基于证据权法的公路路基岩溶塌陷危险性评价
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摘要
将证据权模型应用在公路路基岩溶发育强度分区中,在工程作用下岩溶强发育区易发生岩溶塌陷。介绍了证据权模型的方法。在丹霞枢纽互通区域,应用Arc GIS将研究区划分为5 m×5 m的栅格,考虑地层岩性、地下水距地面距离、顶板厚度、距断层距离4个证据因子,然后进行证据因子优选,通过叠加分析,得出岩溶发育强度的后验概率,并进行条件独立性检验,利用CAPP曲线确定阈值将后验概率分区。应用ROC曲线进行预测的精度评价,预测正确概率为66. 2%。最后结果表明,证据权模型应用在公路路基岩溶方面可行。
The weights of evidence model is applied to the subdivision of highway subgrade which the karst is strongly developed. Karst collapse is easy to occur in areas with active engineering activities and strong karst development. Weights of evidence method is introduced. In the interchange area of Danxia Hub,ArcGIS is used to divide the study area into a grid of 5 m × 5 m. Including of the lithology,the distance from groundwater to the ground,the thickness of the roof,and the distance from the fault,four evidential factors are selected and then optimized. Through the overlay analysis,the posterior probability of karst-development intensity was obtained,and the conditional independence test was performed. The CAPP( Cumulative AreaPosterior Probability) curve was used to determine the threshold to partition the posterior probability. The ROC( Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve was used to estimate the accuracy of the prediction. The correct probability of prediction was 66. 2%. The final result shows that the weights of evidence model is feasible in the application of karst in highway subgrade.
The weights of evidence model is applied to the subdivision of highway subgrade which the karst is strongly developed. Karst collapse is easy to occur in areas with active engineering activities and strong karst development. Weights of evidence method is introduced. In the interchange area of Danxia Hub,ArcGIS is used to divide the study area into a grid of 5 m × 5 m. Including of the lithology,the distance from groundwater to the ground,the thickness of the roof,and the distance from the fault,four evidential factors are selected and then optimized. Through the overlay analysis,the posterior probability of karst-development intensity was obtained,and the conditional independence test was performed. The CAPP( Cumulative AreaPosterior Probability) curve was used to determine the threshold to partition the posterior probability. The ROC( Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve was used to estimate the accuracy of the prediction. The correct probability of prediction was 66. 2%. The final result shows that the weights of evidence model is feasible in the application of karst in highway subgrade.
引文
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[9]李光辉,潘懋,杨志双,等.基于灰色聚类法的鞍山城区岩溶塌陷危险性区划[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),2006,36(增刊):75-79.LI Guanghui,PAN Mao,YANG Zhishuang,et al.Karst collapse hazard zonation based on grey clustering method in the city zone of Anshan[J]. Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition),2006,36(S):75-79.
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[11]周国清,陈昆华,何素楠,等.基于逻辑回归模型的来宾市岩溶塌陷敏感性评价[J].安全与环境工程,2014,21(6):36-40.ZHOU Guoqing,CHEN Kunhua,HE Sunan,et al.Study on karst collapse susceptibility assessment based on logistic regression model:a case study of Labin City[J]. Safety and Environmental Engineering,2014,21(6):36-40.
[12]赵增玉,潘懋,梁河.二值证据权(Wofe)模型岩溶塌陷区划研究[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2010,46(4):594-600.ZHAO Zengyu,PAN Mao,LIANG He. Binary weights of evidence(Wofe)modeling and its application to zonation of karst collapse[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2010,46(4):594-600.
[13] BONHAM-CARTER G F, AGTERBERG F P,WRIGHT D F. Integration of geological datasets for gold exploration in Nova Scotia[J]. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing,1988,54(11):1585-1592.
[14] FREDERIK P,AGTERBERG. Combining indicator patterns in weights of evidence modeling for resource evaluation[J]. Nonrenewable Resources. 1992,1(1):39-50.
[15] EMMANUEL JOHN M,CARRANZA. Weights of evidence modeling of mineral potential:a case study using small number of prospects,Abra,Philippines[J]. Natural Resources Research,2004,13(3):173-187.
[16]范强,巨能攀,向喜琼,等.证据权法在滑坡易发性分区中的应用—以贵州桐梓河流域为例[J].灾害学,2015,30(1):124-129.FAN Qiang,JU Nengpan,XIANG Xiqiong, et al.Application of weights of evidence method in landslide susceptibility zoning-acase study on Tongzi river basin in Guizhou[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,2015,30(1):124-129.
[17] BOLENEUS D E,RAINES G L,CAUSEY J D.Assessment method for epithermal gold deposits in northeast Washington State using weights of evidence GIS modeling[Open-File Report 01-501,USGS][R]. 2001.
[18]秦喜文,张树清,李晓峰,等.基于证据权重法的丹顶鹤栖息地适宜性评价[J].生态学报,2009,29(3):1074-1082.QIN Xiwen,ZHANG Shuqing,LI Xiaofeng, et al.Assessment of red-crowned crane’s habitat suitability based on weights of evidence[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2009,29(3):1074-1082.
[19] HANLEY J A,MCNEIL B J. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve[J]. Radiology,1982,143(1):29-36.
[20]付圣,陈丽霞,黎丰收,等.鄂西南山区小区域大比例尺滑坡灾害易发性及其精度评价[J].山地学报,2017,35(4):517-526.FU Sheng,CHEN Lixia,LI Fengshou,et al. Large scale landslides susceptibility and accuracy assessment in mountainous counties[J]. Mountain Research,2017,35(4):517-526.
[21] CHENG Qiuming,AGTERBERG F P. Fuzzy weights of evidence method and its application in mineral potential mapping[J]. Natural Resources Research,1999,8(1):27-36.
[2]雷明堂.地理信息系统(GIS)在岩溶塌陷评价中的应用[J].中国岩溶,1994,13(4):351-356.LEI Mingtang. Application of GIS to evaluation of karst collapse[J]. Carsologica Sinica,1994,13(4):351-356.
[3]曾斌,杨木易,邵长杰,等.基于层次分析法的杭长高速岩溶塌陷易发性评价[J].安全与环境工程,2018,25(1):29-38.ZENG Bin,YANG Muyi,SHAO Changjie,et al.Susceptibility assessment of karst collapse of Hangchang expressway projects based on analytic hierarchy process[J]. Safety and Environmental Engineering,2018,25(1):29-38.
[4]王恒恒,张发旺,郭纯青,等.基于层次分析法的城市岩溶塌陷危险性评价—以武汉市南部为例[J].中国岩溶,2016,35(6):667-673.WANG Hengheng,ZHANG Fawang,GUO Chunqing,et al. Urban karst collapse hazard assessment based on analytic hierarchy process:An example of southern Wuhan City[J]. Carsologica Sinica,2016,35(6):667-673.
[5]金艳珠,谈树成,虎雄岗,等.基于层次分析法与GIS相结合的岩溶塌陷地质灾害易发性分区评估——以云南省师宗县为例[J].热带地理,2012,32(2):173-178.JIN Yanzhu,TAN Shucheng,HU Xionggang,et al.Geo-hazard susceptibility zoning evaluation of karst collapse based on the combination of AHP and GIS:a case study of Shizong, Yunnan[J]. Tropical Geography,2012,32(2):173-178.
[6]周国清,何素楠,陈昆华,等.模糊层次分析法对岩溶塌陷易发程度的评估—以广西来宾市吉利村为例[J].城市勘测,2013(5):155-159.ZHOU Guoqing,HE Sunan,CHEN Kunhua,et al.FAHP to evaluate prone degree of karst collapse:a case study of Laibin,Jili in Guangxi[J]. Urban Geotechnical Investigation&Surveying,2013(5):155-159.
[7]全望永,方星.铜陵小街地区岩溶塌陷模糊综合评判[J].中国岩溶,1992,11(4):297-306.QUAN Wangyong,FANG Xing. The comprehensive fuzzy evaluation of karst collapse in Xiaojie of Tongling,Anhui Province[J]. Carsologica Sinica,1992,11(4):297-306.
[8]武运泊,王运生,曹文正.基于AHP—模糊综合评判的岩溶塌陷危险性评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2015,26(1):43-48.WU Yunbo,WANG Yunsheng,CAO Wenzheng. Risk evaluation of karst collapse based on AHP&fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2015,26(1):43-48.
[9]李光辉,潘懋,杨志双,等.基于灰色聚类法的鞍山城区岩溶塌陷危险性区划[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),2006,36(增刊):75-79.LI Guanghui,PAN Mao,YANG Zhishuang,et al.Karst collapse hazard zonation based on grey clustering method in the city zone of Anshan[J]. Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition),2006,36(S):75-79.
[10]贺玉龙,杨立中,黄涛.人工神经网络在岩溶塌陷中的应用研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1999,10(4):86-90.HE Yulong,YANG Lizhong,HUANG Tao. Research on application of artificial neural network in the prediction of karst collapse[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,1999,10(4):86-90.
[11]周国清,陈昆华,何素楠,等.基于逻辑回归模型的来宾市岩溶塌陷敏感性评价[J].安全与环境工程,2014,21(6):36-40.ZHOU Guoqing,CHEN Kunhua,HE Sunan,et al.Study on karst collapse susceptibility assessment based on logistic regression model:a case study of Labin City[J]. Safety and Environmental Engineering,2014,21(6):36-40.
[12]赵增玉,潘懋,梁河.二值证据权(Wofe)模型岩溶塌陷区划研究[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2010,46(4):594-600.ZHAO Zengyu,PAN Mao,LIANG He. Binary weights of evidence(Wofe)modeling and its application to zonation of karst collapse[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2010,46(4):594-600.
[13] BONHAM-CARTER G F, AGTERBERG F P,WRIGHT D F. Integration of geological datasets for gold exploration in Nova Scotia[J]. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing,1988,54(11):1585-1592.
[14] FREDERIK P,AGTERBERG. Combining indicator patterns in weights of evidence modeling for resource evaluation[J]. Nonrenewable Resources. 1992,1(1):39-50.
[15] EMMANUEL JOHN M,CARRANZA. Weights of evidence modeling of mineral potential:a case study using small number of prospects,Abra,Philippines[J]. Natural Resources Research,2004,13(3):173-187.
[16]范强,巨能攀,向喜琼,等.证据权法在滑坡易发性分区中的应用—以贵州桐梓河流域为例[J].灾害学,2015,30(1):124-129.FAN Qiang,JU Nengpan,XIANG Xiqiong, et al.Application of weights of evidence method in landslide susceptibility zoning-acase study on Tongzi river basin in Guizhou[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,2015,30(1):124-129.
[17] BOLENEUS D E,RAINES G L,CAUSEY J D.Assessment method for epithermal gold deposits in northeast Washington State using weights of evidence GIS modeling[Open-File Report 01-501,USGS][R]. 2001.
[18]秦喜文,张树清,李晓峰,等.基于证据权重法的丹顶鹤栖息地适宜性评价[J].生态学报,2009,29(3):1074-1082.QIN Xiwen,ZHANG Shuqing,LI Xiaofeng, et al.Assessment of red-crowned crane’s habitat suitability based on weights of evidence[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2009,29(3):1074-1082.
[19] HANLEY J A,MCNEIL B J. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve[J]. Radiology,1982,143(1):29-36.
[20]付圣,陈丽霞,黎丰收,等.鄂西南山区小区域大比例尺滑坡灾害易发性及其精度评价[J].山地学报,2017,35(4):517-526.FU Sheng,CHEN Lixia,LI Fengshou,et al. Large scale landslides susceptibility and accuracy assessment in mountainous counties[J]. Mountain Research,2017,35(4):517-526.
[21] CHENG Qiuming,AGTERBERG F P. Fuzzy weights of evidence method and its application in mineral potential mapping[J]. Natural Resources Research,1999,8(1):27-36.