中国居民生活能源消费影响因素分析——基于城乡“二元”结构
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摘要
通过引入城镇化和城乡"二元"变量,拓展了能源消费分解的对数平均迪氏指数分解方法(LMDI),将中国居民生活能源消费分解为城镇人口规模、乡村人口规模、城镇居民收入水平、乡村居民收入水平、能源强度、能源供给率、城镇居民能源消费结构、乡村居民能源消费结构和城镇化9大效应,发现城镇居民收入水平效应对中国居民生活能源消费量的增加贡献最大,而乡村人口规模效应对中国居民生活能源消费量的减少贡献最大。通过对中国城镇化与居民生活能源消费耦合关系进行分析,发现中国居民生活能源消费与城镇化之间呈现显著的"U"型关系。最后,从提高燃气管网覆盖率、加大对节能家电购买的补贴力度、制定和完善居民区建筑节能标准等方面给出减缓居民生活能源消费增加的对策建议。
The paper expands Logarithmic Mean Decomposition Index( LMDI) method through introducing variables of urbanization and urban-rural dualistic structure,and decomposes residential energy consumption into nine effects as urban population scale,rural population scale,urban residents' income level,rural residents' income level,energy intensity,energy supply rate,urban residents' energy consumption structure,rural residents' energy consumption structure and urbanization. The results show that:effect of urban residents' income level contributes most to the increase of energy consumption in residents' life in China,but effect of rural population scale contributes most to the reduction; and there is a significant " U" relationship between Chinese residents' living energy consumption and urbanization through analyzing the coupling relationship between them. Finally,some policy suggestions are given to slow down the increase of residents' living energy consumption such as improving the coverage rate of gas pipeline network,increasing the subsidy for the purchase of energy saving household appliances,formulating and perfecting the energy saving standards of residential buildings,and so on.
The paper expands Logarithmic Mean Decomposition Index( LMDI) method through introducing variables of urbanization and urban-rural dualistic structure,and decomposes residential energy consumption into nine effects as urban population scale,rural population scale,urban residents' income level,rural residents' income level,energy intensity,energy supply rate,urban residents' energy consumption structure,rural residents' energy consumption structure and urbanization. The results show that:effect of urban residents' income level contributes most to the increase of energy consumption in residents' life in China,but effect of rural population scale contributes most to the reduction; and there is a significant " U" relationship between Chinese residents' living energy consumption and urbanization through analyzing the coupling relationship between them. Finally,some policy suggestions are given to slow down the increase of residents' living energy consumption such as improving the coverage rate of gas pipeline network,increasing the subsidy for the purchase of energy saving household appliances,formulating and perfecting the energy saving standards of residential buildings,and so on.
引文
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[2]STERN P C.What psychology knows about energy conservation[J].American psychology,1992(47):1224-1232.
[3]POORTINGA,WOUTER,STEG,et al.Environmental concern and environmental behavior:a study into household energy use[J].Environment and behavior,2004,36(1):70-93.
[4]OUYANG J,GE J,HOKAO K.Economic analysis of energy-saving renovation measures for urban existing residential buildings in China based on thermal simulation and site investigation[J].Energy policy,2009,37(1):140-149.
[5]CHEN S,LI N,GUAN J,et al.A statistical method to investigate national energy consumption in the residential building sector of China[J].Energy and buildings,2008,40(4):654-665.
[6]SATHAYE J,TYLER S.Transitions in household energy use in urban China,India,the Philippines,Thailand and Hong Kong[J].Annual review of energy and the environment,1991,16(1):295-335.
[7]GLICKSMAN L R,NORFORD L K,GREDEN L V.Energy conservation in Chinese residential buildings:progress and opportunities in design and policy[J].Annual review of energy and the environment,2001,26(1):83-115.
[8]EGLNOND C,JONKERS R,KOK G.One size fits all?Policy instruments should fit the segments of target groups[J].Energy policy,2006(34):3464-3474.
[9]SARDIANOU E.Estimating energy conservation patterns of Greek households[J].Energy policy,2007,35(7):3778-3791
[10]申俊,孙涵,成金华.中国城镇居民能源消费及其影响因素[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2016,18(1):45-53.
[11]孙涵,王洪健,彭丽思,等.中国城镇居民生活完全能源消费影响因素的实证研究[J].中国矿业大学学报(社会科学版),2015(3):53-59.
[12]郭文,孙涛.城镇化对中国区域能源消费及居民生活能源消费的影响[J].中国环境科学,2015,35(10):3166-3176.
[13]PACHAURI S,JIANG L.The household energy transition in India and China[J].Energy policy,2008,36(11):4022-4035.
[14]KREY V,O’NEILL B C,RUIJVEN B,et al.Urban and rural energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in Asia[J].Energy economics,2012(34):S272-S283.
[15]WANG S,FANG C,GUAN X,et al.Urbanisation,energy consumption,and carbon dioxide emissions in China:A panel data analysis of China's provinces[J].Applied energy,2014(136):738-749.
[16]田中华,杨泽亮,蔡睿贤.广东省能源消费碳排放分析及碳排放强度影响因素研究[J].中国环境科学,2015,35(6):1885-1891.
[17]WANG W,LIU X,Zhang M,et al.Using a new generalized LMDI(logarithmic mean Divisia index)method to analyze China’s energy consumption[J].Energy,2014(67):617-622.
[18]XU S C,HE Z X,LONG R Y.Factors that influence carbon emissions due to energy consumption in China:Decomposition analysis using LMDI[J].Applied energy,2014(127):182-193.
[19]秦翊.中国居民生活能源消费研究[D].太原:山西财经大学,2013:39-41.
[20]联合国报告预测2030年中国城镇化水平将达70%[EB/OL].新华网,2013-08-27.http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2013-08/27/c_117117424.htm.