产业结构差异背景下城镇化的生态效应研究——基于非线性视角
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摘要
基于环境库兹涅茨假说,采用2001—2014年我国各省的面板数据,建立面板平滑转换回归模型,实证分析产业结构、金融发展和城镇化水平对我国地区生态环境污染的非线性影响,探讨如何在区域产业结构差异的背景下有针对性地推进绿色城镇化。研究结果表明,当工业化水平较低时,城镇化水平每提高1%,环境压力下降0.548 6%,推进城镇化可有效遏制生态环境污染。随着工业化水平的提高,推进城镇化转而对环境污染产生促进作用,城镇化水平每提高1%,生态环境压力提高1.383 2%。金融发展、工业化、研发投入以及能源消费的增加会造成环境污染,而提升人力资本能够显著降低环境污染。最后,从模型设定的视角对实证结果进行稳健性检验,验证了结论的稳健性。
This paper, based on environmental Kuznets hypothesis, uses China's provincial panel data from 2001 to 2014 to establish panel smooth transition regression model, which is used to analyze the non-linear influence of industrial structure, financial development and urbanization level on eco-environmental pollution, and to discuss how to push green urbanization under variable regional industrial structures. Urbanization level rises by 1%, the environmental pressure falls by 0.548 6% at a lower industrialization, implying that urbanization may effectively suppress eco-environmental pollution. As industrialization level develops, urbanization level rises by 1%, the environmental pressure increases by 1.383 2%. Financial development, industrialization, and research and development input and energy consumption increment will worsen environmental pollution, which can be predominantly decreased by raising human capital. This paper verifies of the model stability.
This paper, based on environmental Kuznets hypothesis, uses China's provincial panel data from 2001 to 2014 to establish panel smooth transition regression model, which is used to analyze the non-linear influence of industrial structure, financial development and urbanization level on eco-environmental pollution, and to discuss how to push green urbanization under variable regional industrial structures. Urbanization level rises by 1%, the environmental pressure falls by 0.548 6% at a lower industrialization, implying that urbanization may effectively suppress eco-environmental pollution. As industrialization level develops, urbanization level rises by 1%, the environmental pressure increases by 1.383 2%. Financial development, industrialization, and research and development input and energy consumption increment will worsen environmental pollution, which can be predominantly decreased by raising human capital. This paper verifies of the model stability.
引文
林美顺, 2017. 清洁能源消费、 环境治理与中国经济可持续增长[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 34(12): 3- 21.
刘满凤, 谢晗进, 2017. 我国工业化与城镇化的环境经济集聚双门槛效应分析[J]. 管理评论, 29(10): 21- 33.
刘渝琳, 温怀德, 2007. 经济增长下的FDI、环境污染损失与人力资本[J]. 世界经济研究 (11): 48- 55.
刘玉光, 杨新铭, 王博, 2013. 金融发展与中国城乡收入差距形成: 基于分省面板数据的实证检验[J]. 南开经济研究(5): 50- 59.
马海良, 王若梅, 庞庆华, 2015. 中国城镇化进程中工业废水污染排放分析[J]. 生态经济, 31(11): 14- 18.
商桃桃, 胡石元, 唐旭, 2017. 2005—2015年中国人口与土地城镇化耦合协调的时空特征研究[J]. 资源与产业, 19(6): 8- 16.
宋丽丽, 白中科, 2017. 煤炭资源型城市生态风险评价及预测: 以鄂尔多斯市为例[J]. 资源与产业, 19(5): 15- 22.
王会, 王奇, 2011. 中国城镇化与环境污染排放: 基于投入产出的分析[J]. 中国人口科学(5): 57- 66.
王敏, 黄滢, 2015. 中国的环境污染与经济增长[J]. 经济学, 14(2): 557- 578.
谢锐, 陈严, 韩峰, 等, 2018. 新型城镇化对城市生态环境质量的影响及时空效应[J]. 管理评论, 30(1): 230- 241.
徐明伟, 徐鑫, 解其昌, 2018. 普惠金融在绿色生态发展中的传递作用[J]. 山东社会科学 (3): 176- 186.
张引, 杨庆媛, 闵婕, 2016. 重庆市新型城镇化质量与生态环境承载力耦合分析[J]. 地理学报, 71(5): 817- 828.
张云峰, 陈洪全, 2011. 江苏沿海城镇化与生态环境协调发展量化分析[J]. 中国人口?资源与环境, 21(S1): 113- 116.
张赞, 2006. 中国工业化发展水平与环境质量的关系[J]. 财经科学(2): 47- 54.
COLLETAZ G, HURLIN C, 2006. Threshold effects of the public capital productivity: an international panel smooth transition approach[J]. Orléans: University of Orléans.
DIETZ T, ROSA E A, 1994. Rethinking the environmental impacts of population, affluence and technology[J]. Human Ecology Review(1): 277- 300.
FANG C L, WANG J, 2013. A theoretical analysis of interactive coercing effects between urbanization and eco-environment[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 23(2): 147- 162.
GONZáLEZ A, TERASVIRTA T, DIJK D V, 2005. Panel smooth transition regression models[R]. Sydney: University of Technology Sydney.
GROSSMAN G M, KRUEGER A B, 1991. Environmental impacts of a North American free trade agreement[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing, 8(2): 223- 250.
HANSEN B E, 1999. Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: estimation, testing, and inference[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 93(2): 345- 368.
KIJIMA M, NISHIDE K, OHYAMA A, 2010. Economic models for the Environmental Kuznets Curve: a survey[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 34(7): 1187- 1201.
LI T T, WANG Y, ZHAO D T, 2016. Environmental Kuznets Curve in China: new evidence from dynamic panel analysis[J]. Energy Policy, 91(2): 138- 147.
WAN G H, WANG C, 2014. Unprecedented urbanization in Asia and its impacts on the environment[J]. Australian Economic Review, 47(3): 378- 385.
WANG Y, HAN R, KUBOTA J, 2016. Is there an Environmental Kuznets Curve for SO2 emissions? a semi-parametric panel data analysis for China[J]. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 54: 1182- 1188.
WANG Y, ZHANG X, KUBOTA J, et al, 2015. A semi-parametric panel data analysis on the urbanization-carbon emissions nexus for OECD countries[J]. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 48: 704- 709.
ZHAO Y B, WANG S J, 2015. The relationship between urbanization, economic growth and energy consumption in China: an econometric perspective analysis[J]. Sustainability, 7(5): 5609- 5627.
刘满凤, 谢晗进, 2017. 我国工业化与城镇化的环境经济集聚双门槛效应分析[J]. 管理评论, 29(10): 21- 33.
刘渝琳, 温怀德, 2007. 经济增长下的FDI、环境污染损失与人力资本[J]. 世界经济研究 (11): 48- 55.
刘玉光, 杨新铭, 王博, 2013. 金融发展与中国城乡收入差距形成: 基于分省面板数据的实证检验[J]. 南开经济研究(5): 50- 59.
马海良, 王若梅, 庞庆华, 2015. 中国城镇化进程中工业废水污染排放分析[J]. 生态经济, 31(11): 14- 18.
商桃桃, 胡石元, 唐旭, 2017. 2005—2015年中国人口与土地城镇化耦合协调的时空特征研究[J]. 资源与产业, 19(6): 8- 16.
宋丽丽, 白中科, 2017. 煤炭资源型城市生态风险评价及预测: 以鄂尔多斯市为例[J]. 资源与产业, 19(5): 15- 22.
王会, 王奇, 2011. 中国城镇化与环境污染排放: 基于投入产出的分析[J]. 中国人口科学(5): 57- 66.
王敏, 黄滢, 2015. 中国的环境污染与经济增长[J]. 经济学, 14(2): 557- 578.
谢锐, 陈严, 韩峰, 等, 2018. 新型城镇化对城市生态环境质量的影响及时空效应[J]. 管理评论, 30(1): 230- 241.
徐明伟, 徐鑫, 解其昌, 2018. 普惠金融在绿色生态发展中的传递作用[J]. 山东社会科学 (3): 176- 186.
张引, 杨庆媛, 闵婕, 2016. 重庆市新型城镇化质量与生态环境承载力耦合分析[J]. 地理学报, 71(5): 817- 828.
张云峰, 陈洪全, 2011. 江苏沿海城镇化与生态环境协调发展量化分析[J]. 中国人口?资源与环境, 21(S1): 113- 116.
张赞, 2006. 中国工业化发展水平与环境质量的关系[J]. 财经科学(2): 47- 54.
COLLETAZ G, HURLIN C, 2006. Threshold effects of the public capital productivity: an international panel smooth transition approach[J]. Orléans: University of Orléans.
DIETZ T, ROSA E A, 1994. Rethinking the environmental impacts of population, affluence and technology[J]. Human Ecology Review(1): 277- 300.
FANG C L, WANG J, 2013. A theoretical analysis of interactive coercing effects between urbanization and eco-environment[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 23(2): 147- 162.
GONZáLEZ A, TERASVIRTA T, DIJK D V, 2005. Panel smooth transition regression models[R]. Sydney: University of Technology Sydney.
GROSSMAN G M, KRUEGER A B, 1991. Environmental impacts of a North American free trade agreement[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing, 8(2): 223- 250.
HANSEN B E, 1999. Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: estimation, testing, and inference[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 93(2): 345- 368.
KIJIMA M, NISHIDE K, OHYAMA A, 2010. Economic models for the Environmental Kuznets Curve: a survey[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 34(7): 1187- 1201.
LI T T, WANG Y, ZHAO D T, 2016. Environmental Kuznets Curve in China: new evidence from dynamic panel analysis[J]. Energy Policy, 91(2): 138- 147.
WAN G H, WANG C, 2014. Unprecedented urbanization in Asia and its impacts on the environment[J]. Australian Economic Review, 47(3): 378- 385.
WANG Y, HAN R, KUBOTA J, 2016. Is there an Environmental Kuznets Curve for SO2 emissions? a semi-parametric panel data analysis for China[J]. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 54: 1182- 1188.
WANG Y, ZHANG X, KUBOTA J, et al, 2015. A semi-parametric panel data analysis on the urbanization-carbon emissions nexus for OECD countries[J]. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 48: 704- 709.
ZHAO Y B, WANG S J, 2015. The relationship between urbanization, economic growth and energy consumption in China: an econometric perspective analysis[J]. Sustainability, 7(5): 5609- 5627.