 杨国安,甘国辉.中国城镇体系空间分布特征及其变化 [J].地球信息科学,2004,6(3):12-18.YANG G A,GAN G H.Spatial characteristic and its change of urban system in China [J].Geo-Information Science,2004,6(3):12-18.
[12] 芮旸,唐蓓佩,王兴,等.国家园林城市时空演变特征及其影响机理 [J].地理研究,2018,37(1):20-36.RUI Y,TANG B P,WANG X,et al.The spatio-temporal evolutionary characteristics and the impact mechanism of national garden cities in China [J].Geography Research,2018,37(1):20-36.
[13] TOBLER W R.A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region [J].Economic Geography,1970,46(sup1):234-240.
[14] 马晓冬,朱传耿,马荣华,等.苏州地区城镇扩展的空间格局及其演化分析 [J].地理学报,2008,63(4):405-416.MA X D,ZHU C G,MA R H,et al.Urban spatial growth pattern and its evolution in Suzhou,Jiangsu province,China [J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2008,63(4):405-416.
[15] ANSELIN L,GETIS A.Spatial statistical analysis and geographic information systems [J].The Annals of Regional Science,1992,26(1):19-33.
[16] 邬建国.景观生态学——格局、过程、尺度与等级 [M].北京:高等教育出版社,2000:13-25.WU J G.Landscape ecology:Pattern,process,scale and hierarchy [M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2000:13-25.
[17] 宫宁,牛振国,齐伟,等.中国湿地变化的驱动力分析 [J].遥感学报,2016,20(2):172-183.GONG N,NIU Z G,QI W,et al.Driving forces of wetland change in China [J].Journal of Remote Sensing,2016,20(2):172-183.
[18] 王劲峰,徐成东.地理探测器:原理与展望 [J].地理学报,2017,72(1):116-134.WANG J F,XU C D.Geodetector:principle and prospective [J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(1):116-134.
[19] 康璟瑶,章锦河,胡欢,等.中国传统村落空间分布特征分析 [J].地理科学进展,2016,35(7):839-850.KANG J Y,ZHANG J H,HU H,et al.Analysis on the spatial distribution characteristics of Chinese traditional villages [J].Progress in Geography,2016,35(7):839-850.
[20] 冯亚芬,俞万源,雷汝林.广东省传统村落空间分布特征及影响因素研究 [J].地理科学,2017,37(2):236-243.FENG Y F,YU W Y,LEI R L.Spatial distribution features and controlling factors of traditional villages in Guangdong province [J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(2):236-243.
[21] 武鹏,李同昇,李卫民.县域农村贫困化空间分异及其影响因素——以陕西山阳县为例 [J].地理研究,2018,37(3):593-606.WU P,LI T S,LI W M.Spatial differentiation and influencing factors analysis of rural poverty at county scale:a case study of Shanyang county in Shaanxi province,China [J].Geography Research,2018,37(3):593-606.
[22] 税伟,杜勇,陈毅萍,等.基于地理加权回归的茶叶种植专业化空间格局及影响因素——以福建省安溪县为例[J].应用生态学报,2017,28(4):1298-1308.SHUI W,DU Y,CHEN Y P,et al.Spatial patterns and influence factors of specialization in tea cultivation based on geographically weighted regression model:s case study of Anxi county of Fujian province,China [J].Journal of Applied Ecology,2017,28(4):1298-1308.
[23] 龚箭,吴清,刘大均.中国优秀旅游城市空间分异及影响机理研究 [J].人文地理,2014,29(2):150-155.GONG J,WU Q,LIU D J.Study on the spatial variation and impact mechanism of excellent tourism cities in China [J].Human Geography,2014,29(2):150-155.
[24] 吴佳雨,潘欢,杜雁.中国历史园林遗产时空演变特征及其影响因素 [J].人文地理,2016,31(1):50-56.WU J Y,PAN H,DU Y.Spatio-temporal characteristics and impacting factors of historic gardens in China [J].Human Geography,2016,31(1):50-56.
[25] PáEZ A,UCHIDA T,MIYAMOTO K.A general framework for estimation and inference of geographically weighted regression models:1.location-specific kernel bandwidths and a test for locational heterogeneity [J].Environment and Planning A,2002,34(4):733-754.
[26] BRUNSDON C,FOTHERINGHAM S,CHARLTON M.Geographically weighted regression [J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society:Series D (The Statistician),2017,47(3):431-443.
[27] 瞿明凯,李卫东,张传荣,等.地理加权回归及其在土壤和环境科学上的应用前景 [J].土壤,2014,46(1):15-22.QU M K,LI W D,ZHANG G R,et al.Geographically weighted regression and its application prospect in soil and environmental sciences [J].Soils,2014,46(1):15-22.
[2] 许学强,胡华颖,张军.我国城镇分布及其演变的几个特征 [J].经济地理,1983,3(3):205-212.XU X Q,HU H Y,ZHANG J.Several characteristics of urban distribution and its evolution in China [J].Economic Geography,1983,3(3):205-212.
[3] 叶大年,赫伟,徐文东,等.中国城市的对称分布 [J].中国科学(D辑),2001,31(7):608-616.YE D N,HE W,XU W D,et al.Symmetry distribution of cities in China [J].Science in China(Series D),2001,31(7):608-616.
[4] 闫小培,王玲.改革开放以来我国城市空间分布发展变化研究 [J].人文地理,1996,11(3):19-23.YAN X P,WANG L.A study of the changes of the spatial pattern of Chinese cities since the reform and open policy [J].Human Geography,1996,11(3):19-23.
[5] 金淑婷,李博,杨永春,等.中国城市分布特征及其影响因素 [J].地理研究,2015,34(7):1352-1366.JIN S T,LI B,YANG Y C,et al.The distribution of cities in China and its influencing factors [J].Geography Research,2015,34(7):1352-1366.
[6] 叶浩,濮励杰,张鹏.中国城市体系的空间分布格局及其演变 [J].地域研究与开发,2013,32(2):41-45.YE H,PU L J,ZHANG P.Spatial distribution pattern and its evolution of urban system in China [J].Areal Research and Development,2013,32(2):41-45.
[7] 叶浩,濮励杰,张鹏.中国城市空间分布的省际差异及其影响因子分析 [J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(12):159-164.YE H,PU L J,ZHANG P.Inter-provincial differences and its impact factors of urban spatial distribution in China [J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2012,22(12):159-164.
[8] 顾朝林,庞海峰.建国以来国家城市化空间过程研究 [J].地理科学,2009,29(1):10-14.GU C L,PANG H F.Evolution of Chinese urbanization spaces:kernel spatial approach [J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2009,29(1):10-14.
[9] 吴健生,刘浩,彭建,等.中国城市体系等级结构及其空间格局——基于DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据的实证 [J].地理学报,2014,69(6):759-770.WU J S,LIU H,PENG J,et al.Hierarchical structure and spatial pattern of China’s urban system:Evidence from DMSP/OLS nightlight data [J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(6):759-770.
[10] 管驰明,崔功豪.100多年来中国城市空间分布格局的时空演变研究 [J].地域研究与开发,2004,23(5):28-32.GUAN C M,CUI G H.Research on spatio-temporal distribution of Chinese cities in the past over 100 years [J].Areal Research and Development,2004,23(5):28-32.
[11] 杨国安,甘国辉.中国城镇体系空间分布特征及其变化 [J].地球信息科学,2004,6(3):12-18.YANG G A,GAN G H.Spatial characteristic and its change of urban system in China [J].Geo-Information Science,2004,6(3):12-18.
[12] 芮旸,唐蓓佩,王兴,等.国家园林城市时空演变特征及其影响机理 [J].地理研究,2018,37(1):20-36.RUI Y,TANG B P,WANG X,et al.The spatio-temporal evolutionary characteristics and the impact mechanism of national garden cities in China [J].Geography Research,2018,37(1):20-36.
[13] TOBLER W R.A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region [J].Economic Geography,1970,46(sup1):234-240.
[14] 马晓冬,朱传耿,马荣华,等.苏州地区城镇扩展的空间格局及其演化分析 [J].地理学报,2008,63(4):405-416.MA X D,ZHU C G,MA R H,et al.Urban spatial growth pattern and its evolution in Suzhou,Jiangsu province,China [J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2008,63(4):405-416.
[15] ANSELIN L,GETIS A.Spatial statistical analysis and geographic information systems [J].The Annals of Regional Science,1992,26(1):19-33.
[16] 邬建国.景观生态学——格局、过程、尺度与等级 [M].北京:高等教育出版社,2000:13-25.WU J G.Landscape ecology:Pattern,process,scale and hierarchy [M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2000:13-25.
[17] 宫宁,牛振国,齐伟,等.中国湿地变化的驱动力分析 [J].遥感学报,2016,20(2):172-183.GONG N,NIU Z G,QI W,et al.Driving forces of wetland change in China [J].Journal of Remote Sensing,2016,20(2):172-183.
[18] 王劲峰,徐成东.地理探测器:原理与展望 [J].地理学报,2017,72(1):116-134.WANG J F,XU C D.Geodetector:principle and prospective [J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(1):116-134.
[19] 康璟瑶,章锦河,胡欢,等.中国传统村落空间分布特征分析 [J].地理科学进展,2016,35(7):839-850.KANG J Y,ZHANG J H,HU H,et al.Analysis on the spatial distribution characteristics of Chinese traditional villages [J].Progress in Geography,2016,35(7):839-850.
[20] 冯亚芬,俞万源,雷汝林.广东省传统村落空间分布特征及影响因素研究 [J].地理科学,2017,37(2):236-243.FENG Y F,YU W Y,LEI R L.Spatial distribution features and controlling factors of traditional villages in Guangdong province [J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(2):236-243.
[21] 武鹏,李同昇,李卫民.县域农村贫困化空间分异及其影响因素——以陕西山阳县为例 [J].地理研究,2018,37(3):593-606.WU P,LI T S,LI W M.Spatial differentiation and influencing factors analysis of rural poverty at county scale:a case study of Shanyang county in Shaanxi province,China [J].Geography Research,2018,37(3):593-606.
[22] 税伟,杜勇,陈毅萍,等.基于地理加权回归的茶叶种植专业化空间格局及影响因素——以福建省安溪县为例[J].应用生态学报,2017,28(4):1298-1308.SHUI W,DU Y,CHEN Y P,et al.Spatial patterns and influence factors of specialization in tea cultivation based on geographically weighted regression model:s case study of Anxi county of Fujian province,China [J].Journal of Applied Ecology,2017,28(4):1298-1308.
[23] 龚箭,吴清,刘大均.中国优秀旅游城市空间分异及影响机理研究 [J].人文地理,2014,29(2):150-155.GONG J,WU Q,LIU D J.Study on the spatial variation and impact mechanism of excellent tourism cities in China [J].Human Geography,2014,29(2):150-155.
[24] 吴佳雨,潘欢,杜雁.中国历史园林遗产时空演变特征及其影响因素 [J].人文地理,2016,31(1):50-56.WU J Y,PAN H,DU Y.Spatio-temporal characteristics and impacting factors of historic gardens in China [J].Human Geography,2016,31(1):50-56.
[25] PáEZ A,UCHIDA T,MIYAMOTO K.A general framework for estimation and inference of geographically weighted regression models:1.location-specific kernel bandwidths and a test for locational heterogeneity [J].Environment and Planning A,2002,34(4):733-754.
[26] BRUNSDON C,FOTHERINGHAM S,CHARLTON M.Geographically weighted regression [J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society:Series D (The Statistician),2017,47(3):431-443.
[27] 瞿明凯,李卫东,张传荣,等.地理加权回归及其在土壤和环境科学上的应用前景 [J].土壤,2014,46(1):15-22.QU M K,LI W D,ZHANG G R,et al.Geographically weighted regression and its application prospect in soil and environmental sciences [J].Soils,2014,46(1):15-22.