胶东半岛冬小麦生育期气象干旱变化分析
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摘要
为探明胶东半岛冬小麦生育期气象干旱的规律,更好地为粮食增产增收服务,采用有效降水评估方法和标准化降水指数(SPI),以莱州代表平原,莱阳代表山地丘陵,分析1971-2012年胶东半岛不同地区冬小麦各生育阶段平均有效降水情况和气象干旱发生频率。结果表明:冬小麦生育期平均有效降水占常年降水总量的3%左右;有效降水年际差异极大,平原区和山地丘陵区的冬小麦各个生育时期降水变化趋势不一;干旱累计发生频率为31.0%,轻旱发生次数最多,重旱以上发生次数山地丘陵区显著多于平原区,越冬期重旱最严重,但干旱总体呈减少趋势。尽管山地丘陵区有效降水较多,但与平原区一样,均无法满足当地冬小麦生长发育所需;应加强当地灌溉能力建设,做好水资源统筹分配工作,以保证冬小麦正常生长。
In order to explore the laws of meteorological drought during the winter wheat growth period in Jiaodong Peninsula,and preferably serve the increase in grain production and income,based on the effective precipitation evaluation method and the standardized precipitation index(SPI),the average effective precipitation and the occurrence frequency of meteorological drought in different growth stages of winter wheat in Laizhou Peninsula from 1971 to 2012 were analyzed(Laizhou represents plains,Laiyang represents hills).Results:The average effective precipitation during the winter wheat growth period accounted for about 30% of the total annual precipitation.The interannual effective precipitation varied significantly,and the variation trend of precipitation in every growth period of winter wheat in plain and hilly region was different.The cumulative frequency of drought is 31.0%.The light drought occurrence frequency was the highest,the heavy drought occurrence frequency was higher than that of plains.Heavy drought occurred the most seriously in wintering period,but drought is decreasing in general.Although there were more effective precipitation in hilly planting area,the growth and development of local winter wheat could not be satisfied as it in the plain area.It is necessary to strengthen the construction of local irrigation capacity and do well the overall allocation of water resources so as to ensure the normal growth of winter wheat.
In order to explore the laws of meteorological drought during the winter wheat growth period in Jiaodong Peninsula,and preferably serve the increase in grain production and income,based on the effective precipitation evaluation method and the standardized precipitation index(SPI),the average effective precipitation and the occurrence frequency of meteorological drought in different growth stages of winter wheat in Laizhou Peninsula from 1971 to 2012 were analyzed(Laizhou represents plains,Laiyang represents hills).Results:The average effective precipitation during the winter wheat growth period accounted for about 30% of the total annual precipitation.The interannual effective precipitation varied significantly,and the variation trend of precipitation in every growth period of winter wheat in plain and hilly region was different.The cumulative frequency of drought is 31.0%.The light drought occurrence frequency was the highest,the heavy drought occurrence frequency was higher than that of plains.Heavy drought occurred the most seriously in wintering period,but drought is decreasing in general.Although there were more effective precipitation in hilly planting area,the growth and development of local winter wheat could not be satisfied as it in the plain area.It is necessary to strengthen the construction of local irrigation capacity and do well the overall allocation of water resources so as to ensure the normal growth of winter wheat.
引文
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[10]马剑锋,孙振生,许云涛,等.海阳市冬小麦生长期的气候条件分析[J].安徽农业科学,2015,43(7):212-214.
[11]严美玲,李忠,丛振红,等.水分胁迫对烟农21根系抗旱特性的影响[J].中国农学通报,2010,26(20):113-117.
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[14]江月.胶东半岛海水入侵风险评价系统研究[D].徐州:中国矿业大学,2014.
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[17]陈广泉.基于GIS的莱州湾地区海水入侵灾害风险评价研究[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2010.
[18]丁裕国.降水量Γ分布模式的普适性研究[J].大气科学,1994(5):552-560.
[19] MCKEE T B,DOESKEN N J,KLEIST J.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C]//Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology.Boston,MA:American Meteorological Society,1993,17(22):179-183.
[20]王冰,余锦华,程志攀,等.基于SPI的烟台地区干旱特征分析[J].山东农业大学学报(自然科学版),2015,46(1):16-22.
[21]杨金虎,王润元,姚玉璧,等.甘肃省年有效降水次数的异常特征分析[J].干旱区研究,2006,23(1):109-114.
[22]赵一磊,任福民,李栋梁,等.基于有效降水干旱指数的改进研究[J].气象,2013,39(5):600-607.
[23]黄晚华,隋月,杨晓光,等.基于连续无有效降水日数指标的中国南方作物干旱时空特征[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(4):125-135.
[24]沈彦军,李红军,雷玉平.太行山前平原冬小麦生育期干旱分析——以保定市为例[J].干旱地区农业研究,2013,31(3):222-226-233.
[25]张晓艳,王丽丽,郑纪业,等.山东小麦气象灾害预警指标规范[J].山东农业科学,2014,46(5):127-131.
[26]覃卫坚,廖雪萍,丘平球,等.Morlet小波分析在广西春季降水分析中的应用[J].贵州气象,2007(6):5-9.
[27]杨再禹.Morlet小波分析在三穗县气候分析中的应用[J].贵州气象,2009(2):19-21.
[28]史宝成.作物缺水诊断指标及灌溉控制指标的研究[D].北京:中国水利水电科学研究院,2006.
[29]金华星,胡姗姗,龚年祖,等.滁州市冬小麦生育期作物需水量和降水变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(2):178-183.
[30]马灵玲,占车生,唐伶俐,等.作物需水量研究进展的回顾与展望[J].干旱区地理,2005(4):115-121.
[31]孙爽,杨晓光,李克南,等.中国冬小麦需水量时空特征分析[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(15):72-82.
[32]孙兰东,刘德祥.西北地区热量资源对气候变化的响应特征[J].干旱气象,2008,26(1):8-12.
[33]于群,周发琇,王启.海洋影响下的山东半岛冷流降雪[J].华东师范大学学报(自然科学版),2009,145(3):160-169.
[34]张丰启.山东半岛冷流降雪天气机理研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2011.
[35]郑秀琴.对小麦生长模型WheatSM改进研究[D].北京:中国农业大学,2005.
[36]赵红梅.旱地小麦抗逆御旱栽培技术模式与水分运行机制[D].太原:山西农业大学,2013.
[37]李国强.小麦株型建成及氮素调控研究[D].南京:南京农业大学,2011.
[2]隋月,黄晚华,杨晓光,等.气候变化背景下中国南方地区季节性干旱特征与适应Ⅱ.基于作物水分亏缺指数的越冬粮油作物干旱时空特征[J].应用生态学报,2012,23(9):2467-2476.
[3]黄晚华,隋月,杨晓光,等.基于连续无有效降水日数指标的中国南方作物干旱时空特征[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(4):125-135.
[4]李星敏,杨文峰,高蓓,等.气象与农业业务化干旱指标的研究与应用现状[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2007,35(7):111-116.
[5]张峰.川渝地区农业气象干旱风险区划与损失评估研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2013.
[6]陆甲,李广海,李艳兰,等.改进综合气象干旱指数对广西农业干旱的适用性分析[J].南方农业学报,2013,44(12):2007-2013.
[7]何俊琦,余锦华,高歌,等.西南地区农业旱情的气象干旱指数适应性研究[J].气象科学,2015,35(4):454-461.
[8]陈艳春,何祥登,黄九莲.山东省农田干旱预警模型[J].山东气象,2005,25(2):24-25.
[9]邹俊丽,王升国,崔兆韵,等.小麦干旱综合防御技术应用效果分析[J].山东气象,2010,30(4):18-20.
[10]马剑锋,孙振生,许云涛,等.海阳市冬小麦生长期的气候条件分析[J].安徽农业科学,2015,43(7):212-214.
[11]严美玲,李忠,丛振红,等.水分胁迫对烟农21根系抗旱特性的影响[J].中国农学通报,2010,26(20):113-117.
[12]杜国云.胶东半岛北部经济地理背景研究[J].地域研究与开发,1997(S1):39-42.
[13]杜康康.胶东半岛地质环境综合评价与土地资源可持续利用研究[D].烟台:烟台大学,2011.
[14]江月.胶东半岛海水入侵风险评价系统研究[D].徐州:中国矿业大学,2014.
[15]于春美,陈小三,崔悦.粮食安全:支点在800个产粮大县[N].新农村商报,2010-09-01(A02).
[16]翟慎德.胶莱盆地形成演化与油气形成条件[D].广州:中国科学院研究生院(广州地球化学研究所),2003.
[17]陈广泉.基于GIS的莱州湾地区海水入侵灾害风险评价研究[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2010.
[18]丁裕国.降水量Γ分布模式的普适性研究[J].大气科学,1994(5):552-560.
[19] MCKEE T B,DOESKEN N J,KLEIST J.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C]//Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology.Boston,MA:American Meteorological Society,1993,17(22):179-183.
[20]王冰,余锦华,程志攀,等.基于SPI的烟台地区干旱特征分析[J].山东农业大学学报(自然科学版),2015,46(1):16-22.
[21]杨金虎,王润元,姚玉璧,等.甘肃省年有效降水次数的异常特征分析[J].干旱区研究,2006,23(1):109-114.
[22]赵一磊,任福民,李栋梁,等.基于有效降水干旱指数的改进研究[J].气象,2013,39(5):600-607.
[23]黄晚华,隋月,杨晓光,等.基于连续无有效降水日数指标的中国南方作物干旱时空特征[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(4):125-135.
[24]沈彦军,李红军,雷玉平.太行山前平原冬小麦生育期干旱分析——以保定市为例[J].干旱地区农业研究,2013,31(3):222-226-233.
[25]张晓艳,王丽丽,郑纪业,等.山东小麦气象灾害预警指标规范[J].山东农业科学,2014,46(5):127-131.
[26]覃卫坚,廖雪萍,丘平球,等.Morlet小波分析在广西春季降水分析中的应用[J].贵州气象,2007(6):5-9.
[27]杨再禹.Morlet小波分析在三穗县气候分析中的应用[J].贵州气象,2009(2):19-21.
[28]史宝成.作物缺水诊断指标及灌溉控制指标的研究[D].北京:中国水利水电科学研究院,2006.
[29]金华星,胡姗姗,龚年祖,等.滁州市冬小麦生育期作物需水量和降水变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(2):178-183.
[30]马灵玲,占车生,唐伶俐,等.作物需水量研究进展的回顾与展望[J].干旱区地理,2005(4):115-121.
[31]孙爽,杨晓光,李克南,等.中国冬小麦需水量时空特征分析[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(15):72-82.
[32]孙兰东,刘德祥.西北地区热量资源对气候变化的响应特征[J].干旱气象,2008,26(1):8-12.
[33]于群,周发琇,王启.海洋影响下的山东半岛冷流降雪[J].华东师范大学学报(自然科学版),2009,145(3):160-169.
[34]张丰启.山东半岛冷流降雪天气机理研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2011.
[35]郑秀琴.对小麦生长模型WheatSM改进研究[D].北京:中国农业大学,2005.
[36]赵红梅.旱地小麦抗逆御旱栽培技术模式与水分运行机制[D].太原:山西农业大学,2013.
[37]李国强.小麦株型建成及氮素调控研究[D].南京:南京农业大学,2011.