三种基于均生函数的统计模型在厄尔尼诺预测中的应用
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摘要
为了探究厄尔尼诺的预测方法,提高其预报准确度与预报时效,本文基于均生函数的基本原理,在普通均生函数模型中分别加入气候序列的本征模函数和预报因子变量,构建了基于EEMD(Ensemble EmpiricalModeDecomposition)的均生函数模型和多变量均生函数模型;并应用三种方案对NINO3区海温指数进行了预报试验。结果表明,两种改进模型对厄尔尼诺的预报效果好于普通均生函数模型,是提高预报准确度的有效手段;同时,利用统计的预报模型,可以在一定程度上有效延长厄尔尼诺的预报时效,具有一定实践意义。
To explore the prediction method of El Ni?o and improve its forecast accuracy and forecast period, in this study, on the basis of the fundamental principles of the mean generating function, the intrinsic mode function and predictor variable of a climosequence are added to the common mean generating function model to build the EEMD-based and multivariable mean generating function models. The forecasting experiment on sea temperature indices in Zone NINO3 is conducted through three forecasting schemes. The results show that the forecasting effects for El Ni?o by the two improved models are better than that by the common mean generating function model,which effectively improves the forecast accuracy. Simultaneously, with the statistical forecasting model, the forecast period of El Ni?o can be improved effectively to some extent, with some practical significance.
To explore the prediction method of El Ni?o and improve its forecast accuracy and forecast period, in this study, on the basis of the fundamental principles of the mean generating function, the intrinsic mode function and predictor variable of a climosequence are added to the common mean generating function model to build the EEMD-based and multivariable mean generating function models. The forecasting experiment on sea temperature indices in Zone NINO3 is conducted through three forecasting schemes. The results show that the forecasting effects for El Ni?o by the two improved models are better than that by the common mean generating function model,which effectively improves the forecast accuracy. Simultaneously, with the statistical forecasting model, the forecast period of El Ni?o can be improved effectively to some extent, with some practical significance.
引文
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[2]Trenberth K E.The definition of El Ni?o[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1997,78(12):2771-2777.
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[4]莫杰.全球气候变化及其影响-探索厄尔尼诺之谜[J]国土资源科技管理,2002,19(6):63-68.Mo Jie.Global climate change and consequent influences-A probe into the mystery of El Ni?o[J].Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources,2002,19(6):63-68.
[5]李崇银,穆穆,周广庆,等.ENSO机理及其预测研究[J].大气科学,2008,32(4):761-781.Li Chongyin,Mu Mu,Zhou Guangqing,et al.Mechanism and prediction studies of the ENSO[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2008,32(4):761-781.
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[7]郑飞,朱江,张荣华,等.2015年超级厄尔尼诺事件的成功预报[J].中国科学院院刊,2016,2:251-257.Zheng Fei,Zhu Jiang,Zhang Ronghua,et al.Successful prediction for the super El Ni?o events in 2015[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2016,2:251-257.
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[9]韦成宁.厄尔尼诺与太阳黑子和大气环流的关系及其预报[J].广西气象,2000,21(1):28-29.Wei Chengning.Relationships among El Ni?o,sun spots and atmospheric circulation and its forecast[J].Journal of Guangxi Meteorology,2000,21(1):28-29.
[10]魏松林.1997年强厄尔尼诺事件预报及其检验[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2002,38(1):77-82.Wei Songlin.Prediction and its verification of strong El Ni?o event in 1997[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2002,38(1):77-82.
[11]冯利华,许晓路.基于可公度性的厄尔尼诺事件预报[J].海洋预报,2000,17(4):16-20.Feng Lihua,Xu Xiaolu.Forecast of El Ni?o event based on commensurability[J].Marine Forecasts,2000,17(4):16-20.
[12]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].2版.北京:气象出版社,2007:214-223.Wei Fengying.Modern Climate Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology[M].2th ed.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007:214-223.
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[14]Coifman R R.Wavelet analysis and signal processing[J]Wavelets&Their Applications,1992,9(3):765-780.
[15]薛小杰,蒋晓辉,黄强,等.小波分析在水文序列趋势分析中的应用[J].应用科学学报,2002,20(4):426-428.Guo Xiaojie,Jiang Xiaohui,Huang Qiang,et al.The application of wavelet analysis in hydrological sequence trend analysis[J].Journal of Applied Sciences,2002,20(4):426-428.
[16]Wang T,Zhang M,Yu Q,et al.Comparing the application of EMD and EEMD on time-frequency analysis of seimic signal[J].Journal of Applied Geophysics,201283(6):29-34.
[17]Wang W C,Xu D M,Chau K W,et al.Improved annual rainfall-runoff forecasting using PSO-SVM model based on EEMD[J].Journal of Hydroinformatics,2013,15(4):1377-1390.
[18]魏凤英,曹鸿兴.奇异值分解及其在北美陆地气温与我国降水遥相关中的应用[J].高原气象,1997,V16(2):174-182.Wei Fengying,Cao Hongxing.Singular value decomposition and its application to teleconnection between land air temperature in North America and rainfall in China[J].Plateau Meteorology,1997,V16(2):174-182.
[19]张德宽,杨贤为,邹旭恺.均生函数-最优子集回归在高温极值预测中的应用[J].气象,2003,29(4):44-47.Zhang Dekuan,Yang Xianwei,Zou Xukai.Application of mean generating function-optimal subset regression to the prediction of high temperature extremes[J].Meteorological Monthly,2003,29(4):44-47.
[20]徐力彬,宋余庆,刘毅.基于镜像延拓和窗函数的端点效应抑制方法[J].计算机工程,2015,41(4):112-116.Xu Libin,Song Yuqing,Liu Yi.Restraining method for end effect based on mirror extension and window function[J].Computer Engineering,2015,41(4):112-116.
[21]林爱兰.多元均生函数模型及其在短期气候预测中的应用[J].热带气象学报,2001,17(3):287-292.Lin Ailan.The multiple mean generational function mode and its application in short-range climatic forecast[J]Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2001,17(3):287-292.
[22]任福民,郭艳君,周琴芳,等.小波变换及其对厄尔尼诺研究的初步应用[J].数理统计与管理,1998,3:21-25.Ren Fumin,Guo Yanjun,Zhou Qinfang,et al.Wavelet transform and its preliminary application in El Ni?o study[J].Journal of Applied Statistics and Management1998,3:21-25.
[2]Trenberth K E.The definition of El Ni?o[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1997,78(12):2771-2777.
[3]骆高远.我国对厄尔尼诺,拉尼娜研究综述[J].地理科学,2000,20(3):264-269.Luo Gaoyuan.A general survey of the studies on El Ni?o and La?a in China[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2000,20(3):264-269.
[4]莫杰.全球气候变化及其影响-探索厄尔尼诺之谜[J]国土资源科技管理,2002,19(6):63-68.Mo Jie.Global climate change and consequent influences-A probe into the mystery of El Ni?o[J].Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources,2002,19(6):63-68.
[5]李崇银,穆穆,周广庆,等.ENSO机理及其预测研究[J].大气科学,2008,32(4):761-781.Li Chongyin,Mu Mu,Zhou Guangqing,et al.Mechanism and prediction studies of the ENSO[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2008,32(4):761-781.
[6]Barnston A G,Tippett M K,L'Heureux M L,et al.Skill of real-time seasonal ENSO model predictions during2002-11:Is our capability increasing?[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2012,93(5):631-651.
[7]郑飞,朱江,张荣华,等.2015年超级厄尔尼诺事件的成功预报[J].中国科学院院刊,2016,2:251-257.Zheng Fei,Zhu Jiang,Zhang Ronghua,et al.Successful prediction for the super El Ni?o events in 2015[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2016,2:251-257.
[8]王会军,孙建奇,郎咸梅,等.几年来我国气候年际变异和短期气候预测研究的一些新成果[J].大气科学,2008,32(4):806-814.Wang Huijun,Sun Jianqi,Lang Xianmei,et al.Some new results in the research of the interannual climate variability and short-term climate prediction[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2008,32(4):806-814.
[9]韦成宁.厄尔尼诺与太阳黑子和大气环流的关系及其预报[J].广西气象,2000,21(1):28-29.Wei Chengning.Relationships among El Ni?o,sun spots and atmospheric circulation and its forecast[J].Journal of Guangxi Meteorology,2000,21(1):28-29.
[10]魏松林.1997年强厄尔尼诺事件预报及其检验[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2002,38(1):77-82.Wei Songlin.Prediction and its verification of strong El Ni?o event in 1997[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2002,38(1):77-82.
[11]冯利华,许晓路.基于可公度性的厄尔尼诺事件预报[J].海洋预报,2000,17(4):16-20.Feng Lihua,Xu Xiaolu.Forecast of El Ni?o event based on commensurability[J].Marine Forecasts,2000,17(4):16-20.
[12]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].2版.北京:气象出版社,2007:214-223.Wei Fengying.Modern Climate Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology[M].2th ed.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007:214-223.
[13]解明恩,单巴次仁.均生函数模型在高原汛期降水预报中的应用.高原气象,1998,V17(2):190-197.Xie Mingen,Danba Ciren.The application of mean generating function model to rainfall forecast over plateau in rainy season[J].Plateau Meteorology,1998,V17(2):190-197.
[14]Coifman R R.Wavelet analysis and signal processing[J]Wavelets&Their Applications,1992,9(3):765-780.
[15]薛小杰,蒋晓辉,黄强,等.小波分析在水文序列趋势分析中的应用[J].应用科学学报,2002,20(4):426-428.Guo Xiaojie,Jiang Xiaohui,Huang Qiang,et al.The application of wavelet analysis in hydrological sequence trend analysis[J].Journal of Applied Sciences,2002,20(4):426-428.
[16]Wang T,Zhang M,Yu Q,et al.Comparing the application of EMD and EEMD on time-frequency analysis of seimic signal[J].Journal of Applied Geophysics,201283(6):29-34.
[17]Wang W C,Xu D M,Chau K W,et al.Improved annual rainfall-runoff forecasting using PSO-SVM model based on EEMD[J].Journal of Hydroinformatics,2013,15(4):1377-1390.
[18]魏凤英,曹鸿兴.奇异值分解及其在北美陆地气温与我国降水遥相关中的应用[J].高原气象,1997,V16(2):174-182.Wei Fengying,Cao Hongxing.Singular value decomposition and its application to teleconnection between land air temperature in North America and rainfall in China[J].Plateau Meteorology,1997,V16(2):174-182.
[19]张德宽,杨贤为,邹旭恺.均生函数-最优子集回归在高温极值预测中的应用[J].气象,2003,29(4):44-47.Zhang Dekuan,Yang Xianwei,Zou Xukai.Application of mean generating function-optimal subset regression to the prediction of high temperature extremes[J].Meteorological Monthly,2003,29(4):44-47.
[20]徐力彬,宋余庆,刘毅.基于镜像延拓和窗函数的端点效应抑制方法[J].计算机工程,2015,41(4):112-116.Xu Libin,Song Yuqing,Liu Yi.Restraining method for end effect based on mirror extension and window function[J].Computer Engineering,2015,41(4):112-116.
[21]林爱兰.多元均生函数模型及其在短期气候预测中的应用[J].热带气象学报,2001,17(3):287-292.Lin Ailan.The multiple mean generational function mode and its application in short-range climatic forecast[J]Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2001,17(3):287-292.
[22]任福民,郭艳君,周琴芳,等.小波变换及其对厄尔尼诺研究的初步应用[J].数理统计与管理,1998,3:21-25.Ren Fumin,Guo Yanjun,Zhou Qinfang,et al.Wavelet transform and its preliminary application in El Ni?o study[J].Journal of Applied Statistics and Management1998,3:21-25.