中原经济区城镇居民消费间接碳排放时空格局及其影响因素
|
摘要
从消费视角研究城镇居民消费间接碳排放的历史增长、空间分异规律及影响因素,对发展低碳城市和居民合理消费方式的形成具有重要的意义。本文以中原经济区为例,运用投入产出法测算2002—2014年城镇居民消费间接碳排放,通过空间自相关和空间面板模型分析其空间关联特征及影响因素,得到以下结论:(1)2002—2014年,城镇居民消费间接碳排放呈波动上升的趋势,"衣、食、住"等生存型消费碳排放增长速度较快,"交通、教育娱乐、医疗保健"等发展型消费碳排放增长速度较慢;(2)从空间关联格局来看,城镇居民消费人均碳排放以HH区和LL区的空间正相关类型为主;(3)空间杜宾模型估计结果表明,居民收入水平、产业结构和消费结构是影响该区城镇居民消费间接碳排放的主要因素,另外,消费结构和消费意识两个因素具有明显的空间溢出效应。
The Central Plains Economic Region is undergoing rapid urbanization and industrialization. Living standards and the consumption demands of residents will need to be improved for some time, but indirect carbon emissions from consumption have rigid requirements.From the perspective of consumption, little research has explored historical growth, spatial heterogeneity and factors affecting indirect carbon emissions from urban residential consumption.Understanding these patterns is significant to the development of low carbon cities and formation of reasonable consumption patterns. Here, we calculated the indirect carbon emissions of urban residential consumption in the Central Plains Economic Region using an input-output model,spatial self-correlation and spatial panel modeling. We found that indirect carbon emissions increased from 2002 to 2014. From the consumption structure, the carbon emissions from survival consumption(clothing, food and living) grew faster; development consumption(traffic, education,entertainment and healthcare) grew slower. From spatial association patterns, the spatial correlation type of per capita carbon emissions from urban residential consumption is mainly composed of HH and LL from 2002 to 2014. Spatial Durbin model estimation results show that income level,consumption structure, industrial structure and consumption consciousness are the main influencers of indirect residential carbon emissions. Factors such as consumption consciousness and consumption structure have spatial spillover effects.
The Central Plains Economic Region is undergoing rapid urbanization and industrialization. Living standards and the consumption demands of residents will need to be improved for some time, but indirect carbon emissions from consumption have rigid requirements.From the perspective of consumption, little research has explored historical growth, spatial heterogeneity and factors affecting indirect carbon emissions from urban residential consumption.Understanding these patterns is significant to the development of low carbon cities and formation of reasonable consumption patterns. Here, we calculated the indirect carbon emissions of urban residential consumption in the Central Plains Economic Region using an input-output model,spatial self-correlation and spatial panel modeling. We found that indirect carbon emissions increased from 2002 to 2014. From the consumption structure, the carbon emissions from survival consumption(clothing, food and living) grew faster; development consumption(traffic, education,entertainment and healthcare) grew slower. From spatial association patterns, the spatial correlation type of per capita carbon emissions from urban residential consumption is mainly composed of HH and LL from 2002 to 2014. Spatial Durbin model estimation results show that income level,consumption structure, industrial structure and consumption consciousness are the main influencers of indirect residential carbon emissions. Factors such as consumption consciousness and consumption structure have spatial spillover effects.
引文
[1]Bullard C W,Herendeen R A.The energy cost of goods and services[J].Energy Policy,1975,3(4):268-278.
[2]董会娟,耿涌.基于投入产出分析的北京市居民消费碳足迹研究[J].资源科学,2012,34(3):494-501.[Dong H J,Geng Y.Study on carbon footprint of the household consumption in Beijing based on input-output analysis[J].Resources Science,2012,34(3):494-501.]
[3]Bin S,Dowlatabadi H.Consumer lifestyle approach to US energy use and the related CO2emissions[J].Energy Policy,2005,33(2):197-208.
[4]Baiocchi G,Minx J.The impact of social factors and consumer behavior on carbon dioxide emissions in the United Kingdom[J].Journal of Industrial Ecology,2010,14(1):50-72.
[5]Pachauri S,Spreng D.Direct and indirect energy requirements of households in India[J].Energy Policy,2002,30(6):511-523.
[6]杜威,樊胜岳.城镇化进程中居民生活碳排放动态特征分析[J].生态经济,2016,32(5):48-52.[Du W,Fan S Y.Dynamic analysis of carbon emissions for urban and rural residents in the process of urbanization[J].Ecological Economy,2016,32(5):48-52.]
[7]冯玲,吝涛,赵千钧.城镇居民生活能耗与碳排放动态特征分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(5):93-100.[Feng L,Lin T,Zhao Q J.Analysis of the dynamic characteristics of urban household energy use and carbon emissions in China[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2011,21(5):93-100.]
[8]张艳芳,张宏运.陕西省居民消费碳排放测算与分析[J].陕西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,44(2):98-105.[Zhang Y F,Zhang H Y.Calculation and analysis on carbon emission of residents’consumption in Shaanxi Province[J].Journal of Shaanxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2016,44(2):98-105.]
[9]史建军,张彩虹.居民消费碳排放研究-以河南省为例[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(6):25-30.[Shi J J,Zhang C H.On carbon emissions of residents consumption-a case of Henan Province[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2016,30(6):25-30.]
[10]吴开亚,郭旭,王文秀.上海市居民消费碳排放的实证分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(5):535-543.[Wu K Y,Guo X,Wang W X.Empirical analysis on carbon emissions of residents consumption in Shanghai[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2013,22(5):535-543.]
[11]曾静静,张志强,曲建升,等.家庭碳排放计算方法分析评价[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(10):1341-1352.[Zeng J J,Zhang Z Q,Qv J S,et al.Analysis and evaluation of methods for household carbon emissions calculation[J].Progress in Geography,2012,31(10):1341-1352.]
[12]申俊,孙涵,成金华.中国城镇居民完全能源消费的空间计量分析[J].资源科学,2016,38(3):439-449.[Shen J,Sun H,Cheng JH.Spatial econometric analysis of the total energy consumption of urban residents in China[J].Resources Science,2016,38(3):439-449.]
[13]李艳梅,张红丽.城市化对家庭CO2排放影响的区域差异[J].资源科学,2016,38(3):545-556.[Li Y M,Zhang H L.Regional differences in the impact of urbanization on household carbon dioxide emissions based on panel data for 30 provinces in China[J].Resources Science,2016,38(3):545-556.]
[14]Wang S J,Fang C L,Ma H T,et al.Spatial differences and multimechanism of carbon footprint based on GWR model in provincial China[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2014,24(4):612-630.
[15]刘莉娜,曲建升,黄雨生,等.中国居民生活碳排放的区域差异及影响因素分析[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(8):1364-1377.[Liu L N,Qu J S,Huang Y S,et al.Analyze on the spatial-temporal pattern and influence factors of China’s per capita household carbon emission[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2016,31(8):1364-1377.]
[16]申俊,孙涵,成金华.中国城镇居民能源消费及其影响因素[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2016,18(1):45-53.[Shen J,Sun H,Cheng J H.Energy consumption and influence factors of urban residents in China[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition),2016,18(1):45-53.]
[17]刘晔,刘丹,张林秀.中国省域城镇居民碳排放驱动因素分析[J].地理科学,2016,36(5):691-696.[Liu Y,Liu D,Zhang L X.Driving factors analysis of carbon emissions in Chinese provincial urban households.[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(5):691-696.]
[18]Wang S J,Fang C L,Wang Y.Spatiotemporal variations of energyrelated CO2emissions in China and its influencing factors:an empirical analysis based on provincial panel data[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2016,55:505-515.
[19]万文玉,赵雪雁,王伟军.中国城市居民生活能源碳排放的时空格局及影响因素分析[J].环境科学学报,2016,36(9):3445-3455.[Wan W Y,Zhao X Y,Wang W J.Spatial-temporal patterns and impact factors analysis on carbon emissions from energy consumption of urban residents in China[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2016,36(9):3445-3455.]
[20]程叶青,王哲野,马靖.中国区域创新的时空动态分析[J].地理学报,2014,69(12):1779-1789.[Cheng Y Q,Wang Z Y,Ma J.Analyzing the space-time dynamics of innovation in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(12):1779-1789.]
[21]国家统计局.中国地区投入产出表2002,2007,2012[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2008,2011,2016.[National Bureau of Statistics.Chinese Regional Input-Output Tables of 2002,2007,2012[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2008,2011,2016.]
[22]河南省统计局.河南统计年鉴2007,2012[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2007,2012.[Henan Province Bureau of Statistics.Henan Statistical Yearbook of 2007,2012[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2007,2012.]
[23]国家统计局.中国城市统计年鉴2003-2015[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2003-2015.[National Bureau of Statistics.China City Statistical Yearbook 2003-2015[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2003-2015.]
[24]国家统计局.中国区域经济统计年鉴2003-2015[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2003-2015.[National Bureau of Statistics.China Statistical Yearbook for Regional Economy 2003-2015[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2003-2015.]
[25]张丽君.城市碳基能源代谢结构分异与演变机理[D].开封:河南大学,2013.[Zhang L J.Structure Differentiation and Evolution Mechanism of Urban Carbon-Based Energy Metabolism[D].Kaifeng:Henan University,2013.]
[26]马晓微,叶奕,杜佳,等.基于投入产出中美居民生活消费间接碳排放研究[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2016,18(1):24-29.[Ma X W,Ye Y,Du J,et al.Calculation and analysis on indirect carbon emissions from household consumption between China and the United States based on input-output model[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology(Social Science edition),2016,18(1):24-29.]
[27]朱勤,彭希哲,吴开亚.基于投入产出模型的居民消费品载能碳排放测算与分析[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(12):2018-2029.[Zhu Q,Peng X Z,Wu K Y.Calculation and analysis on indirect carbon emissions from residential consumption based on InputOutput model[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2012,27(12):2018-2029.]
[28]范玲,汪东.我国居民间接能源消费碳排放的测算及分解分析[J].生态经济,2014,30(7):28-32.[Fan L,Wang D.Calculation and decomposition analysis on carbon emissions of indirect residents’consumption in China[J].Ecological Economy,2014,30(7):28-32.]
[29]Ehrlich P R,Holdren J P.Impact of population growth[J].Science,1971,171(3977):1212-1217.
[30]Dietz T,Rosa E A.Rethinking the environmental impacts of population,affluence and technology[J].Human Ecology Review,1994,2(1):277-300.
[31]张腾飞,杨俊,盛鹏飞.城镇化对中国碳排放的影响及作用渠道[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(2):47-57.[Zhang T F,Yang J,Sheng P F.The impacts and channels of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions in China[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2016,26(2):47-57.]
[32]田成诗,郝艳,李文静,等.中国人口年龄结构对碳排放的影响[J].资源科学,2015,37(12):2309-2318.[Tian C S,Hao Y,Li WJ,et al.Population age structure effects on carbon emission in China[J].Resources Science,2015,37(12):2309-2318.]
[33]黄蕊,王铮,丁冠群,等.基于STIRPAT模型的江苏省能源消费碳排放影响因素分析及趋势预测[J].地理研究,2016,35(4):781-789.[Huang R,Wang Z,Ding G Q,et al.Trend prediction and analysis of influencing factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption in Jiangsu Province based on STIRPAT model[J].Geographical Research,2016,35(4):781-789.]
[34]金煜,陈钊,陆铭.中国的地区工业集聚:经济地理、新经济地理与经济政策[J].经济研究,2006,(4):79-89.[Jin Y,Chen Z,Lu M.Industry agglomeration in China economic geography,new economic geography and policy[J].Economic Research Journal,2006,(4):79-89.]
[2]董会娟,耿涌.基于投入产出分析的北京市居民消费碳足迹研究[J].资源科学,2012,34(3):494-501.[Dong H J,Geng Y.Study on carbon footprint of the household consumption in Beijing based on input-output analysis[J].Resources Science,2012,34(3):494-501.]
[3]Bin S,Dowlatabadi H.Consumer lifestyle approach to US energy use and the related CO2emissions[J].Energy Policy,2005,33(2):197-208.
[4]Baiocchi G,Minx J.The impact of social factors and consumer behavior on carbon dioxide emissions in the United Kingdom[J].Journal of Industrial Ecology,2010,14(1):50-72.
[5]Pachauri S,Spreng D.Direct and indirect energy requirements of households in India[J].Energy Policy,2002,30(6):511-523.
[6]杜威,樊胜岳.城镇化进程中居民生活碳排放动态特征分析[J].生态经济,2016,32(5):48-52.[Du W,Fan S Y.Dynamic analysis of carbon emissions for urban and rural residents in the process of urbanization[J].Ecological Economy,2016,32(5):48-52.]
[7]冯玲,吝涛,赵千钧.城镇居民生活能耗与碳排放动态特征分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(5):93-100.[Feng L,Lin T,Zhao Q J.Analysis of the dynamic characteristics of urban household energy use and carbon emissions in China[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2011,21(5):93-100.]
[8]张艳芳,张宏运.陕西省居民消费碳排放测算与分析[J].陕西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,44(2):98-105.[Zhang Y F,Zhang H Y.Calculation and analysis on carbon emission of residents’consumption in Shaanxi Province[J].Journal of Shaanxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2016,44(2):98-105.]
[9]史建军,张彩虹.居民消费碳排放研究-以河南省为例[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(6):25-30.[Shi J J,Zhang C H.On carbon emissions of residents consumption-a case of Henan Province[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2016,30(6):25-30.]
[10]吴开亚,郭旭,王文秀.上海市居民消费碳排放的实证分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(5):535-543.[Wu K Y,Guo X,Wang W X.Empirical analysis on carbon emissions of residents consumption in Shanghai[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2013,22(5):535-543.]
[11]曾静静,张志强,曲建升,等.家庭碳排放计算方法分析评价[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(10):1341-1352.[Zeng J J,Zhang Z Q,Qv J S,et al.Analysis and evaluation of methods for household carbon emissions calculation[J].Progress in Geography,2012,31(10):1341-1352.]
[12]申俊,孙涵,成金华.中国城镇居民完全能源消费的空间计量分析[J].资源科学,2016,38(3):439-449.[Shen J,Sun H,Cheng JH.Spatial econometric analysis of the total energy consumption of urban residents in China[J].Resources Science,2016,38(3):439-449.]
[13]李艳梅,张红丽.城市化对家庭CO2排放影响的区域差异[J].资源科学,2016,38(3):545-556.[Li Y M,Zhang H L.Regional differences in the impact of urbanization on household carbon dioxide emissions based on panel data for 30 provinces in China[J].Resources Science,2016,38(3):545-556.]
[14]Wang S J,Fang C L,Ma H T,et al.Spatial differences and multimechanism of carbon footprint based on GWR model in provincial China[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2014,24(4):612-630.
[15]刘莉娜,曲建升,黄雨生,等.中国居民生活碳排放的区域差异及影响因素分析[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(8):1364-1377.[Liu L N,Qu J S,Huang Y S,et al.Analyze on the spatial-temporal pattern and influence factors of China’s per capita household carbon emission[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2016,31(8):1364-1377.]
[16]申俊,孙涵,成金华.中国城镇居民能源消费及其影响因素[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2016,18(1):45-53.[Shen J,Sun H,Cheng J H.Energy consumption and influence factors of urban residents in China[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition),2016,18(1):45-53.]
[17]刘晔,刘丹,张林秀.中国省域城镇居民碳排放驱动因素分析[J].地理科学,2016,36(5):691-696.[Liu Y,Liu D,Zhang L X.Driving factors analysis of carbon emissions in Chinese provincial urban households.[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(5):691-696.]
[18]Wang S J,Fang C L,Wang Y.Spatiotemporal variations of energyrelated CO2emissions in China and its influencing factors:an empirical analysis based on provincial panel data[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2016,55:505-515.
[19]万文玉,赵雪雁,王伟军.中国城市居民生活能源碳排放的时空格局及影响因素分析[J].环境科学学报,2016,36(9):3445-3455.[Wan W Y,Zhao X Y,Wang W J.Spatial-temporal patterns and impact factors analysis on carbon emissions from energy consumption of urban residents in China[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2016,36(9):3445-3455.]
[20]程叶青,王哲野,马靖.中国区域创新的时空动态分析[J].地理学报,2014,69(12):1779-1789.[Cheng Y Q,Wang Z Y,Ma J.Analyzing the space-time dynamics of innovation in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(12):1779-1789.]
[21]国家统计局.中国地区投入产出表2002,2007,2012[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2008,2011,2016.[National Bureau of Statistics.Chinese Regional Input-Output Tables of 2002,2007,2012[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2008,2011,2016.]
[22]河南省统计局.河南统计年鉴2007,2012[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2007,2012.[Henan Province Bureau of Statistics.Henan Statistical Yearbook of 2007,2012[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2007,2012.]
[23]国家统计局.中国城市统计年鉴2003-2015[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2003-2015.[National Bureau of Statistics.China City Statistical Yearbook 2003-2015[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2003-2015.]
[24]国家统计局.中国区域经济统计年鉴2003-2015[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2003-2015.[National Bureau of Statistics.China Statistical Yearbook for Regional Economy 2003-2015[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2003-2015.]
[25]张丽君.城市碳基能源代谢结构分异与演变机理[D].开封:河南大学,2013.[Zhang L J.Structure Differentiation and Evolution Mechanism of Urban Carbon-Based Energy Metabolism[D].Kaifeng:Henan University,2013.]
[26]马晓微,叶奕,杜佳,等.基于投入产出中美居民生活消费间接碳排放研究[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2016,18(1):24-29.[Ma X W,Ye Y,Du J,et al.Calculation and analysis on indirect carbon emissions from household consumption between China and the United States based on input-output model[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology(Social Science edition),2016,18(1):24-29.]
[27]朱勤,彭希哲,吴开亚.基于投入产出模型的居民消费品载能碳排放测算与分析[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(12):2018-2029.[Zhu Q,Peng X Z,Wu K Y.Calculation and analysis on indirect carbon emissions from residential consumption based on InputOutput model[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2012,27(12):2018-2029.]
[28]范玲,汪东.我国居民间接能源消费碳排放的测算及分解分析[J].生态经济,2014,30(7):28-32.[Fan L,Wang D.Calculation and decomposition analysis on carbon emissions of indirect residents’consumption in China[J].Ecological Economy,2014,30(7):28-32.]
[29]Ehrlich P R,Holdren J P.Impact of population growth[J].Science,1971,171(3977):1212-1217.
[30]Dietz T,Rosa E A.Rethinking the environmental impacts of population,affluence and technology[J].Human Ecology Review,1994,2(1):277-300.
[31]张腾飞,杨俊,盛鹏飞.城镇化对中国碳排放的影响及作用渠道[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(2):47-57.[Zhang T F,Yang J,Sheng P F.The impacts and channels of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions in China[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2016,26(2):47-57.]
[32]田成诗,郝艳,李文静,等.中国人口年龄结构对碳排放的影响[J].资源科学,2015,37(12):2309-2318.[Tian C S,Hao Y,Li WJ,et al.Population age structure effects on carbon emission in China[J].Resources Science,2015,37(12):2309-2318.]
[33]黄蕊,王铮,丁冠群,等.基于STIRPAT模型的江苏省能源消费碳排放影响因素分析及趋势预测[J].地理研究,2016,35(4):781-789.[Huang R,Wang Z,Ding G Q,et al.Trend prediction and analysis of influencing factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption in Jiangsu Province based on STIRPAT model[J].Geographical Research,2016,35(4):781-789.]
[34]金煜,陈钊,陆铭.中国的地区工业集聚:经济地理、新经济地理与经济政策[J].经济研究,2006,(4):79-89.[Jin Y,Chen Z,Lu M.Industry agglomeration in China economic geography,new economic geography and policy[J].Economic Research Journal,2006,(4):79-89.]