综合交通发展指数构建研究
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摘要
为衡量交通运输行业总体发展水平,把握行业发展中的薄弱环节,亟需一个涵盖综合交通主要方面的综合性指标。在研究指标选取原则及数据可获得性的基础上,构建了综合交通发展评价指标体系,编制了目标层指数及各属性层指数,并对综合交通总体发展水平、各属性层发展情况及其与国内生产总值的关系进行分析。目标层指数分析结果显示,综合交通总体发展向好,呈稳定上升的态势。属性层指数分析结果显示,综合交通在基础设施、服务能力方面发展迅猛,在安全保障方面的稳定性有待进一步提高,在绿色发展方面进展较为缓慢。回归分析结果显示,综合交通发展指数与国内生产总值高度相关,回归模型对样本数据的拟合程度较高,因此综合交通发展指数可用于国内生产总值的预测。
In order to measure the overall development level of the transportation industry and grasp the weak links in the development of the industry, a comprehensive index covering major aspects of comprehensive transportation was needed. On the basis of fully considering the principle of index selection and data availability, a comprehensive transportation development evaluation index system was constructed, the target level index and each attribute level index were compiled, then the overall development level and each attribute level of comprehensive transportation, and the relation between comprehensive transportation development index and GDP(Gross Domestic Product) were analyzed. The target level index analysis results show that the overall development of comprehensive transportation is good and appears a steady upward trend; the attribute level index analysis results show that comprehensive transportation develops rapidly in infrastructure and service capacity, the stability of security needs to be further improved, the progress of green development is relatively slow. The results of correlation and regression analysis show that the comprehensive transportation development index is highly correlated with GDP, the regression model has high fitting degree with the sample data and can be used for the forecast of gross domestic product.
In order to measure the overall development level of the transportation industry and grasp the weak links in the development of the industry, a comprehensive index covering major aspects of comprehensive transportation was needed. On the basis of fully considering the principle of index selection and data availability, a comprehensive transportation development evaluation index system was constructed, the target level index and each attribute level index were compiled, then the overall development level and each attribute level of comprehensive transportation, and the relation between comprehensive transportation development index and GDP(Gross Domestic Product) were analyzed. The target level index analysis results show that the overall development of comprehensive transportation is good and appears a steady upward trend; the attribute level index analysis results show that comprehensive transportation develops rapidly in infrastructure and service capacity, the stability of security needs to be further improved, the progress of green development is relatively slow. The results of correlation and regression analysis show that the comprehensive transportation development index is highly correlated with GDP, the regression model has high fitting degree with the sample data and can be used for the forecast of gross domestic product.
引文
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[4]贾珊珊.基于多方法组合的城市交通指数评价研究[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2008.
[5]张扬,何承,张祎,等.上海市道路交通状态指数简介及应用案例[J].交通与运输,2016,32(3):16-18.
[6]黄厚波.基于AHP-模糊综合评价法的长沙市公交乘客满意度评价研究[D].长沙:中南林业科技大学,2014.
[7]许云飞,马川生,王伟.“山东省交通发展指数”的构建及应用[J].山东交通科技,2002(2):1-6,22.
[8]周健,傅昭南,田茂再.基于TSI指数的中国运输服务指数构建[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(4):965-972.
[9]陶绪林,鲁涛,周晶.交通运输服务指数的构建[J].统计与决策,2013(6):8-11.
[10]王健伟,薛盘芬.中国运输服务指数的编制及应用研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2012(4):72-76.
[11]兰美智.运输业属性分析综述[J].科技经济市场,2016(5):119-120.
[12]李静.交通运输系统与区域经济系统协调发展研究-以中部六省为例[D].郑州:河南财经政法大学,2013.
[13]胡威.效率视角的综合交通运输体系构建研究[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2012.
[14]李静.土地评价指标标准化方法研究[D].兰州:甘肃农业大学,2012.
[15]交通运输部.2009年公路水路运输量统计试行方案[EB/OL].(2013-05-16)[2019-02-04].https://wenku.baidu.com/view/7dc2c3d6d15abe23482f4d55.html.
[16]张炳江.层次分析法及其应用案例[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2014.
[17]杭文.运输经济学[M].南京:东南大学出版社,2016.
[18]国务院办公厅.国务院办公厅关于印发推进运输结构调整三年行动计划(2018-2020)的通知[EB/OL].(2018-10-09)[2019-02-07].http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2018-10/09/content_5328817.htm.
[19]杜强,贾丽艳,严先锋.SPSS统计分析从入门到精通[M].北京:人民邮电出版社,2014.